Long term rates will climb as inflation rises, particularly 10yr and 30yr bonds. Mortgage rates will go up accordingly, stock market may tread water (or fall) as bonds become more attractive. Deficits will also cause more bond issuance, which should also raise rates.
Odds of a 2020 or 2nd half 2019 recession going up as economy gets less stable + predictable. PIMCO says 5 year odds of recession is 70%. I lean towards 1st half of 2020, as the Fed historically has been poor at raising rates to combat inflation.
Another issue I'm hearing will be the corporate tax cut. Not that it isn't a good idea, but a lot of money from international corporations have been sitting in other countries because as soon as they bring it to the US it gets hit with the corporate tax. Now that the penalty for doing that is much lower, we could have upwards of $2 trillion dollars hitting the US economy over the next few months.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
thibodeaux wrote: So whaddaya do? Take some stock gains, put in gold? Buy bitcoin?
I have reduced the portion of my portfolio that is long term bonds, anticipating rising yields, which impact long duration bonds. Mostly letting the stock portion float for now. I'll probably go to more cash at some point, but timing recessions is really hard.
Items like TV inflation are always interesting to me. According to this chart, the price of TVs has fallen about 95%. So you can buy a TV for what... $50?
Well, no, you cannot. It's just that the TVs are better than they were 20 years ago, so the innovation in TV gets captured as a falling price. But no one's buying 27" CRT TVs, they're buying 55-70" HDTVs, which cost $1k to $2k.
No real point here, but inflation is hard to measure.
TheCatt wrote: Items like TV inflation are always interesting to me. According to this chart, the price of TVs has fallen about 95%. So you can buy a TV for what... $50?
Well, no, you cannot. It's just that the TVs are better than they were 20 years ago, so the innovation in TV gets captured as a falling price. But no one's buying 27" CRT TVs, they're buying 55-70" HDTVs, which cost $1k to $2k.
No real point here, but inflation is hard to measure.
Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?
Cakedaddy wrote: Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?
It's complicated. Many current products don't really have past analogues, so they try to make them on an annual basis to capture incremental improvements.
Cakedaddy wrote: Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?
It's complicated. Many current products don't really have past analogues, so they try to make them on an annual basis to capture incremental improvements.
Actually, all TVs have past analogs, as they were all analog TVs. I don't think you know what you are talking about.
I heard the other day that refrigerators have really inflated, since they do the same thing they always did, except now they have a different door configuration and cost 2k more.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
GORDON wrote: I heard the other day that refrigerators have really inflated, since they do the same thing they always did, except now they have a different door configuration and cost 2k more.
I really don't understand fridges. (Waits for cake to explain cooling to me )... We went shopping for a new fridge the other day, and 1) They're expensive as fuck and 2) they all have terrible service records.
You don't understand them, because you're not a girl. Refrigerators are part of the kitchen, and to girls, kitchens have become an accessory they like to show off. So putting in an expensive decorative fridge is fun.
