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Only 197k jobs added last month, but private employers hired 317k, which implies 120k public sector/government jobs were lost. This seems highly unlikely, and is probably an artifact of the statistical analysis used. I bet these numbers go up when revised in 1 month. August #s were also revised upward from prior #s.

!RmindMe 11/15/2021

Jobless benefits ended, hiring did not pick up. I will refer to my post above that the data may be skewed/off.

They're all dead.

My wife thinks people simply don't want to return to shit jobs for shit money. I think she has a point. Nobody wants to earn a modest living doing modest work anymore and corporations have made it worse by treating those people terribly.

As Judge Smails said, "The world needs ditch diggers too."

If you can't properly support a family working somewhere, why work?

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:41 pm Jobless benefits ended, hiring did not pick up. I will refer to my post above that the data may be skewed/off.

My local Chinese restaurant that I loved, which I feared would go under because of the covid response, went under because of the covid response. So they aren't hiring.

But at least we don't have covid any more so totally werf.

If the Democrats wanted to do something useful: Why not raise the minimum wage? I know they're wedded to $15, which I think is too high, but why not $12? Why not go ahead and index it to CPI in 25 cent increments, too?

I genuinely thought they were going to raise the minimum wage with Biden in the Oval Office, them controlling the House, and having a majority in the Senate?

Three Nobel prizes handed out in economics.

David Card was recognized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences for groundbreaking work on minimum wages, immigration and education. He showed, using a natural experiment — where researchers study situations as they unfold in the real world — that increasing the minimum wage does not necessarily lead to fewer jobs.

But it could. He's still waiting for word on his Nobel prize in meteorology where he proved it does not necessarily mean rain when a weather forecaster says it could rain.

Republicans: We want smaller government.

Democrats: Ok, pay people more so they're off the government tit.

Republicans: No.

I think the hold up for Dems is they have to get 60 votes in the Senate.

I thought the Democrats were saying tax people for the miles they drive to pay for more stuff

GORDON wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:27 am I thought the Democrats were saying tax people for the miles they drive to pay for more stuff

There's a bill where they've asked treasury to "investigate" the possibility, iirc. Nothing more.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:33 am

GORDON wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:27 am I thought the Democrats were saying tax people for the miles they drive to pay for more stuff

There's a bill where they've asked treasury to "investigate" the possibility, iirc. Nothing more.

This.

Although, if you think that tax won't appear in our lifetime then you're not paying attention.

Bonus: We'll also see that charge via pizza delivery, Uber Eats, Amazon, etc.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:57 pm Although, if you think that tax won't appear in our lifetime then you're not paying attention.

It's inevitable as more electric cars appears, and only fair.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:57 pm Bonus: We'll also see that charge via pizza delivery, Uber Eats, Amazon, etc.

hah!

I wonder what they'll do to tax the drones...

Alternative Delivery Tax.

Back to the core of what this thread was supposed to be about: Me making bad economic predictions.

Inflation is here, it's hurting the world, especially on energy, and won't ease up quickly like people hope. Stagflation is not a huge concern, but is a bigger concern than people thing. Growth over the next year will be hurt, and we may see $4 gas at some point.

!RmindMe 9/1/2022

What are you predictions on supply chain problems? Of course headlines are usually pessimistic, but it really seems like things are not looking great there. Seems like scarcity of goods is a REAL great problem to have at the same time as an inflated money supply.

thibodeaux wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:11 am What are you predictions on supply chain problems? Of course headlines are usually pessimistic, but it really seems like things are not looking great there. Seems like scarcity of goods is a REAL great problem to have at the same time as an inflated money supply.

Yes, part of the reason I think inflation + stagflation concerns are more real than the Fed or most talking heads say. I could very well be wrong, duh. But, we have a pretty big energy crisis in most of the world right now. We're not talking about complete blackouts, but if winter comes in cold, Europe and Asia will have natural gas crises, production of some things will stop due to prices, further compounding supply shortages. Meanwhile, India + China both are facing coal shortages.

Now, maybe Australia + China patch over their issues and coal shipments pick up, winter comes in real warm, and wind power picks up dramatically in Europe.

Or, maybe there are more Asian covid shutdowns, or maybe they go with the "live with it route."

There are a lot of unknowns. But energy prices in particular mean: People shut down some things, and people want more money for things.

I keep hearing it'll be a really cold winter.

Kraft Heinz boss says "Get used to higher food prices".

Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:40 am I keep hearing it'll be a really cold winter.

It's impossible to forecast out that far, so it's all just speculation, basically. But our company was positioned for a cold winter, and it's working out well so far. (knocks on wood)

TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:02 am There are a lot of unknowns. But energy prices in particular mean: People shut down some things, and people want more money for things.

IMF basically says the same thing.

One thing that would be quite damaging is if central banks have to tighten and the money spigots stop, but inflation doesn't. Or, they pull back too far (which happens quite often), and interest rates go up, and the spending stops. Obviously over-simplifying there, but I would expect more market turmoil over the next 6 months than people are used to.

Truth.