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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Sep 10, 2025 1:32 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Wed Sep 10, 2025 1:17 pm Catt, what's going on with this? Why is Oracle spiking?
"AI"

What garbage. They're projecting massive 3-year growth based on "AI"

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Sep 10, 2025 2:57 pm
by TheCatt

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2025 9:57 am
by Leisher
This is at the same time that several AI companies are reporting low earnings, and the entire industry is questioning where they're going to make money in AI?

That all factually happening. In fact, AI capital is getting harder to find because investors aren't seeing returns.

So, why would this spike their stock?

Can we start a DTMan stock and when they ask us what we do, we just say "AI"?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2025 10:34 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Thu Sep 11, 2025 9:57 am Can we start a DTMan stock and when they ask us what we do, we just say "AI"?
Lol. Hmmmmm.

Inflation up again, like 2.9% rate for CPI.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 7:57 am
by TheCatt
"Housing is expensive! We need more housing! BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:07 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 7:57 am "Housing is expensive! We need more housing! BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"
Now compare crime rates and property values with those different housing types and you'll understand why "BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"

It has been proven over and over and over and over that moving low income folks into nice areas just brings down those nice areas. It's almost like throwing money at a problem doesn't solve it...

Diving a touch deeper, and not meaning to derail, but this is interesting. Even if the low income family is a good family with good intentions, their social circle can bring the negative results. For example, there is a wealthy township near here. The wealthiest in the state actually. It's naturally low crime. There is an apartment complex smack dab in the central portion of where most of their residents live. Historically, no issues from this complex per the local PD. A few low income families were brought in, and now the entire complex is a problem. Cops are there several times a week. What happened was the families moved in and initially, nothing changed. But later their social circles started visiting and that's where the wheels fell off. The complex lost renters, dropped rates, that social circle started moving in, and bye bye property values and safe neighborhood.

But that's a conversation for a different thread.

Credit scores continue to drop.

Americans continue to spend though.

I wonder how much of a role social media plays into our spending? Has "Keeping up with the Joneses" become more pressing as the world has shrunk?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:25 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:07 am I wonder how much of a role social media plays into our spending? Has "Keeping up with the Joneses" become more pressing as the world has shrunk?
I dunno, it's just 100% not an issue for me, yet a strangely large # of people seem susceptible to it.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:36 pm
by Leisher
Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:07 am But later their social circles started visiting and that's where the wheels fell off. The complex lost renters, dropped rates, that social circle started moving in, and bye bye property values and safe neighborhood.
BTW, great lessons there for the open border morons. Immigration without assimilation equals disaster.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:25 pm I dunno, it's just 100% not an issue for me, yet a strangely large # of people seem susceptible to it.
Yeah, we're out of that age range. There's a reason the 18-40 demo is the most coveted demo. They're not wise enough yet to say no to wastes of money.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:36 pm BTW, great lessons there for the open border morons. Immigration without assimilation equals disaster.
Yeah, I support immigration, but I want controlled immigration. Control the rate of immigration, and the quality of the people (which we do, but we could do better).
Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:36 pm Yeah, we're out of that age range. There's a reason the 18-40 demo is the most coveted demo. They're not wise enough yet to say no to wastes of money.
Even then I was largely immune. I think it's cuz I rarely give shits what people think I should be doing.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 2:02 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm Yeah, I support immigration, but I want controlled immigration. Control the rate of immigration, and the quality of the people
100% agreement.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm (which we do, but we could do better).
Well, we did until four years ago...
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm I think it's cuz I rarely give shits what people think I should be doing.
Usher: "Sir, you need to have pants on in this theater."
Catt: "Hey, fuck you. I don't need your approval!"

I've never been a clothes or car guy, I don't really care about such things, but I have been tech driven my whole life. I suppose in that regard I've "Kept up with the Joneses", but is that me following my interests or society pushing me?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 3:23 pm
by TheCatt
I've wanted a 911 my whole life since I was like 9. So yeah, a seed was planted, but because it's an awesome fucking car.

Clothes on the other hand, people used to wonder if I was nearly homeless due to the shabby condition of my clothes

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 5:03 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 3:23 pm Clothes on the other hand, people used to wonder if I was nearly homeless due to the shabby condition of my clothes
We have that in common too. I went a long time without tying my shoes. Most of my socks have holes, and my mom and my wife complain I never throw them out. I have an OSU shirt that I've owned so long that it has holes all over, but it's the most comfortable shirt I own. Used to have a Cross Colors shirt from high school that was my fav, but my wife and mom both hated that one too. It disappeared and I'm still not over it.

After typing that I realized that while my mom and wife have COMPLETELY different tastes in fashion, they both agree on what I should wear.

Women...

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2025 5:19 pm
by TheCatt
Hah, basically the same for my wife and mom, though my wife is more casual than mom.

I do finally get rid of socks with holes as of about 1 year ago. Finally feel rich enough for that luxury 😁

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2025 3:24 pm
by Leisher
Two interesting posts

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2025 5:42 pm
by TheCatt
$100M sure would be nice.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2025 3:17 pm
by TheCatt
Image

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2025 4:58 pm
by Cakedaddy
Is that outgoing, incoming, or both? With the high tariffs, I could see both incoming and outgoing being affected. We are buying less imports, but buying more local, so things cancel out, right? Why do we care about this number?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2025 5:28 pm
by TheCatt
Cakedaddy wrote: Tue Sep 23, 2025 4:58 pm Is that outgoing, incoming, or both? With the high tariffs, I could see both incoming and outgoing being affected. We are buying less imports, but buying more local, so things cancel out, right? Why do we care about this number?
Good question...
Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from 36 million invoices and $36 billion in spend processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
Guess because we like economic activity? I mean, I do.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2025 6:20 pm
by Cakedaddy
But again, that's just shipments. Doesn't mean things aren't being bought, it just means they aren't coming/going over seas. I need . . . Paper. So instead of buying paper from China, I'm buying it from Scranton. And instead of Scranton sending paper to France, they are selling it to me. I mean, how much of the affect that number has on things gets canceled out by people buying local instead of from a different country?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2025 6:43 pm
by TheCatt
Cakedaddy wrote: Tue Sep 23, 2025 6:20 pm But again, that's just shipments. Doesn't mean things aren't being bought, it just means they aren't coming/going over seas. I need . . . Paper. So instead of buying paper from China, I'm buying it from Scranton. And instead of Scranton sending paper to France, they are selling it to me. I mean, how much of the affect that number has on things gets canceled out by people buying local instead of from a different country?
No one's got an organic paper mill in their fucking backyard. It's still DOMESTIC freight.