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TheCatt wrote:

Leisher wrote: Trying to find the silver lining in these tariffs, which are always a stupid idea, I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us. Not just IP either. Most corporate espionage is done by China, which is troubling when you look at their Made in China 2025 plan.

Yes, but are tariffs the answer for that?

Leisher wrote: tariffs, which are always a stupid idea

I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us.

TheCatt wrote: Right, so....

I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us.

tariffs have nothing to do with that. Although, I guess at some point, we wouldn't manufacture stuff there, so it'd be harder to steal.

Leisher wrote:Trying to find the silver lining in these tariffs

Leisher wrote: He's 100% right that China needs to stop stealing IP and pretending they aren't doing anything wrong. He's also 100% wrong that tariffs are the solution.

TheCatt wrote: But... no one ever seems to give a shit.

Second-quarter economic growth came in at an annual rate of 4.1%, the government said Friday. That was the best showing since the third quarter of 2014.

Economists are generally predicting slower growth in the second half of the year, as the effects of the tax cut wear off and rising interest rates depress consumer spending.

Already announced tariffs are forecast to be only a slight drag on economic growth, unless more are imposed. And it seems that corporate executives are treading carefully, as surveys of business confidence and hiring expectations begin to flag.

The US economy grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter of the year, a figure Trump touted as "amazing" and sustainable -- even as economists caution economic growth for the second half of the year will likely be slower.
"These numbers are very, very sustainable -- this isn't a one-time shot," Trump said on Friday, speaking from the South Lawn of the White House.

TheCatt wrote:

thibodeaux wrote: So there's at least 6 months lag regardless.

Only until the recession is declared... not until it starts. That being said, historically the recession has followed 6 to 17 months later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_cur ... ield_curve

The conventional wisdom surrounding an inverted yield curve stems from two different paths coming together. Investors see longer-term bond yields climbing during strong growth and shorter-term ones rising when monetary policy tightens. When the gap narrow, questions are raised about whether the expansion has run its course.

Several analysts say the recent flattening of the yield curve has mostly been driven by monetary policy and continued growth—and not by fears of an imminent slowdown in expansion.

“The bond market isn’t flashing yellow or red yet,” said Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen. “The prevailing story here is still that the U.S. is growing pretty nicely.”

Leisher wrote: I'm wondering if there's another huge housing market crash on the horizon. All the baby boomers are going to be dying off or selling to relocate. Meanwhile, millennials can't get jobs or don't want to be home owners.

Leisher wrote: I'm wondering if there's another huge housing market crash on the horizon. All the baby boomers are going to be dying off or selling to relocate. Meanwhile, millennials can't get jobs or don't want to be home owners.