Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:01 am

Inflation spiked 0.5%, 0.3% for core. Above expectations. Fed has been planning 3 rate increases this year, news like this may make them do 4.

Long term rates will climb as inflation rises, particularly 10yr and 30yr bonds. Mortgage rates will go up accordingly, stock market may tread water (or fall) as bonds become more attractive. Deficits will also cause more bond issuance, which should also raise rates.

Odds of a 2020 or 2nd half 2019 recession going up as economy gets less stable + predictable. PIMCO says 5 year odds of recession is 70%. I lean towards 1st half of 2020, as the Fed historically has been poor at raising rates to combat inflation.

Guggenheim Investments (whoever they are) agrees with me

Enjoy the time until the recession :)
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby thibodeaux » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:27 am

So whaddaya do? Take some stock gains, put in gold? Buy bitcoin?

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Postby Vince » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:17 am

Another issue I'm hearing will be the corporate tax cut. Not that it isn't a good idea, but a lot of money from international corporations have been sitting in other countries because as soon as they bring it to the US it gets hit with the corporate tax. Now that the penalty for doing that is much lower, we could have upwards of $2 trillion dollars hitting the US economy over the next few months.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:33 am

thibodeaux wrote:Source of the post So whaddaya do? Take some stock gains, put in gold? Buy bitcoin?

I have reduced the portion of my portfolio that is long term bonds, anticipating rising yields, which impact long duration bonds. Mostly letting the stock portion float for now. I'll probably go to more cash at some point, but timing recessions is really hard.

Meanwhile, job market is getting pretty tight
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby GORDON » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:13 am

We keep deporting all that slave labor.
Fuuuuuuck YOU.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:08 pm

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:12 pm

Items like TV inflation are always interesting to me. According to this chart, the price of TVs has fallen about 95%. So you can buy a TV for what... $50?

Well, no, you cannot. It's just that the TVs are better than they were 20 years ago, so the innovation in TV gets captured as a falling price. But no one's buying 27" CRT TVs, they're buying 55-70" HDTVs, which cost $1k to $2k.

No real point here, but inflation is hard to measure.
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Postby TheCatt » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:58 pm

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Postby GORDON » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:19 pm

It's weird that the two things that get subsidized the hardest are the things that have gone up the most in cost.

I wish there were some sort of thing that could explain that.
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Postby TheCatt » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:21 pm

GORDON wrote:Source of the post It's weird that the two things that get subsidized the hardest are the things that have gone up the most in cost.

I wish there were some sort of thing that could explain that.

Theyre also highly reliant upon human labor, and difficult to outsource/replace geographically.
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Postby GORDON » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:22 pm

Labor costs have gone up 200%?
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Postby GORDON » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:56 pm

Way more.than 200%. Labor is just a small part of the cost.

It's the subsidies that they turned into a money spigot.
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Postby Vince » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:40 am

GORDON wrote:Source of the post
It's the subsidies that they turned into a money spigot.

Yes.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Cakedaddy » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:31 pm

TheCatt wrote:Source of the post Items like TV inflation are always interesting to me. According to this chart, the price of TVs has fallen about 95%. So you can buy a TV for what... $50?

Well, no, you cannot. It's just that the TVs are better than they were 20 years ago, so the innovation in TV gets captured as a falling price. But no one's buying 27" CRT TVs, they're buying 55-70" HDTVs, which cost $1k to $2k.

No real point here, but inflation is hard to measure.


Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:21 pm

Cakedaddy wrote:Source of the post Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?

It's complicated. Many current products don't really have past analogues, so they try to make them on an annual basis to capture incremental improvements.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Cakedaddy » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:42 pm

TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
Cakedaddy wrote:Source of the post Is that it? Or is it that owning a comparably sized 70 inch TV in 1997 would have cost $100,000?

It's complicated. Many current products don't really have past analogues, so they try to make them on an annual basis to capture incremental improvements.


Actually, all TVs have past analogs, as they were all analog TVs. I don't think you know what you are talking about.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:34 pm

Cakedaddy wrote:Source of the post I don't think you know what you are talking about.

I hate you.
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Postby GORDON » Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:47 pm

I heard the other day that refrigerators have really inflated, since they do the same thing they always did, except now they have a different door configuration and cost 2k more.
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Postby TheCatt » Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:51 pm

GORDON wrote:Source of the post I heard the other day that refrigerators have really inflated, since they do the same thing they always did, except now they have a different door configuration and cost 2k more.

I really don't understand fridges. (Waits for cake to explain cooling to me :) )... We went shopping for a new fridge the other day, and 1) They're expensive as fuck and 2) they all have terrible service records.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Cakedaddy » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:55 pm

You don't understand them, because you're not a girl. Refrigerators are part of the kitchen, and to girls, kitchens have become an accessory they like to show off. So putting in an expensive decorative fridge is fun.


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