I don't trust anything from the CBO. They have a unique way of looking at things that is policy based and seems to be very short term. Not saying they aren't good at what they do, just saying they look at things completely differently than a normal economic person would.
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:53 pm
the key takeaway (looking at that ranges, and just understanding how complicated economics is): no one knows.
I find that to be the most honest and fair answer. Unfortunately, it's the worst one too.
While there are some states seemingly getting away with it, have there been deep dives into those states yet to see how COL, private business, mom & pops, job openings, job deletion, job creation, etc. have all been affected? I really don't think it's fair or wise to say, "See, Florida does it" and assume everything is fine. I think we need a real, unbiased (is such a thing even possible anymore?) study done so the raw data can tell us what has happened after wages went up.
Jumping from $7.25 to $15 nationally would "have to" have a dramatic impact on corporate profits. Not for all, obviously, but definitely for folks like McDs, BK, gas stations, and so on. To keep Wall St happy I would think those major chains would immediately look at cutting jobs, which we see them doing already with automation. So my hesitation doesn't come from any place of maliciousness or a "let them eat cake" mindset, but rather I don't trust corporations. I'm worried doubling minimum wage will cost jobs overall and raise the COL.
Even doing studies on the current states isn't guaranteed to show us exactly what will happen if it goes nationwide, but it gives us a more educated guess than just speculation.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”