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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:57 am
by TheCatt
The 10 year is at 2.0%. We're flirting with war with Iran. China + Trump having talks at the G20. Europe pumping out more stimulus cuz their economy's fucked. Fed might cut rates in July.

Tech stocks dropped on the news of investigations a couple of weeks ago, but everything's back to where it was.

Honestly, nothing makes sense, and everything is chaos. :)

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:28 pm
by TheCatt
Median income by state.

I'll be honest. Seeing NC as 13th worse is a little bit surprising to me. Ohio 4 spots better.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:58 am
by Vince
Appalachians kill KY and WV. I wasn't surprised. I know they could never get the deer population to take hold in the mountains when they released deer until the food stamp program was implemented.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:01 am
by TheCatt
Stocks drop on good economic news.

There's been a slate of soft economic news, so this was a bit unexpected. Markets had been hoping for a fed rate cut. Much less likely now.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:10 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Median income by state.

I'll be honest. Seeing NC as 13th worse is a little bit surprising to me. Ohio 4 spots better.
A cost of living graph alongside that one would tell more of the story.

That being said, DC being on the top is all you need to know about our country. DC is a notoriously shitty city. A former "murder capital of the U.S." title holder. Crime and poverty are major issues. Do any major corporations have their HQs there? I doubt it. So why is it at the top? Lobbyists and politicians.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:21 am
by GORDON
I picture lobbyists using "donations" to make it rain all over middle aged, white politicians, while the politicians gyrate on the pole.

Tax money then gets rained upon whatever the lobbyist was buying.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:11 pm
by Leisher
GORDON wrote: I picture lobbyists using "donations" to make it rain all over middle aged, white politicians, while the politicians gyrate on the pole.

Tax money then gets rained upon whatever the lobbyist was buying.
Minority politicians take bribes too. Who was that black Democrat from...LA?...who got caught a few years back? Let's also not forget Obama who is on his "time to pay me for the favors I did you" tour. A time honored tradition for all veteran politicians.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:33 pm
by GORDON
My fave thing about Obama was how he wouldn't meet lobbyists in the White House, because he promised to not do that. So his people met them at the coffee shop across the street.

I think of Obama as the "Boyfriend President.". I know several liberals who spoke of him as such.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:22 am
by Leisher
worst offenders of CEO-Median worker pay gap.

A couple of those companies being on the list are interesting considering how bad they're doing.

Bob Iger is definitely one who gets a pass in my book. Is any company kicking ass like Disney currently is?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:59 pm
by Vince
Leisher wrote:Bob Iger is definitely one who gets a pass in my book. Is any company kicking ass like Disney currently is?
I think when you get to that size of a company, they all get a pass. There are really only a handful of people capable of successfully running a business of that size. You are competing for someone in that small pool.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:55 am
by TheCatt
2.1% GDP grown in Q2 2019. Better than expected, not great. Big question is Fed decision next week.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:04 pm
by TheCatt
25-pt rate cut form Trump the Fed.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:46 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: 25-pt rate cut form Trump the Fed.
Fed says there's no firm plans to do more cuts. Stonks get sad and drop 1%

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:56 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote:
TheCatt wrote: 25-pt rate cut form Trump the Fed.
Fed says there's no firm plans to do more cuts. Stonks get sad and drop 1%
Fed says, "No, wait! There might be more!" Stonks recover.

In other news, it kinda suck in the US to not be rich
Image
How households earning $61,000 can acquire cars costing half their gross income is a story of the financialization of the economy. Some 85% of new cars in the first quarter of this year were financed, including leases, according to Experian. That is up from 76% in the first quarter of 2009.

And 32% of new-car loans were for six to seven years. A decade ago, only 12% were that long. The shorter-term loans of the past gave many owners several years of driving without car payments.

Now, a third of new car buyers roll debt from their old loans into a new one. That’s up from roughly 25% in the years before the financial crisis. The average amount rolled into the new loan is just over $5,000, according to Edmunds, an auto-industry research firm.
JFC. Admittedly, we bought a car last on year, and got a loan, but I had reasons.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:26 pm
by TheCatt
Trump makes stocks sad
WASHINGTON—President Trump said the U.S. would impose an additional tariff of 10% on $300 billion in Chinese goods and products beginning on Sept. 1, after trade talks this week failed to yield any significant results.

In a series of tweets, Mr. Trump, who received a briefing from his trade team Thursday, said that negotiators still planned to resume their discussions, as scheduled, next month, and expressed his interest in reaching “a comprehensive Trade Deal” with China.

However, he said that China’s promise to increase its purchase of U.S. agricultural products, as well as its promise to stop the sale of fentanyl to the U.S. have fallen short.

“China agreed to...buy agricultural products from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so,” he said. “Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States—this never happened, and many Americans continue to die.”

Unlike previous rounds of tariffs, which have focused largely on industrial goods, the $300 billion tranche is set to include a host of consumer products, from electronics and cellphones to apparel.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:43 pm
by Leisher
Was coming to post that. Fucking tariffs...

If he was smart he'd wrap this trade war in the climate change argument and force the left and other nations to his side.

"China is still making CFCs despite signing treaties saying they wouldn't. They are literally helping to kill the planet and humanity. It has to stop and they need to be punished. The world constantly looks the other way as China allows other countries' IP to be stolen and pirated. This isn't something we can look away from. So I'm drawing the line in the sand on trade. We'll allow the trade deficit to continue if China immediately clamps down on pirating, stops gold farmers, stops manufacturing CFCs, and stops demanding trade secrets from companies trying to do business within their borders. I invite other nations of the world concerned about their own IPs and the damage climate change is doing to join me." :D

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:47 pm
by Vince
I'd read somewhere (maybe even here somewhere) that businesses are putting the brakes on a lot of plans because Trump's been so erratic with trade policies. It's the same thing that happened under Obama with environmental policies. A lot of businesses that had to deal with the EPA just went into a holding pattern.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:33 pm
by TheCatt
Vince wrote: I'd read somewhere (maybe even here somewhere) that businesses are putting the brakes on a lot of plans because Trump's been so erratic with trade policies. It's the same thing that happened under Obama with environmental policies. A lot of businesses that had to deal with the EPA just went into a holding pattern.
Yeah, it really fucks your plans when your supply chain has so many question marks.

On the other hand, the slowdown caused by tariffs, assuming they go into effect, may give him that 2nd or 3rd rate cut he wants :\

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:35 am
by TheCatt
Jobs report inline with expectations. Interestingly, the labor force grew 370k people, despite only 164k more jobs. Labor force participation of 63% still well below pre-recession values, but up from recently lows. In theory there's still more slack in the employment force if more people come off the sidelines. In reality, who knows

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:31 pm
by Leisher