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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:11 am
by GORDON
Leisher wrote:
Hey, is it true to do business in China corporations used to have to reveal how they make their products?
*I've heard* that when American products are made in China, at the end of the shift when the "American" managers go home, the next shift starts and the same employees make the Chinese knockoff products on the same assembly line, with the same schematics, and the same technology.
Good times.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:21 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Yeah, no one else ever stood up to China, so finally.
I mean, I'm really trying to find the silver linings.
It would be kind of cool if Trump somehow got other nations to join him in standing up to China about intellectual property theft.
Too bad he's him.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:46 pm
by Vince
Leisher wrote:
I will say that the one positive about this whole thing is China being called out for allowing the pirate market to flourish there. Every piece of software that cheaters use in games comes from China. I mentioned the illegal streaming services running from there now. And the list goes on...
Absolutely agree. I don't think many are giving that much attention. And I think part of that is Trump's fault. That should be what he pounds on with both fists non-stop. But minus that, the press isn't going to cheer-lead that.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:52 am
by Leisher
Saw the story earlier on my phone so I don't have the link, but apparently China offered to reduce the trade surplus by buying a shitload of microchips. Trump also removed South Korea from the tariff list.
Based on this news, the markets were expected to open on a positive as people are less fearful of a trade war now.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:11 am
by TheCatt
South Korea has partially renegotiated their trade pact with us, and we are "in talks" with China. Positive outcomes with China would be great.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:35 am
by Leisher
Honestly, if he proved he knew what he was doing financially, I wouldn't give a fuck if he banged Stormy Daniels on his desk, in the ass, while giving the State of the Union address. He could tweet all he fucking wanted.
The problem is he hasn't proved that yet...
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:02 pm
by GORDON
I have the outsider impression that there wasn't any concession the previous administration wouldn't give to make themselves look good to their frightened, milquetoast base. And my further impression is that Trump operates from the position that he runs the most powerful Nation in the world.
That's just the vibe I perceive.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:01 pm
by TheCatt
I lowered my equity exposure today, Dow around 24,200. Honestly, I think a bunch of sideways is on tap. But it's a crazy hard market to read, with too many variables (Trump, interest rates, Trump again, ...).
It's not like 2007 which was a pretty easy read. Or 2000/2001.
But, if you like valuation measures... this one aint pretty. That being said, 2008/2009 is still in there, so really the number is better (lower) than it shows here.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:17 pm
by TheCatt
US 10 year bond hit 3.0% today for the first time since 2014. Continuing rise in yields will depress stock returns.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat May 05, 2018 11:05 am
by TheCatt
Unemployment hits 3.9%.. WSJ did a big article about the last time this happened. Hint: not good news
That being said, they were comparing a single event, and the dotcom bust was pretty different from now. I would still expect stocks to be sideways, absent a trade war or strangley exceptional stock news. And interest rates to continue to climb
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 08, 2018 3:39 pm
by Leisher
Record job openings.
Apparently signaling a lack of skilled workers.
Remember how recently more people were in school to become lawyers than there were actual lawyers? Maybe that was even worse a stat than we believed?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 08, 2018 7:18 pm
by TheCatt
The number of workers quitting their jobs rose in March to the highest since 2001. Workers believe they can find better similar or higher-paying jobs elsewhere.
I'm a statistic...
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:18 am
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:22 am
by TheCatt
Yeah, those tax cuts were dumb. But oh well.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 3:43 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: US 10 year bond hit 3.0% today for the first time since 2014. Continuing rise in yields will depress stock returns.
A month later, and only up to 3.08%, and that's because it went up 0.09%.
Sudden moves will make markets react (down 225 pts today), but even Goldman was only calling for 3.6% in 2019, which isn't that dramatically higher for those of you who remember life before the economic collapse.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu May 24, 2018 10:52 am
by TheCatt
10 year's back down to 2.96% today, from a high of 3.10%, iirc within the past week, on news of the NK summit being canceled + possible auto tariffs.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:36 am
by thibodeaux
was just looking at some charts and started wondering: what are some good *leading* indicators for the economy? A quick google for the wikipedia article:
Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury vs. Federal Funds target) — The interest rate spread is often referred to as the yield curve and implies the expected direction of short-, medium- and long-term interest rates. Changes in the yield curve have been the most accurate predictors of downturns in the economic cycle. This is particularly true when the curve becomes inverted, that is, when the longer-term returns are expected to be less than the short rates.
So...keep us posted on that mkay
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:17 am
by TheCatt
thibodeaux wrote: was just looking at some charts and started wondering: what are some good *leading* indicators for the economy? A quick google for the wikipedia article:
Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury vs. Federal Funds target) — The interest rate spread is often referred to as the yield curve and implies the expected direction of short-, medium- and long-term interest rates. Changes in the yield curve have been the most accurate predictors of downturns in the economic cycle. This is particularly true when the curve becomes inverted, that is, when the longer-term returns are expected to be less than the short rates.
So...keep us posted on that mkay
This indicator is what guided me in selling most of my equities prior to the last recession. BUT we have a giant caveat this time around. We've never had the Fed Reserve holding over $4 Trillion of bonds (as a result of the 08-09 stimulus). Those holdings are still depressing long term yields rates, which might otherwise be 4-5% instead of 3%.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 11:53 am
by TheCatt
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 12:40 pm
by TheCatt