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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:47 am
by TheCatt
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:14 am
by GORDON
So, they don't do as well without a trade deal that favors their side? Huh. That just defies logic.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:18 pm
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:00 pm
by thibodeaux
"Don't let the market become any more illiquid than it already is," Trump tweeted. "Stop with the 50 B's. Feel the market, don't just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!"
Seems like, to me, it would be a good plan (for Trump's re-election chances anyway) to let the market correct NOW, then roar back by early 2020.
I guess maybe he hopes if the Fed stays off the brakes the bubble won't pop until after the next election.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:27 pm
by TheCatt
thibodeaux wrote: to let the market correct NOW, then roar back by early 2020.
Recessions of the past few decades have averaged about 1 year. Getting back to full employment has taken a few years. So if the recession were 2019, we'd be 'good' again around 2022-2023
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:05 pm
by thibodeaux
Yeah but do things have to be back to “good” or is “getting better” sufficient?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:36 pm
by TheCatt
thibodeaux wrote: Yeah but do things have to be back to “good” or is “getting better” sufficient?
Good. I don't remember anyone being very excited about the economy in 2002, 2003, 2010, or 2011
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:37 pm
by TheCatt
You have $100, I take $5. Are you OK when you have $96?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:14 pm
by thibodeaux
No but we are talking about the average voter who doesn’t remember anything

Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:39 pm
by GORDON
I know the economy will.never be as amazing as it was under the God Obama.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:49 pm
by thibodeaux
GORDON wrote: I know the economy will.never be as amazing as it was under the God Obama.
PBUH
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:48 pm
by TheCatt
Fed raises rates, as expected. But they left in language about next year's raises, but added a bit of language about being more dovish on raises.
Market down on the news, had been expecting the Fed to be a bit more cautious in their outlook.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:38 pm
by TheCatt
Markets down again.
I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.
AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:47 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: Markets down again.
I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.
AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
Down even further with AMZN touching 1315; AAPL down to 148; DOW down 18.5% (22,000).
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:20 am
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:26 am
by TheCatt
Depending on the initial state of your tax levels, that is.
Our empirical findings show that the tax multiplier is essentially zero under relatively low/moderate initial tax rate levels and more negative as the initial tax rate and the size of the change in the tax rate increase.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:25 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: TheCatt wrote: Markets down again.
I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.
AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
Down even further with AMZN touching 1315; AAPL down to 148; DOW down 18.5% (22,000).
And back to 1500 1 week later. That's some awesome volatility.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:25 am
by TheCatt
Tesla missed shipping goals for new cars; Netflix missed subscription targets, but more importantly
Chinese manufacturing fell into contraction
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:24 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Netflix missed subscription targets
I mean, how do you go up from "everyone"?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:59 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: TheCatt wrote: Netflix missed subscription targets
I mean, how do you go up from "everyone"?
On the other hand, they are doing something smart, and
ending their Apple tax for subscription revenue