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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 10:43 am
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 9:25 am
But it isn't a nice, acceptable 3% COLA that social security peeps will be told is their raise this year.
Inflation since January 2021 has been about 19% cumulative.
Social Security COLAs by year:
2021 COLA 5.9%
2022 COLA 8.7%
2023 COLA 3.2%
For a cumulative change of (wait for it...) 19%. It's almost like it's indexed to inflation. Actually, that was higher than inflation, since that's just 3 years, and I was doing the 19% for 3 years + 8 months. Inflation was 17.5% through 2023.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:27 pm
by Leisher
That was a good post about PEs Catt. I agree with most everything you said, except...
TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 5:38 pm
Maybe you've heard of Dunkin' Donuts? Man, that places sucks.
I genuinely think it does, but I accept your point about its success.
Timbits > Munchkins
+
For Tea, which is what I drink: Starbucks > Tim Horton's > Dunkin
TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 5:38 pm
The problem with distressed companies that PE often gets headlines for investing in (Toys R Us, etc), is that they are shitty companies that are going to die anyway. So yeah, there's probably more bankruptcies via PE because of the types of firms that PE invests in (selection bias).
This is a fair point, and I have no issue with them going after distressed companies.
It's when they go after otherwise healthy companies, like the push by Blackrock to buy Jersey Mike's. If a company is thriving, leave them the fuck alone.
And yes, I'm certain some PE firms are better than others.
I am considering your other pointed comment. I wonder how that would work out. If the ultimate goal is a stand alone company, I think I'd be very safe.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:29 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:27 pm
Timbits > Munchkins
Honestly, they both suck. You cannot get a good mass market donut any more.
Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:27 pm
I am considering your other pointed comment. I wonder how that would work out. If the ultimate goal is a stand alone company, I think I'd be very safe.
The good thing about PE is they often get shit done, because they know what they are doing. The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:37 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:29 pm
The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.
And the pound of flesh comes at everyone else's expense.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:09 pm
by Cakedaddy
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:29 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:27 pm
Timbits > Munchkins
Honestly, they both suck. You cannot get a good mass market donut any more.
You'll pick, and support, one of two shitty candidates. But you'll put your foot down when you have to pick a donut!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 7:39 pm
by GORDON
A donut is way more real to the great majority of people than anything said in a popularity contest where the winner gets millions.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:44 pm
by TheCatt
Cakedaddy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:09 pm
But you'll put your foot down when you have to pick a donut!
I have standards where it matters.
We have at least four local donut places that are great... and now that I think about it slightly more, maybe 8 or so. Actually, half of those are chains, but smaller than DD, regionalish.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:45 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:37 pm
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:29 pm
The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.
And the pound of flesh comes at everyone else's expense.
If there's enough pounds of flesh to go around, everyone wins. If not, PE makes sure they get theirs.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2024 11:29 pm
by Cakedaddy
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:44 pm
We have at least four local donut places that are great... and now that I think about it slightly more, maybe 8 or so. Actually, half of those are chains, but smaller than DD, regionalish.
So what you're saying, is you like having more donuts to pick from. And you'll pick the smaller, less known, but way better donut. To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 12:05 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:45 pm
If there's enough pounds of flesh to go around, everyone wins
True, but unfortunately, that's rare. Thus, like you, I'm not a fan of PEs. I get them, but I think they generally do more harm than good.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 7:26 am
by TheCatt
Cakedaddy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 11:29 pm
To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!
Yeah, except if you pick the lesser known way better donut in politics, no one gets that donut.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 11:50 am
by GORDON
Everyone needs to, en masse, get tired of eating the shit donut, and stop accepting the shit donut.
But just as we all know the only way to get the airlines to stop shrinking seats, and stop beating the hell out of passengers, is to STOP FLYING, for like just a week, and we aren't going to do it.
Secretly, too many people love the shit donut. They need the shit donut.
This is the kind of thing John Conner meant when he said, "We're not going to make it, are we."
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 3:13 pm
by Leisher
GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 11:50 am
Everyone needs to, en masse, get tired of eating the shit donut, and stop accepting the shit donut.
This times infinity.
Stop accepting the choice between the douchebag and the turd sandwich. That's the only way this ever changes.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 3:51 pm
by TheCatt
There's only 1 turd sandwich.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:20 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 3:51 pm
There's only 1 turd sandwich.
Correct. The other is a douchebag.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:37 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:20 pm
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 3:51 pm
There's only 1 turd sandwich.
Correct. The other is a douchebag.
Sexist!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:55 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:37 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:20 pm
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 3:51 pm
There's only 1 turd sandwich.
Correct. The other is a douchebag.
Sexist!
To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:01 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:55 pm
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:37 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:20 pm
Correct. The other is a douchebag.
Sexist!
To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.
Racist!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:35 pm
by Cakedaddy
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 7:26 am
Cakedaddy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 11:29 pm
To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!
Yeah, except if you pick the lesser known way better donut in politics, no one gets that donut.
That's true. At the end of the day, you still have to eat the shitty donut. But at least you tried to get a better donut.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2024 9:21 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 5:01 pm
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:55 pm
TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:37 pm
Sexist!
To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.
Racist!
The second I hit submit on that, I knew what you would come back with. BUT IT FITS!!! Trump IS the douchebag and Kamala is the useless turd sandwich.