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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2025 8:28 pm
by Leisher
Left wing environmentalists have to be pulling out their hair.

Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2025 3:55 pm
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2025 4:04 pm
by TheCatt
PE doesn't have a great history in many ways.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2025 1:31 pm
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2025 4:11 pm
by GORDON
Egg prices are the only thing that matters. What's the egg prices.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2025 1:37 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:02 pm
Not really about the economy, but...
I find it a little weird I can order foreign money from my bank to be sent to my house, but not American money.
Robinhood also said this week that with its new Robinhood Banking offering, Gold subscribers will get private banking services with tax advice and estate planning tools, perks like access to private jet travel, five-star hotels and tickets to Coachella, and 4% interest on savings accounts. Customers will also soon be able to get cash delivered to their doorstep, saving them a trip to the ATM, though few details were provided.
Someone's listening!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:21 pm
by TheCatt
CEOs: Recession is here or on the way, bad news for everyone incoming.
Negative feelings are widespread among CEOs, who told CNBC in a flash survey that a recession is coming, job losses are likely, and American brands that sell overseas are already beginning to feel boycott-like pressure.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:40 pm
by Leisher
Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:43 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:40 pm
Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
Well, that's never happened before, but hey, maybe this time since we have the North Korean press secretary.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:45 pm
by TheCatt
I've always wondered this.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:48 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:43 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:40 pm
Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
Well, that's never happened before, but hey, maybe this time since we have the North Korean press secretary.
True, except for when it did.
We should really hire the old press secretary who was sooooo much better and more honest.

Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 2:11 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:48 pm
True, except for when it did.
This is 100% false. I know what you're talking about, and you are 100% wrong.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 2:37 pm
by Leisher
I figured you've been doing it for so long that you deserved some payback.

Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 4:11 pm
by Leisher
Back to reality...
This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that? What do you invest in? How do you spread the rumor so you know it will affect trading? How do you cover your tracks, or is this simply not illegal because ultimately you just created a rumor and other idiots acted on it as if it were fact?
I don't know enough about the market to know if this is all possible? Although, it worked for Randolph and Mortimer.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 5:14 pm
by GORDON
I was exposed to some theory about how if the something goes down by something percent, then some other USA debt could be immediately refinanced at a lower percentage rate and it would save like $4.5 trillion in whatever.
Clearly I had a firm grasp on what they were talking about but totally sounds legit.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 5:17 pm
by GORDON
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 4:11 pm
Back to reality...
This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that? What do you invest in? How do you spread the rumor so you know it will affect trading? How do you cover your tracks, or is this simply not illegal because ultimately you just created a rumor and other idiots acted on it as if it were fact?
I don't know enough about the market to know if this is all possible? Although, it worked for Randolph and Mortimer.
If it's partially strong -arming peeps to renegotiate their economic policies in regards to the USA, then of course the white house would never admit to it.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 5:22 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Apr 07, 2025 4:11 pm
This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that?
Misinformation spreads fast. You can enter/exit trades quickly, so if they did this for their own gain, the trades will be there. All trade data is recorded/sent to the SEC. If anyone still works there after DOGE.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:33 pm
by TheCatt
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariffs- ... ew-2056463
Seems like it was a legit misunderstanding of the situation.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 3:29 pm
by TheCatt
The weird thing is that the market keeps pricing in "These tariffs won't really go into effect... These tariffs won't really last..."
But they keep going into effect, lasting, and getting bigger.
The market would be down about 30-50% if they took the tariffs seriously.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2025 3:32 pm
by TheCatt
An iPhone has about $500 of hardware in it, and retails for $1000. With 104% tariffs, it becomes $1,020 of input. Assuming Apple keeps the margin ($500) the same, it's $1,520 retail.
The current estimates for the (currently impossible to build) American iPhone? $3,500.
Forbes says my estimate is way too low
But I think Forbes is using a static analysis (What could be done TODAY), whereas the $3,500 assumes a functioning supply chain in America (which would take years to develop)