Welcome to Thunderdome

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 8:52 am**

TheCatt wrote:So I came up with one last night where the person needed 3,4,5,6 of a given suit to win, and anything else would mean they didn't win. Their odds showed as 0.0%, but they could win with the straight flush only. All other possibilities were removed from their hand (straights, full houses, four of a kind, etc)

Are you sure you had that correctly?
I was able to knock the odds down to 1.4%, but I know I still have something screwed up because the other 7/2 I have has the same odds.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:09 am**

I'm pretty sure. I'll post it later. I think I have to re-create it first. I think the problem in yours is that if a 3,4,5,6 came up, all the 2-7's would be equal, no? You would need to force the 3,4,5,6 to be a single suit by having 7-8's of each suit out there (aside from clubs), or something.

Also, do you not need a block on the 7 going up?

Edited By TheCatt on 1184940629

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:37 am**

A/3/4/5 of hearts would give one person a straight flush.
3/4/5/6 of hearts would give the other a straight flush.
Both were given a 0% chance of winning.

I wonder what the actual odds are? This one isn't as accurate as the Cardplayer.com one, though it allows for more players.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:21 am**

I bet Malcolm could tell us, he's all about the combinations/permutations. The question is what is the possible set of other (5th) cards that would still allow that person to win.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:36 am**

TheCatt wrote:I bet Malcolm could tell us, he's all about the combinations/permutations. The question is what is the possible set of other (5th) cards that would still allow that person to win.

Uh, I must've missed something in all the poker discussion as that sentence only sort of makes sense to me.

You trying to figure out if you can get the some odds calculator to display 0% for someone when in reality there is some combination of cards on the flop, turn, &/or river that would allow them to beat everyone else?

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:53 am**

Yeah, the problem is that they need 4 specific cards from a deck of 42, and then there is one more card, that can be, for simplicity, any of the remaining cards.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:54 am**

If there were only four cards to come up, it'd be easy, 1/42 * 1/41 * 1/40 * 1/39... that 5th card is what makes me not know.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:47 pm**

Alright, before I can start making mathematical assumptions, I wanna make sure I've got the formal definition of the problem correct. Chances are I won't be able to get around to crunching numbers till tonight. Annoying-ass project at work will probably take me all day to get done.

Anyhoo ...

Looks like five players playing Hold 'Em. I suppose I take the role of the TV viewer, knowing everyone's hands. Since the point is to turn low probability hands into winners, I assume someone has a godawful hand. Is it everyone that gets a shit hand or is it just one person or two or what?

Next, some odds calculator says someone has a 0% chance of winning when there is an actual series of three cards (flop, turn, river), correct? Any info on the claimed accuracy of this calculator? Cos w\o knowing where it draws the line & says, "This is just too fucking low to ever calculate, I'm putting zero," it's difficult to figure out where to start from, then.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:49 pm**

TheCatt wrote:If there were only four cards to come up, it'd be easy, 1/42 * 1/41 * 1/40 * 1/39... that 5th card is what makes me not know.

That's if there are 5 players. It's not necessarily five players.

What we need to figure out first is:
#1 What is the minimum number of players that need to be in a hand where (at least) one person will need to hit 4 specific cards out of the 5 community cards to make the only winning hand. (The more cards remaining in the deck, the greater the odds).

#2 Is there a way to make the "free" 5th card (the extra chance) a death card, so that if it's drawn it'd spoil the other 4 cards? That'd decrease the odds a little. But I'm not sure if it'd decrease the odds enough that an including an extra player will justify it.

#3 And finally, what are the odds of said player getting the four specific cards he needs and winning in that situation (assuming that situation is the second-least favorable... least favorable being 0%)

Edited By Paul on 1184957203

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:44 pm**

If that "5th card" is a 7h, he can't win. I assume that decreases the odds from my previous attempt.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:00 pm**

Paul wrote:
TheCatt wrote:If there were only four cards to come up, it'd be easy, 1/42 * 1/41 * 1/40 * 1/39... that 5th card is what makes me not know.
That's if there are 5 players. It's not necessarily five players.

