"High-Level Estimates"

Post by **thibodeaux** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:58 pm

You're given a single sheet of paper that contains a block diagram with a few notes on it. You're asked for a "high-level estimate" of how long it would take you to implement the system "specified" by the paper.

I mean really. How useful is that?

Post by **GORDON** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:01 pm

Easy. "High level? Anywhere from 6 weeks to 5 years. Want to talk specifics?"

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:58 pm

I give all estimates in ranges now, with the broadness of the range tied to the specificity of the request.

So someone gives me something that sounds like 12 weeks, but with so few details, that I don't really know?

I say "Well, it depends on what the details are, but could take from 8 to 32 weeks, and I'd expect it to take 18." So it's a skewed distribution, and weighted past what I really think, so that people don't get married to some short, improbable number.

Then, as more details are known, I narrow down the range, and adjust the expected value.

Malcolm · Post by **Malcolm** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:58 pm

thibodeaux wrote:You're given a single sheet of paper that contains a block diagram with a few notes on it. You're asked for a "high-level estimate" of how long it would take you to implement the system "specified" by the paper.

I mean really. How useful is that?

Depends how good the estimator is at predicting what the estimatee wants to hear.

Post by **thibodeaux** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:43 pm

Yes, yes, but how is it useful to anybody? That's what I don't understand.

Post by **GORDON** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:47 pm

It isn't usefull, so you illustrate the problem by saying what I said.

Malcolm · Post by **Malcolm** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:49 pm

thibodeaux wrote:Yes, yes, but how is it useful to anybody? That's what I don't understand.

It gives the illusion that work is getting done so a manager can get his boss off his back.

Post by **GORDON** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:57 pm

I've known for a long time that in some situations, I lack tact.

Combat and business being the majority of those situations.

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:04 pm

Gives them a rough idea as to whether the costs are worth the potential benefits?

Malcolm · Post by **Malcolm** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:22 pm

TheCatt wrote:Gives them a rough idea as to whether the costs are worth the potential benefits?

Couldn't that just be explained informally in a sentence or two?

Malcolm · Post by **Malcolm** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:24 pm

GORDON wrote:I've known for a long time that in some situations, I lack tact.

Combat and business being the majority of those situations.

The less I hate the job, the more inclined I am to devote more energy appearing not to hate people, which is a close approximation of my definition of tact.

Post by **thibodeaux** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:53 pm

TheCatt wrote:Gives them a rough idea as to whether the costs are worth the potential benefits?

Might as well use the magic 8-ball if the numbers are all pulled out of somebody's sphincter.

DoctorChaos · Post by **DoctorChaos** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 8:07 am

What are you complaining about? That's probably the most detailed spec I've seen in a year. As for the magic 8 ball, that and the dart board are the most effective tools of management ever created.