I've not read every post, so forgive me if this has been addressed.
I see on the TV poker tournaments that with every flop they have the percentage chance each guy has to win.
Is that possible to calculate to any degree of accuracy just depending on your own hand?
If so, then I'd play online tournaments with a laptop beside me to tell me my odds of winning after the flop. I'd just play every time I had a 60% chance of winning, and fold every other time. Statistics and variances aside... with a reliable percentage-generation-program, over time I should have a 60% win rate... which is enough to make a living.
Poker
You can figure percentages of making a certain hand, like if you're one card away from a flush you can calculate those odds (approximately at least, with the understanding that getting it specifically right depends on what cards everyone else had). But with no information on the other players hands you can't guess your odds to beat them.
Edited By TPRJones on 1184388769
Edited By TPRJones on 1184388769
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
The percentages you see on TV are based on knowing everyone's hole cards. So if someone plays 7/7 and someone else plays A/J, it's close to 50/50 as to who will win. But if we know that two people folded J/x and one person folded A/x, the 7/7 is a *massive* favorite, and the TV percentages will reflect that.GORDON wrote:Is that possible to calculate to any degree of accuracy just depending on your own hand?
After the flop you can pretty much *never* know the exact chances of winning.
If you're holding A/A and the flop is A/A/7 you know that you have a 100% chance of winning the hand, because there is *no* possibility of a straight flush beating you and even if someone else gets 4-of-a-kind you'll win.
Also, if the flop gives you a royal flush you're certain of winning.
That being said, poker is a game of estimates. If there are 9 people at the table and the first person to act makes a big bet, you can assume he has some big cards. First off, he has no money invested yet and can muck his cards for free. Second , he has 8 other people to act behind him, any of which might have a good hand and play back at him. Third, he'll have the disadvantage of acting first on each additional round of betting. So based on his position you can estimate that he has a couple big cards.
So at this point you can guess that he has a medium to high pair, or two high cards (like A/J or better). Some sort of top-10 hand.
Lets say that you called his raise with your pocket 9/9 and the flop was 6/7/8 (all different suits).
This is a very good flop for you. Any 5 or 10 will give you a straight, and any 9 will give you trips. Likewise, it is really unlikely that your opponent was helped by those cards. If he had A/K or A/Q or A/J or KQ-suited or anything like that, you're a huge favorite to win.
But again, he could still have J/J or Q/Q or K/K or A/A which makes him a favorite to win.
Let's say that you've seen this guy make the minimum bet several times before, and every time he did he ended up having a good hand was was trying to get more money in the pot. But if he had nothing he'd either check or raise a decent amount to steal the pot.
Well, now your action is based on his action.
He makes the minimum bet.
Ok, he has one of two types of hands. Either an over pair (any pair higher than 8's) or he made trips on the flop. Whatever it is, he probably has you beat. However, you can be pretty sure that if a 5, 9, or 10 shows up you'll have him beat.
Now it's time to estimate your odds.
After the flop the simple way is to count how many cards will help you, multiply that number by 4.
That is, there are four 5's, four 10's, and two 9's that can help you, giving you ten outs. 10 x 4 = 40, so you have about a 40% chance (the actual odds are 38%, assuming he has KK).
Now look at how many chips are in the pot. If there are 100 chips and it only costs you 20 to call you're getting some pretty good odds to call. Sure you know you'll lose 61% of the time, but paying 20 to win 100 only 40% of the time is a quite a deal.
To further complicate things you'll probably have to call another 20 or 40 chip bet to see the last card. That makes the deal not as sweet.
Lets say you make the call, and the next card (the turn) is a 2.
Opponent: ?/?
You: 9/9
Cards: 8/7/6/2
Pot: 140
Your opponent best 40 this time, trying to extract more money from you. Now it'll cost you 40 to see the last card. 40 to win 180. 4.5-to-1 odds. Very tempting, but do you have the correct odds to call?
Now to calculate your odds of getting a 5, 9, or 10 on the river. Take those 10 cards (four 5's, four 10's, and two 9's) and multiply them by two. 20... so you have about a 20% chance of getting your cards (actually 22%). So you have a 1/5 chance of getting your hand and 4.5/1 odds on your money. Those don't quite balance on their own, but...
Now come the implied odds. Implied odds take into consideration the extra money you can get your opponent to add to the pot later. One of two things will happen.
Option #1 happens around 77% of the time = You call the 35, and the last card misses you. You fold when he bets and lose the additional 35 you'd put in. Hand over.
