Palm released his 2020 college football bowl projections on Wednesday morning in the midst of all sorts of uncertainty due to COVID-19 pandemic. He's got 74 of 76 teams making bowl games, largely in part due to the reduction of so many teams nationally due to the cancellation/postponements of the fall seasons by the Pac-12, Big Ten, Mountain West and MAC, along with a few other teams. The only two teams he doesn't have going to bowls? Arkansas and East Carolina, each of which he expects to go 0-for. He also has Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech going winless, but qualifying for bowl games due to their APR standing.
NCAA
NCAA
Bowl season is going to be an extra special something this year.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
Nebraska players file lawsuit again the B1G today. Here's hoping more follow.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
NCAA
I have never seen a court move so swiftly.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
NCAA
It happens sometimes due to the immediate nature of cases (see the President and suppressing the release of some of his documents, etc). But yes, still surprised.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
NCAA
UNC reported 0 infections in their football + related programs (weight training, etc).
Absolutely true. I wonder if they could still reverse course and salvage?If anything, Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren and the university presidents jumped the gun on canceling the fall football season. There was no need to make a final decision on Aug. 11, a mere six days after the conference had a big unveiling of its 2020 football schedule. (Hey, that Thursday night opener at Illinois is exactly a week away! Oh wait.)
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
It's only a blunder if the others play and no one gets sick. If they play and everyone gets sick, THAT would be the biggest blunder.
I don't get the desire to group people up who you KNOW will get sick. How many teams have infected players now? How many players have been caught sneaking friends/lovers into the bubble or leaving the bubble to visit strippers, etc. To think that this large group of notoriously irresponsible people will follow all guidelines, and be completely safe is ridiculous! They WILL gets sick/be exposed, etc. Are any colleges/schools clean and responsible right now?
NCAA
And all the students got sent home. Super clean! And, if you are caught breaking team rules (being where you are not supposed to me, sneaking in people), you can get kicked off the team.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
Literally zero NCAA athletes will die from the virus this year because of playing sports.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
Because so many of them are not playing sports. 
I truly hope that is right. But I hope that also extends to the coaches, refs, trainers, field crew, and other support staff/representatives. And that no one that gets exposed during the events then takes it home with them to infect other people not involved in the sport.
My real argument is that there WILL be incidents of exposure and infection. And those could, even slightly, lead to death. You are obviously playing the odds and betting that no one will die. I don't think college football and trying to ensuring a good pick in the draft is worth the risk.
I truly hope that is right. But I hope that also extends to the coaches, refs, trainers, field crew, and other support staff/representatives. And that no one that gets exposed during the events then takes it home with them to infect other people not involved in the sport.
My real argument is that there WILL be incidents of exposure and infection. And those could, even slightly, lead to death. You are obviously playing the odds and betting that no one will die. I don't think college football and trying to ensuring a good pick in the draft is worth the risk.
NCAA
For people under 50, which covers the majority of peopled involved, the infection fatality rate is 0.009%. That means if EVERY single one of the people got the virus, (and let's assume 150 people per football team, ~76 teams, iirc, so 11,400 people), we would expect 1.03 people to die. But, that IFR is based on historical data, whereas treatment for the virus has improved. Detection has improved. (So the denominator is likely larger than used in the 0.009% estimate, and the numerator likely smaller). Realistically, even if everyone is exposed, only 60% will get it. So that drops our expected death to ~0.6 people. Additionally, not everyone will get exposed. Many programs have already had small clusters, and isolated people correctly, and basically erased the virus, assuming protocols hold. Even if they don't, the monitoring will keep the virus from spreading. So if only 20% are exposed, and 60% of those get it, we're down to an expected death from the virus of 0.12 people. Driving your car, is riskier (1.42 people killed per 10,000 vehicles per year). Heck, playing football itself is riskier, as "On average, 2 NCAA football players die per season" (Granted, that probably includes more NCAA divisions, but even if you divide 2 by 4, you end up with 0.5).
That's the absolute risk. But what about the relative risk? Those same 11,400 people are now getting more monitoring (including heart scans) and attention than the regular population by, I dunno, 100x? What if they had just stayed in their un-monitored normal lives? I'm guessing that they are in better hands now than the general public, and therefore their relative risk is actually < 0.
I could be wrong. Estimates are based on what we know about the virus, and what's been stated about protocols/controls/testing/etc.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
But you are ignoring all of the support staff. 11k players, but how many coaches, water boys, refs, guys who mow the fields (just kidding. I know women mow too), locker room cleaning staff, guy who drives the cart for injured players, security guards. I think that's all the people that support football games. . . MANY of them are over 50, over weight, and at much higher risk of death. non-athlete lives matter!
NCAA
I assumed 50 support staff per team. 100 players. Though maybe that only includes scholarship players. Also, used the IFR for 20-49 as I figured that will catch most of those support people. Some of them are over 50, but you do not know that many of them are. A lot of them are grad students.Cakedaddy wrote: But you are ignoring all of the support staff. 11k players, but how many coaches, water boys, refs, guys who mow the fields (just kidding. I know women mow too), locker room cleaning staff, guy who drives the cart for injured players, security guards. I think that's all the people that support football games. . . MANY of them are over 50, over weight, and at much higher risk of death. non-athlete lives matter!
But guess what? Those people are getting the same testing and monitoring.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
Big ten eyes January or Thanksgiving restart. In indoor stadiums. Great for the virus.
It's not me, it's someone else.
NCAA
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
NCAA
I'm super skeptical of the entire premise, as it seems built on a house of cards... butLeisher wrote: Did Kevin Warren cancel the B1G season to get Biden elected?
Well, c'mon, he's the president, he has to own the pandemic response. And the presence of the pandemic canceled the season, ergo...But the reality is Donald Trump had nothing to do with canceling the seasons in the Big Ten and the Pac 12.
It's not me, it's someone else.