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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2025 10:44 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2025 9:39 am
The best companies to work for in the U.S.
That #1 company is our investor at my day job.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2025 9:56 pm
by TheCatt
Americans fear faster inflation is on the horizon.
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey, released Friday, showed that Americans’ inflation expectations for the year ahead surged this month to 4.3%, up a full percentage point from January to the highest level since November 2023.
“This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, in a release.
The survey’s sentiment index also declined in February for the second consecutive month, down 5% from January to its lowest reading since July 2024.
“The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups,” Hsu said.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:47 am
by GORDON
This guy says what I've been saying for a long time. The government's "strong economy" numbers are wrong.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00203464
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:49 am
by Leisher
Wholesale prices remained high last month.
Inflation rising now isn't ALL on Trump...yet.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:24 am
by TheCatt
I love this article. (paraphrasing below)
"U3 is a bad unemployment measure! Government workers are well-intentioned, but doing bad things!" Gee, i wonder why it's called the U3. Like, are there OTHER unemployment measures?
U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
So yeah, the data the author wants is 1) already there and 2) provided by the government.
He then says the same thing about the CPI. Spoiler alert, there's at least 5 of these as well.
To be fair, the prevailing indicators aren’t without merit.
OK, So what's your issue?
The indicators my colleagues and I have constructed could serve as the basis for or inspiration for government-sponsored alternatives.
Dude, your indicator is (essentially) the U-6.
The headlines numbers are broad indicators, and always have been. Shocking! that nuance is needed to understand things. Duh.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Feb 22, 2025 8:26 am
by TheCatt
Thanks, Trump.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2025 1:29 pm
by TheCatt
One of the things I love about this country. We make new things happen.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2025 2:00 pm
by GORDON
Everybody willing to take a risk left Europe for N America a couple hundred years ago.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2025 9:22 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2025 8:26 am
Thanks, Trump.
Saw this being discussed on them interwebs this weekend.
A very interesting theory was floated out there suggesting that many potential Hooter's girls are now on OF, and that's hurt the chain overall.
I would say it's not nothing. Not only are many of the hottest women no longer working at Hooters, but their clientele are at home subscribed to OF and just Door Dashing food.
Hooters should try a full rebrand and get in bed with someone like Barstool. Barstool could promote the restaurants, hold events, tournaments, etc. Make Hooters event dining for bros.
Also, Hooters' spicy garlic is the best in the business. Fight me.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2025 11:20 am
by TheCatt
Never had hooters" wings.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2025 2:48 pm
by Leisher
They're fine.
Like ANY place, if the oil has gone bad, they're going to suck. Honestly, that's my biggest criticism of most wing places. It's really not hard to see burn marks on your fried foods. When that happens, change out your oil.
But that's a different topic.
Hooters has larger wings, pretty decent strips, good lunch specials, and arguably the best sauces in the business. I make it there once every couple of months.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2025 4:16 pm
by GORDON
I can always tell when the oil needs to replaced, based on the state of my frenched fries.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 9:03 am
by TheCatt
Walgreens in protracted legal battle with maker of smart doors/screens used in refrigerated items
I hate those fucking screens, and think Walgreens should burn in hell for ever using them. Can't believe they signed such a dumb contract.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 9:18 am
by Leisher
We didn't get those at the local Walgreens here.
Also, the door company turning off the feed for a week seems like something that won't help them in court.
And yes, who the fuck thought these screens were a good idea.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:01 pm
by TheCatt
Trumpcession already?
Based on tariffs starting next week, firings, etc:
Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:37 pm
by GORDON
Again, it doesn't work that way. Democrat administrations blame the previous R administrations for years bad news, after that terms. No one is going to accept "2 months later," now. The precedent has been set to deeply.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 28, 2025 2:54 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:37 pm
Again, it doesn't work that way. Democrat administrations blame the previous R administrations for years bad news, after that terms. No one is going to accept "2 months later," now. The precedent has been set to deeply.
Typically there's lag in economic reactions to policies. Not with tariffs.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:11 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:01 pm
Trumpcession already?
Based on tariffs starting next week, firings, etc:
Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/stock-f ... dates.html
Stocks super unhappy today with tariffs starting. What does Trump hate more than the American economy?
-1.5 percent estimate has changed to -2.8% for Q1 GDP.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2025 11:47 am
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2025 2:19 pm
by TheCatt
I like his two-sided approach, encouraging production + also killing demand.