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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:56 pm
by TheCatt
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:28 pm
by TheCatt
Shitty day in the market today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/a-rare- ... l-too.html
Down + S&P down 3%, NASDAQ down 4%.AMZN down 10% in 5 days.
Stocks have been on such a run that a correction isn't a big surprise. S&P still up 4% YTD.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:32 am
by Vince
It was kind of funny listening to business channels yesterday. Lots of words to say "we're really not sure, a combination of a few things. Probably."
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:38 am
by TheCatt
Vince wrote: It was kind of funny listening to business channels yesterday. Lots of words to say "we're really not sure, a combination of a few things. Probably."
There's a few things: China, Italy, interest rates rising. But mostly I think it's a case of taking profits, and not wanting to be the one holding the bag. There's been a tremendous run up in tech this year.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:01 pm
by TheCatt
Down another 545 points (2%) for the Dow.
Tech actually only down 1%
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:43 am
by TheCatt
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:18 am
by Leisher
I forget, is Trump using the tariffs to force balanced trade and/or is he demanding China actually crack down on pirates there?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:39 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: I forget, is Trump using the tariffs to force balanced trade and/or is he demanding China actually crack down on pirates there?
Former, as far I know. I've heard a little about the latter, but like 90/10
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:10 am
by TheCatt
Economy did well in Q3
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, the government said Friday.
That's still strong, though lower than the 4.2% clip the economy grew during the second quarter. It was the sixth consecutive quarter with growth above 2%.
...
Real disposable personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.5%, the same as last quarter. That's slightly above the 2.35% average growth since the end of the last recession in late 2009. But it's considerably less than the 4.0% increase in consumer spending.
...
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure that the Federal Reserve watches carefully when deciding whether to raise interest rates, rose only 1.6% in the third quarter. That's down from 2.0% from last quarter, and considerably short of the Fed's inflation target.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:17 am
by GORDON
A good economy?
This is not normal.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:27 pm
by TheCatt
Stock market today:
Let's go up 300 points!
Wait, but what if we went down 300 points instead?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:35 am
by TheCatt
Economy added 250k jobs, wages up 3.1% 10 yr bond up 0.05 to 3.19%
This will keep pressure on the Fed to keep rates rising, as wage increases could become inflationary. Expect auto loans, mortgages, etc to keep going up. I'd hold to modest returns for the stock market through 2018-2019, especially as yields increase, and the impact of the tax cuts slows.
Recession 2020? I'd say more likely than not.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:26 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Recession 2020? I'd say more likely than not.
That'd be perfect timing for another tax cut.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:38 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: TheCatt wrote: Recession 2020? I'd say more likely than not.
That'd be perfect timing for another tax cut.
Depression 2025!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:37 pm
by Leisher
Then a new wave of government spending!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:02 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Then a new wave of government spending!
Breakdown in civil order 2029!
Sadly, the same year I plan to retire.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:39 pm
by GORDON
I was assured during the Obama administration that debt spending was the only way to fix an economy, and not cutting spending, because that's 100% racist. Therefor, Leisher's suggestion is sound.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:47 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Breakdown in civil order 2029!
I was, literally, listing the government's go to plays for each scenario. (Or did I get them backwards?)
Speaking of all this, I was stunned that my Economics book actually gave the Bush (W) administration props for its handling of the fallout from the Dot Com bust, and lightly blasted the Obama administration for not making the right moves in the Great Recession. To that point, it had typically not weighed in politically one way or another.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:58 am
by TheCatt
I've never been a fan of crediting Presidents with economic growth, so this works.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:26 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: Unemployment hits 3.9%.. WSJ did a big article about the last time this happened. Hint: not good news
That being said, they were comparing a single event, and the dotcom bust was pretty different from now. I would still expect stocks to be sideways, absent a trade war or strangley exceptional stock news. And interest rates to continue to climb
7 months later... the stock market is down 2% YTD. That's a whole lot of sideways