What we need to figure out first is:
#1 What is the minimum number of players that need to be in a hand where (at least) one person will need to hit 4 specific cards out of the 5 community cards to make the only winning hand. (The more cards remaining in the deck, the greater the odds).

#2 Is there a way to make the "free" 5th card (the extra chance) a death card, so that if it's drawn it'd spoil the other 4 cards? That'd decrease the odds a little. But I'm not sure if it'd decrease the odds enough that an including an extra player will justify it.

#3 And finally, what are the odds of said player getting the four specific cards he needs and winning in that situation (assuming that situation is the second-least favorable... least favorable being 0%)

Relatively interesting queries. I shall endeavour to crack them.

Posted: **Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:13 pm**

I'm not even sure I'm approaching it correctly, but I'm at least in the same ballpark.

Here's what my math major friend told me:

If you have 10 players playing and you have to hit 4 specific cards to make a hand, the odds would be:

4/32*3/31*2/30*1/29 = 24/863040 or 1/35960. That's 0.00278%

But from what I can tell he didn't factor in the 5th card, so the odds would be better than that.

Edited By Paul on 1184960490

Posted: **Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:07 am**

TheCatt wrote:Anyone interested in a DTMan poker game? Maybe some small buy-in, or just for bragging rights. Whatever.

I'm all for playing.

Pokerstars has the smallest buy-in of any major poker site, $10. There's no credit card deposit fees either, so they eat the $.75 or whatever it is the credit card company charges them.

So I suggest that site.

The sit & go's are as low as $1 + $.20. I'm pretty sure I can get someone to set up the game for us, since I lack the FPP to do it.

If you sign up and say that you were brought there by SvgePenguin I think I get some sort of bounty for <s>luring noob</s> getting new people to the site.

Posted: **Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:24 pm**

I've been playing Freerolls on Pokerstars, and watching the pros play there. Daniel Negreanu started with $200 and worked that up to $6k!
Then he blew just about all of it in two Omaha games.

He was at $160 last night.

It's cool watching Moneymaker, Raymer, Greenstein, and Negreanu on the site

I think the person to watch is annette_15. I head some people talk about her.

She's 18, has *never* made a deposit, and has worked her freeroll winnings into quite a bankroll. She's won $300,000 in the last couple months alone!

I bet when she turns 21 there will a bidding war over sponsorship (Though if she lost some weight she'd make five times as much.)
Video of her playing. (Gets really interesting at the 19 minute mark. Watch until the 20 minute mark.)
http://www.veoh.com/videos/v249626bsknSbGA

Also, I think I'll be playing the PokerTime freeroll each night. It's at 8:30. I played last night and there were 7,273 entrants (the max it out at 12k, but didn't get near that). They have $1,000 in payouts, paying 260 places.
That's sooooo much better than any other site I've found.
1 = $134
2 = $110
3 = $73
4 = 45
5 = $36
6 = $33
7 = $30
8 = $25
9 = $14
10 = $10
11-20 = $4.50
21-30 = $3
31-40 = $2.50
41-160 = $2
161-260 = $1.50

Edited By Paul on 1185480528

Posted: **Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:51 pm**

Paul wrote:Video of her playing. (Gets really interesting at the 19 minute mark. Watch until the 20 minute mark.)
http://www.veoh.com/videos/v249626bsknSbGA

15:15 is interesting too.
Slainte goes all in pre-flop with 6/6.
Anette_15 calls with 9/9, a big favorite.
The flop is 6/7/8, giving Slainte the trips, making him the big favorite.
The turn is a 10, giving Anette_15 a straight and making her the big favorite.
The river is a 7, giving Slainte a full house and the win.

Posted: **Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:45 pm**

Pokerstars.net right?

I've DLed the software, but haven't signed up yet. I'll give you the referral, but I want half the bounty.

