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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2024 1:15 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:06 pm
Who knew it could crawl back in.
All of your sexual partners?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:17 pm
by TheCatt
Title of the sub applies to everyone who said that trickle-down economics would work, and meant it.
Tax cuts for the wealthy have long drawn support from conservative lawmakers and economists who argue that such measures will "trickle down" and eventually boost jobs and incomes for everyone else. But a new study from the London School of Economics says 50 years of such tax cuts have only helped one group — the rich.
The new paper, by David Hope of the London School of Economics and Julian Limberg of King's College London, examines 18 developed countries — from Australia to the United States — over a 50-year period from 1965 to 2015. The study compared countries that passed tax cuts in a specific year, such as the U.S. in 1982 when President Ronald Reagan slashed taxes on the wealthy, with those that didn't, and then examined their economic outcomes.
Per capita gross domestic product and unemployment rates were nearly identical after five years in countries that slashed taxes on the rich and in those that didn't, the study found.
But the analysis discovered one major change: The incomes of the rich grew much faster in countries where tax rates were lowered. Instead of trickling down to the middle class, tax cuts for the rich may not accomplish much more than help the rich keep more of their riches and exacerbate income inequality, the research indicates.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:46 pm
by Leisher
Trickle down relies too much on human beings wanting to share the wealth. There's no real incentive for them to do so. We can fix that.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:21 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:46 pmWe can fix that.
OK... how?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 3:53 pm
by GORDON
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 2:21 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:46 pmWe can fix that.
OK... how?
I see your recurring theme across threads.
We already have rules of incorporation, that entities need to agree to in order to continue to exist as a corporation. So it isn't like it's a completely alien concept that the government "meddles." Wouldn't be difficult at all to change the rules of incorporation. "Guess what, bitches. Your excess profits just got capped and we're closing loopholes to keep you from just building new buildings." (That's what insurance companies did when Obamacare was passed, and they had a cap on profits. IIRC.)
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:30 pm
by Leisher
Responding to Catt's "ok...how?"
Well, we could tax them to the poor house. Because nothing screams "FREEDOM", like busting your ass or creating something new that nobody has ever done before only for the government to come in and take all of your rewards. Nothing quite pushes innovation like removing all incentive to innovate.
Or, and I claim to be no economist, we could take away all of their tax breaks. All of them. Instead, offer tax breaks based upon investments in new/existing businesses and technologies, communities, and schools. I have no idea what kind of ratio it would take to encourage such investment, but I'm sure it could be figured out.
Also, compromise. Get rid of the death tax across the board and replace it with the stagnant tax. Instead of stealing taxing your money when you die, your money gets stolen taxed at the same ridiculous rates if it sits too long at some arbitrary value. So, for example, let's say I'm worth $5M/yr and have $30M in stocks and $20M in the bank. That means in any year I am counted as having $55M. I have to invest some % of that into non-stock market investments (we could get bogged down in this list, so let's just leave it as "things that directly create jobs") or it gets taxed at some insane percentage.
(I also have realized my mistake in including stocks as they are unrealized, so I was only worth $25M in the example.)
I don't know. Anything that encourages the money to keep moving, BUT here. In U.S. communities and businesses.
Force the trickle down, but do so in a way where the person seeing their money trickle down doesn't have to put as much in the following year if their investments aren't working.
They still have wealth. They still can invest in whatever they want, whether it be philanthropical or wealth generating.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:42 pm
by GORDON
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:30 pm
Or, and I claim to be no economist, we could take away all of their tax breaks. All of them. Instead, offer tax breaks based upon investments in new/existing businesses and technologies, communities, and schools. I have no idea what kind of ratio it would take to encourage such investment, but I'm sure it could be figured out.
But we're accepting "trickle down" doesn't work. Removing the tax burden means more profit this quarter, prices won't go down, and shareholders will be just fine not giving anyone raises and taking increased dividends. I submit that if you remove corporate taxes (which face it, consumers pay, anyway), then there needs to be a hard cap on profits, with no "well we're just going to quintuple research and capital expenditure now I guess. Nope, no profits to be had here, Uncle Sam."
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:56 pm
by Leisher
That's why I said the trickle down has to be forced. Don't let money sit stagnant. Keep reading!

Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 5:10 pm
by GORDON
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:56 pm
That's why I said the trickle down has to be forced. Don't let money sit stagnant. Keep reading!
Your face is keep reading.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:54 am
by Leisher
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:59 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:54 am
Wholesale inflation up a bit in Oct.
Thanks, Trump.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:54 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:59 amThanks, Trump.
That's the new "Thanks Obama" we'll be hearing for the next 10 years.
Trump has officially replaced Bush in the "Bush, Haliburton, Global Warming" or whatever the phrase was we used for the typical scapegoats.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:57 am
by GORDON
I'm looking forward to going back to "presidents can affect the cost of gas" like it was back with Cheney.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:06 pm
by TheCatt
Ah yes, "The economy where I live is much better than 2 years ago, but the national economy is a pile of dogshit." - Voters in the swing states.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:19 pm
by GORDON
I never heard anyone saying the thing you said.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:39 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:19 pm
I never heard anyone saying the thing you said.
Literally thousands of people right there in that survey. Guess you should run a polling company?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:54 pm
by GORDON
And your statement applied it to swing states? Because I think I was in one, and the general sentiment is not that the economy got "much better." So, I never heard anyone say the thing you said. Maybe they should have polled different people.
Except if anyone had polled the correct people, the election wouldn't have been a blowout and they wouldn't be saying things like "they're all stupid and need rich liberals to save them." But........ that conclusion would have required empathy, compassion, understanding, and the ability to perceive that maybe other people can see things from a different perspective, and not be evil. Alas, we don't have that, we have what we have. Red state people are stupid. Good luck running on that in 2028.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:55 am
by Leisher
Macy's has an accounting problem.
"It brings into question their third party auditor" - You think?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:18 am
by TheCatt
Auditing has always been a joke. If you want to get away with small fraud, you can. This was a 4% discrepancy in their delivery charges. Which, while nominally large ($150 million), doesn't really ring alarm bells.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Dec 02, 2024 7:37 pm
by Leisher
Dude has a point.