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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:16 am
by TheCatt
If you haven't refi'd your mortgage lately, might want to take a look. The bond market is falling apart. The lender (SoFi) we used is already offering 2.5% for 15, 3.0% for 30 without points. At least, when I went through their pre-qualification that's what it said.

Rates may go lower still.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:42 am
by GORDON
Finished my refi last week.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:59 am
by Leisher

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:15 pm
by TheCatt
10 year rates just went below 0.50%; 30 yr below 1.00%; S&P futures down 4%; Oil down to almost $30 as Russia + Saudi Arabia spark an oil war and OPEC cannot negotiate a production cut.

US + Canadian shale going to get hit HARD if prices don't recover.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:28 pm
by GORDON
Gas prices here in NW Ohio dipped under $2 for the first time in.... 8 years? last week. Lasted 2 days, then jumped up 30¢.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:29 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: Lasted 2 days, then jumped up 30¢.
How odd given oil's decline YTD.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:29 pm
by GORDON
I always suspect collusion, but I have a suspicious mind.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:52 pm
by TheCatt
Gas prices have been overly stable for the past year, if that keeps up more than another month or two, super suspicious.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:53 am
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: 10 year rates just went below 0.50%; 30 yr below 1.00%; S&P futures down 4%; Oil down to almost $30 as Russia + Saudi Arabia spark an oil war and OPEC cannot negotiate a production cut.
Stocks ended up hitting the 7% circuit breaker (Stops trading for 15 minutes after a 7% decline). But, seem to be holding that level post-breaker.

Stocks are down 18% +/- since their all time high.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:17 pm
by TheCatt
Stock ended up a little further down. Already down 1% more after hours. I wonder where this all ends?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:51 pm
by GORDON
DEATH TO THE CAPITALISTS!

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:23 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: DEATH TO THE CAPITALISTS!
Well, there are no more Capitalists. Trump is floating a payroll tax cut AND making sure hourly workers get paid no matter what.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:10 pm
by Leisher
I was pondering a new tax idea. Could a tax cut for businesses be possible based upon how many people they employ. The key here being it would save the government all of most of the cost of that person being unemployed, while also being cost effective for businesses so it actually encourages hiring.

The point would be to encourage hiring instead of companies trying to run on skeleton crews. Make it so laying people off isn't necessarily a "go to" method of boosting quarterly/annual performance for stock gains.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:29 pm
by TheCatt
Payroll taxes are directly based on payroll. They’re a relatively easy way to do employment based tax cuts.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:39 pm
by TheCatt
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Watching the headlines try to keep up with the stock market changes over the past 2 weeks has been fun.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 am
by TheCatt
Stocks fell 7%, hit the circuit breakers. Good job, Trump.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 am
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: If you haven't refi'd your mortgage lately, might want to take a look. The bond market is falling apart. The lender (SoFi) we used is already offering 2.5% for 15, 3.0% for 30 without points. At least, when I went through their pre-qualification that's what it said.

Rates may go lower still.
Despite bonds still being depressed, mortgage rates have shot back up. One word is that there's simply too much demand for refinances, so theyve raised rates to slow things down.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:40 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Stocks fell 7%, hit the circuit breakers. Good job, Trump.
I mean, not really his fault, BUT the asshole did say previously stock market crashes are the fault of the sitting president and "no excuses", so...

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:25 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote:
TheCatt wrote: Stocks fell 7%, hit the circuit breakers. Good job, Trump.
I mean, not really his fault, BUT the asshole did say previously stock market crashes are the fault of the sitting president and "no excuses", so...
The markets were flat last nightvuntil dumbass spoke

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:45 pm
by Leisher
Last night was absolutely his fault. I was saying the overall market dropping lately has not been all on him.

I do think he's done far more harm than not with the coronavirus hype.