Option #2 happens around 22% of the time = You call the 35 and the last card hits you. He makes another bet of around 50, making the pot 210. That is, he's forcing you to risk another 50 to win 210.
Just how sure are you at this point that your trip 9's or your straight are the best hand? If you're at least 25% sure you have the best hand you need to make a call. If you're confident that you have the best hand you want to raise to get him to give you more chips.
Again, you know he remember that he likes to make small bets to keep people in the pot when he has a big hand. He's been acting like he has something big the entire time.
If you have trips or a 9-high straight, what hands can beat you at this point?
There's no chance at a full house.
With unsuited cards on the flop it's unlikely he has a flush (and it's impossible unless the turn and river were suited).
He could beat you with a 9/10, but it's usually a dumb move to raise with that hand in first position at a full table.
If the flop have him trips, you're trips are better.
No. Most likely this guy has a big pair. Maybe he's been slow playing A/A or K/K and it bit him in the butt. Maybe he had 10/10 and was hoping for a 9.
Regardless at this point we've determined that we probably have him beat and want him to put more money in the pot so we can take it.
If we hit the straight he'll know that any 9 will have him beat. If we hit trip-9's he'll know that any 10 or 5 will have him beat (with a straight). So we can't bet too much or it'll scare him off. The bet needs to be small enough that he'll call it, even when he knows there's a good possibility that he's beat.
You re-raise him 50, he re-raises to 100, you call, and he shows you 9/10 for the 10-high straight! Doh!
He made a dumb opening bet, hit the nuts, and milked you all the way to the river. All your calculations were wrong because they were based on what he was *likely* to have, not what he actually had.
If you're holding A/A and the flop is A/A/7 you know that you have a 100% chance of winning the hand, because there is *no* possibility of a straight flush beating you and even if someone else gets 4-of-a-kind you'll win.
Also, if the flop gives you a royal flush you're certain of winning.
Now how can anyone trust your poker advice when you dispense crap like that?
“Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole.” - Dr Thomas Sowell
I should have added the "unless you're playing me. Then I have you beat, so fold" clause to those examples.
The problem with Gordon's 60% theory is that at a full table of 9 people, *no* pocket hand is 60% to win over the field of 8 other players. Even at a table of 5 players:
You'll get A/A, the best pre-flop hand possible, every 221 hands, and when you do you'll be an 80-something percent favorite to win against *one* player.
K/K is not as good, but still awesome.
Q/Q is great, but anybody with A/K has you beat half the time.
J/J is really vulnerable. If an Ace, King, or Queen hits on the flop, what do you do?
If you only bet with A/A, K/K, and Q/Q you'll be playing every 74 hands. At a table of 9 you'll have posted at least 8 big blinds and 8 small blinds, for an average of let's say 13 big blinds.
You have to average a 13 big blind win each of those hands to break even.
Nobody is stupid enough to call a raise of an additional 12 big blinds when raiser sits out 98.6% of the hands unless they have A/A, K/K, Q/Q, or J/J themselves. (The J/J should be thrown away, but a lot of people can't do that.) So basically you'll need to make something along the lines of the standard raise of 3 big blinds.
Again, more likely than not people will fold and you'll win the 1.5 big blinds in the pot... maybe 4 or 5 big blinds with limpers and/or a raiser.
It just doesn't work out.
The problem with Gordon's 60% theory is that at a full table of 9 people, *no* pocket hand is 60% to win over the field of 8 other players. Even at a table of 5 players:
You'll get A/A, the best pre-flop hand possible, every 221 hands, and when you do you'll be an 80-something percent favorite to win against *one* player.
K/K is not as good, but still awesome.
Q/Q is great, but anybody with A/K has you beat half the time.
J/J is really vulnerable. If an Ace, King, or Queen hits on the flop, what do you do?
If you only bet with A/A, K/K, and Q/Q you'll be playing every 74 hands. At a table of 9 you'll have posted at least 8 big blinds and 8 small blinds, for an average of let's say 13 big blinds.
You have to average a 13 big blind win each of those hands to break even.
Nobody is stupid enough to call a raise of an additional 12 big blinds when raiser sits out 98.6% of the hands unless they have A/A, K/K, Q/Q, or J/J themselves. (The J/J should be thrown away, but a lot of people can't do that.) So basically you'll need to make something along the lines of the standard raise of 3 big blinds.
