Welcome to Thunderdome

thibodeaux wrote: "This time is different?" Hm. Ok.

This time may be different There are reasons to believe that the curve is distorted, due to events that have occurred that have not occurred in the prior 60 years. Also, there's always the issue of once people become super aware of a signal, they react to the signal, instead of reality. Whether that becomes a sell-off buying opportunity, or self-fulfilling prophecy, we won't know until later.

Cakedaddy wrote:

Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...

But does every inverted curve lead to a recession? If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign? Did the curve recover, then recession? Two years of invert? Has there ever been an invert, recover, then invert again before a recession hit?

So far, in the past 60 years, in the United States alone, yes. Inversion -> recession.

If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign?

Yes, as it typically is showing that long term growth prospects have dwindled.

How much does the definition of “recession” play into the lag? Isn’t the definition something like N consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth? Too lazy to google.

thibodeaux wrote: How much does the definition of “recession” play into the lag? Isn’t the definition something like N consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth? Too lazy to google.

2 consecutive quarters of contraction. Unsure if they are measuring from the first date of inversion to the start of the recession, but that would make the most sense.

So there's at least 6 months lag regardless.

thibodeaux wrote: So there's at least 6 months lag regardless.

Only until the recession is declared... not until it starts. That being said, historically the recession has followed 6 to 17 months later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_cur ... ield_curve

So like... 10 minutes of our economic output?

GORDON wrote: So like... 10 minutes of our economic output?

0.5% of our exports... and 367 minutes of our economic output.

I knew you'd do the math.

I wonder what Trump will put tariffs on next.

We'll win.

I had a concern strike me yesterday thinking about all these tariffs. When we have a Dem President and his proposed bill to raise income taxes fails to pass, will he simply unilaterally raise tariffs to make up the difference? If congress doesn't do something to reclaim their authority on this, we may be looking at one of those Harry Reed "live to regret" decisions sooner rather than later.

TheCatt wrote: more tariffs on China

Stock futures down about 1% on the news

Don't have much use for Flake, but glad to see this.

Vince wrote:

Don't have much use for Flake, but glad to see this.

Not holding my breath....

Trying to find the silver lining in these tariffs, which are always a stupid idea, I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us. Not just IP either. Most corporate espionage is done by China, which is troubling when you look at their Made in China 2025 plan.

Leisher wrote: Trying to find the silver lining in these tariffs, which are always a stupid idea, I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us. Not just IP either. Most corporate espionage is done by China, which is troubling when you look at their Made in China 2025 plan.

Yes, but are tariffs the answer for that?