Posted: **Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:16 am**

Yeah, PokerStars.net.
I'll share. I'll PM you.

What I remember was a "$75 for you, $50 for your friend" or something like that bonus. I don't know the details though.

The affiliate program (slightly different) says that someone needs 100 FPP's to get the $75 bonus. I assume/hope/wish the refer-a-friend program close to that.

This seems like a much better deal than what I signed up for with the 100% cash back bonus, as I need 10 FPP's per dollar of return. Since I played the penny tables, rarely did a pot get 1 FPP. They give 1 FPP for every $.40 in rake at the tables, and 1 FPP for every $.20 in entry fee for tournaments.

So a minimum $10 deposit would require paying $20 in tournament fees to make the 100 FPP's.

The $75 bonus seems a *lot* more substantial. And if the friend also got $50, wowsers!

Posted: **Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:20 pm**

For those of you who play poker online.
Every weeknight at 8:30 Pokertime has a $1,000 freeroll. There are usually only 7,600 or so players.

So if you want a free shot at some money ($134 for first, $1.50 for 260th) it's worth checking out.

The software sucks, but the odds of winning are better than any freeroll I've seen.

Posted: **Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:54 pm**

I finished in 654th place with something like 7,300 players.
I got all in with the best of it, but putting all my chips on the line was a bit too aggressive. Eh.
People were making some pretty dumb all-in moves and I guess I wanted a piece of it.

Oh, I saw my first real royal flush just before I went out. I wasn't involved in the hand, as I had 2/9 off suit.

> Game # 1,532,055,396 starting.
> Dealing Hole Cards(2h 9c )
> pelle61 folded
> crocblanc11 folded
> chapmystic folded
> 33350 folded
> kateto1618 folded
> scouser4lyf folded
> SvgePenguin folded
> stevie18 raised for 600
> SmokyCash folded
> tostupid raised for 600
> stevie18 called for 300
> Dealing the Flop(Ad 7c Qd )
> tostupid went all-in for 6,363.02
> stevie18 called for 6,363.02
> Dealing the turn(6d )
> Dealing the river(10d )
> stevie18 wins 14,676.04 with a Royal Flush, Diamonds
> tostupid has left the tournament in 806th place

Edited By Paul on 1186057763

Posted: **Wed Aug 08, 2007 11:36 am**

I bitch about stuff nobody wants to hear again...

CRAP! I had a great run in a freeroll last night.
With $1,500 in chips I amassed $30k when the average chip stack for the tournament was only 2k.

Then someone hit a three-outer on the river to beat me for 10k. He was an idiot to make that play.

Ten minutes later I had 6/4 in the big blind and he had K/10. He min-raised on the button and I called, so it was just him and me in the pot.

The flop was 6/4/J flop. I raised half the pot, and he re-raised, so I went all in with my two pair.
He called and showed J/K. I figured that donkey had top pair or even a middle pair like 8/8.

That guy had had 2 J's and 3 K's as outs. 5 outs x 4 = about a 20% chance for him to beat me. Plus there's an additional 6% chance that whatever random card hit the turn would hit the river (3 outs x 2 = 6). So he was only about 26% to win when he called my all-in.

The turn was a 10, knocking him down to 20% or so. Then the river was another freaking 10. Doh! My 4's were counterfeited and he won with a bigger two pair.

Thanks to my earlier 10k contribution, and some other luck he had, that put me down to 1,400. I was sick a that point, and just pushed it all-in the when I saw an ace.

Now, I admit I was *lucky* to get about 30k to begin with. I'd make a big bet, someone would call, another would call, someone would go all,-in, I'd call with A/K suited and then everyone else would call. I was always the favorite once I went all-in, except for once when my A/Q beat someone's A/K.
I remember going all-in with A/A and having 5 callers! I don't remember what they had, but my chances of winning had to have been in the 40% range. I was yelling "Don't call! Don't call!" but they did anyway. I do remember seeing a lot of paint on the board, and paint in people's hands, but somehow they all missed getting two pair.