Bad Economic Predictions

[Leisher]

Want more housing? Make it easier to build. The end. I'm talking to you, almost every city and state in America.

Currently, sellers outnumber buyers in record numbers.

I agree with your sentiment, but that's not the only problem. Houses are currently priced WAY above what they should be, and interest rates just hit 7% a little bit ago.

I believe the demand is still there and that chart is bullshit. At least in the area we want to build in.

It will definitely vary by area. Also, I wonder how much data centers play into this all. They are tens of thousands of open construction jobs for data centers.

aside from their illegal labor being gone.

"illegal labor" otherwise known as modern slavery. Also, shitty construction companies hire them because they're cheap, but they also do shit work. I went down this rabbit hole one evening and was pretty shocked at how poorly modern homes are built these days. Yes, the companies' demand to take shortcuts to save money played a role, but so did all of their cheap, unskilled illegal labor.

Although, a recent article about the immigration crackdown showed how even legal immigrants didn't want to work construction due to raids picking them up as well, and the obscene amount of time it takes to get released, even if legal.

I don't blame them. I also don't blame the people enforcing the law. I blame the people who broke the law and those that enabled, hell, encouraged them.

[Cakedaddy]

I've worked with a lot of crews. I don't see the lack of skills you do. They are typically ranked as some of the better workers. It's annoying when they don't speak english (or at least act like they don't). But they can knock out some work. Granted, we aren't building houses, but they are good a what they are doing.

I also believe, put a bunch of them together, and they are a well oiled machine that has each other's backs. When they aren't working with their own. . . I think that's where you see the performance drop. You get a mexican business owner and a mexican crew, you're gonna get some work done.

[Leisher]

The videos I watched the one evening was of various home inspectors around the country going to newly constructed homes and showing how poorly they were built. And we're not talking about slum homes, these were really nice builds in new subdivisions in well off areas.

Yeah, the home is standing and is built quick, but the craftmanship is gone and the home will start having issues. Things don't line up (like trim, brickwork, etc.), shortcuts taken all over, holes left in hardwood flooring in areas where they won't be seen like closets, code violations, sloppy paint work, and so on.

As to your experience, there will always be exceptions to the rule. There are going to be illegals who are trained craftsmen and know what they're doing.

[TheCatt]

I feel like issues like that have always existed, you're just seeing it now, and you don't see any videos about well built houses

[Leisher]

No argument that there are also shitty ones built without illegal labor.

However, using cheap illegal labor makes it far more profitable and easier to be a shitty company making shitty homes. Most builders, despite what you see in movies, aren't bleeding hearts just trying to give people a chance. They're hiring illegals to keep their costs as low as possible, and exploiting those workers. If they truly cared, they'd be assisting those men and women in getting their work visas/green cards/citizenship. They don't because they only care about maximizing profits, and that means they don't give a shit what kind of work their folks do either. Is the building standing so they can sell it? Then job done.

And do you not watch HGTV? They show well built stuff all the time. Even when they're repairing things or remodeling, they always point out well built stuff.

[Cakedaddy]

I feel like issues like that have always existed, you're just seeing it now, and you don't see any videos about well built houses

As someone who does a lot of home improvement and remodeling (ok, maybe not a LOT, but I bet more than the average home owner), I have come to the conclusion that NO contractor owns a square or a level. NONE of the walls in your home are square or straight. EVERYTHING is fixed with trim and/or caulk.

Things not lining up is the rule, not the exception.

[TheCatt]

And do you not watch HGTV?

[Leisher]

As someone who does a lot of home improvement and remodeling (ok, maybe not a LOT, but I bet more than the average home owner), I have come to the conclusion that NO contractor owns a square or a level. NONE of the walls in your home are square or straight. EVERYTHING is fixed with trim and/or caulk.

Things not lining up is the rule, not the exception.

Just because you don't line things up doesn't mean competent people don't. *shrug*

I do agree about the squares and levels though. It's interesting to watch the real pros at this stuff and what tools/items they actually use to line things up.

And I apologize Catt. I forgot who I was talking to. Ask your help about HGTV, they probably watch it. Us 99%ers watch it when we're doing home projects or in the housing market. It can be very helpful and you can get good ideas.

[Cakedaddy]

My things don't line up, because I make them straight and level! I learned a long time ago that you have to make things match the contour of your walls, not straight and level.

[Leisher]

What kind of fucked up mud hut do you live in?

[Cakedaddy]

I have come to the conclusion that you watch HGTV for the drama, or as Catt implied, because you are a bitch, not to learn because you OBVIOUSLY have never done a home improvement!

[Leisher]

Bitch please.

I was doing DIY pre-YouTube.

In all seriousness, I give my wife a lot of credit for my handy man abilities. My mom is a "call a professional person", and my dad was too busy working or golfing to do anything around the house. Her parents are both DIY folks, so I've been doing DIY projects for 30 years now.

There's not much one can do to a house that I haven't done at this point. Plumbing, electrical, flooring, your mom, cabinetry, pool, doors, windows, etc.

[TheCatt]

My mom is a "call a professional person", and my dad was too busy working or golfing to do anything around the house.

Your bio dad is a gigolo?

[Leisher]

Where do you think I learned it?

[Leisher]

First time home buyers, then and now:

[TheCatt]

C'mon, 8.5% down payment versus 10%? Small issue, but yeah, keep it consistent.

Houses man. Who knew 60 years of terrible policies would do this?

[Leisher]

8.5% down payment versus 10%? Small issue, but yeah, keep it consistent.

I didn't even notice that, and agree with you.

Who knew 60 years of terrible policies would do this?

Policies and greed.

Something needs to give because we're rushing head first into socialism or a revolution. I'd prefer we avoid both.

[Leisher]

In more fun economic news, Oracle lays off 30K.

I've seen articles saying it's to fund AI.

Jobs are NEVER coming back.

[TheCatt]

Something needs to give because we're rushing head first into socialism or a revolution. I'd prefer we avoid both.

So if we make housing cheaper, people complain cuz their houses get less valuable. At any rate, fuck old people. Get rid of all favorable tax treatments for home ownership that advantage any group over another.

Jobs are NEVER coming back.

I just don't know how true this is. concerning for our future generations, or people still working today.

I'm also not sure where the hype/real factor is. My brother is using Claude Code with agents to do a bunch of stuff, and seems more productive than 1 developer, but he also has to babysit all the shit it does.

[Leisher]

So if we make housing cheaper, people complain cuz their houses get less valuable.

It's a fair complaint from them, but ultimately impossible to avoid. What we can do is mitigate the damage done. For example, don't build low cost housing in middle class or above areas. Building apartments in a higher cost suburb is fine, but they need to be high end.

And if anyone says, "we build low cost here to help people escape the worse parts of town", tell them to fuck off. That shit doesn't work. It might for one family, but the majority just bring the worse parts of town to that area. Turns out, it's who you associate with and not where.

Get rid of all favorable tax treatments for home ownership that advantage any group over another.

Agree, although I don't know why you're such a self-hating elderly person...

People shouldn't be forced from their homes when they retire, but it should be their responsibility to plan for retirement, and that means being fiscally responsible. BTW, we should take away the elderly's right to vote on schools levies since all they do is vote against them because they're selfish cunts. (And I say that as someone who also believes school boards should be independently audited annually.)

he also has to babysit all the shit it does.

I have heard that a lot about AI.