Again, more likely than not people will fold and you'll win the 1.5 big blinds in the pot... maybe 4 or 5 big blinds with limpers and/or a raiser.
It just doesn't work out.
I should have added the "unless you're playing me. Then I have you beat, so fold" clause to those examples.
So you do realize that in the example you gave (and I quoted), you were wrong?
The problem with Gordon's 60% theory is that at a full table of 9 people, *no* pocket hand is 60% to win over the field of 8 other players.
True, but you should only be expecting 2-4 people per hand.
Look at your example in the photo, the guy with the pocket rockets should push the suited connectors and the 6-7off out of the hand with his pre-flop bet/raise. Assuming the KJ sticks around, American Airlines has a 81% chance of winning pre-flop. Even if one of the suited connectors stuck around, bullets would still be at 64%.
If the others do stick around, then pre-flop percentages mean nothing because you're playing with morons.
“Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole.” - Dr Thomas Sowell
Yeah, Leisher's right.Leisher wrote:Now how can anyone trust your poker advice when you dispense crap like that?If you're holding A/A and the flop is A/A/7 you know that you have a 100% chance of winning the hand, because there is *no* possibility of a straight flush beating you and even if someone else gets 4-of-a-kind you'll win.
Also, if the flop gives you a royal flush you're certain of winning.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Leisher wrote:So you do realize that in the example you gave (and I quoted), you were wrong?
Looks fine to me, am I missing something?
EDIT: Okay, nm, I see it. I'd still bet heavy on the four aces, though. :p
Edited By TPRJones on 1184614614
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
Sure, it may be .1% chance (it is, I looked it up), but it's a chance. Plus, it skyrockets to 2.27% if you hit the turn.
“Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole.” - Dr Thomas Sowell
Leisher wrote:Sure, it may be .1% chance (it is, I looked it up)
I can't round 99.9% to 100%? Crap. Don't look at my other numbers. I'm even less accurate with them.
I was wrong dead wrong by saying there is *no* chance though. It can happen if the universe hates you and wants you to kill yourself.
Edited By Paul on 1184618536
You know, I've often sat at a table and wondered about the worst beat a person could take, and that might be it.
On a related note, I hate people who read results of the WSOP out loud. I didn't want any spoilers, but I pretty much know who's at the final table and...something happens to someone that sucks.
On a related note, I hate people who read results of the WSOP out loud. I didn't want any spoilers, but I pretty much know who's at the final table and...something happens to someone that sucks.
“Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole.” - Dr Thomas Sowell
Leisher wrote:You know, I've often sat at a table and wondered about the worst beat a person could take, and that might be it.
You can really only limit it to needing two exact cards, which will be .10%. That gives the fewest possible outs on the turn and river.
Maybe pre-flop, with 10 people all going all-in, there could be worse odds? Eh... I'd guess not.
I tried to come up with the worst case scenario pre-flop, IE, needing four exact cards to win. The guy with K/6 spades is the loser.
Looks like the odds aren't nearly as the post-flop scenario we were talking about before.
Did I do this right?
He can't get a pair, two pair, or trips.
7/8/9/10 can get him a straight, but nor the win as 3 other people have 6's.
Someone else would get the nut flush.
No chance at quads.
His only chance at winning is the 3/4/5/7 hitting.
Edited By Paul on 1184878630
Looks like the odds aren't nearly as the post-flop scenario we were talking about before.
Did I do this right?
He can't get a pair, two pair, or trips.
7/8/9/10 can get him a straight, but nor the win as 3 other people have 6's.
Someone else would get the nut flush.
No chance at quads.
His only chance at winning is the 3/4/5/7 hitting.
Edited By Paul on 1184878630
I don't think they're supposed to show the odds of tying and thereby splitting the money. Just the odds of winning.TheCatt wrote:Hmmmm.. I think the problem with your hand is that the table has a too good of chance of winning, maybe?
I don't have time to check that now.
7/8/9/10/J of all diamonds or all clubs would allow everyone to split.
The total here is 99.8%, which is probably not a full 100% due to rounding, because that's not a big enough difference to cover the ties is it? I bet the odds shown include ties.
Could be wrong, though, I'm too lazy to run the numbers.
Could be wrong, though, I'm too lazy to run the numbers.
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
So I came up with one last night where the person needed 3,4,5,6 of a given suit to win, and anything else would mean they didnt win. Their odds showed as 0.0%, but they could win with the straight flush only. All other possibilities were removed from their hand (straights, full houses, four of a kind, etc)
It's not me, it's someone else.