Welcome to Thunderdome

Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:16 pm It's weird how there wasn't a problem in June and July.

Trade went up about 4% from June/July to Fall, but may also have been due to Delta, or many other supply chain issues. Dunno, things are complicated.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:26 pm Dunno, things are complicated.

You sure it wasn't just because of Biden's visit?

I realize these aren't 1900's steam ships, but how long does the trip take (loading, sailing, unloading, reloading, sailing, repeat)? Are they all just over there now getting loaded back up and in 5 months they'll be piled up waiting to get offloaded again?

Pacific freighters? Ten day crossing, give or take. Don't know about how long to load unload.

Weekly claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a new multi-decade low last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

At 184,000 claims, adjusted for seasonal swings, it was the lowest level of initial claims since September 1969, when the figure stood at 182,000.

Jobless claims hit a new 52-year low

Reconcile that with every fast food place being understaffed. Young people just not working, not collecting benefits?

Everybody died of covid and now there just aren't enough people to do these jobs?

GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:46 am Reconcile that with every fast food place being understaffed. Young people just not working, not collecting benefits?

Everybody died of covid and now there just aren't enough people to do these jobs?

Jobless claims are people being laid off. So very few people are being laid off.

We are still 3.9 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.

And still can't seem to fill them.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:38 pm

GORDON wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:29 pm I always wonder why striking workers aren't immediately fired and replaced.

Ostensibly they have some skills that cannot just be replaced immediately, or there's enough of them that firing all of them is disruptive.
Also, there's customer perception

Some are flooding Kellogg's automated application process to keep them from replacing those workers.

GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:23 am And still can't seem to fill them.

Yeah, but we're 6M better than we started 2021. So progress is happening. Maybe next year.

Oh /r/antiwork... you people are the worst.

I'm not a fan of Kellogg's just blanket firing those union members, but I'm also not a fan of striking. That being said, the people flooding the applications are just as shitty as the company they think they're ethically superior to.

Kellogg IT - "Yeah we can just blanket-ban any IP that sends us more than 2 applications. GIve me 5 minutes. Will fix about 90% of the problem."

GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:57 pm Kellogg IT - "Yeah we can just blanket-ban any IP that sends us more than 2 applications. GIve me 5 minutes. Will fix about 90% of the problem."

Fuck that. That would be so annoying to deal with IP by IP.

Fairly easily automated.

It can be, but not all spam firewalls are equal.

If I was Kellogg's I'd just hire some temps to come in and sort the stuff, then publicly thank the idiots who spammed the addy for giving Kelloggs a chance to hire more non-union workers.

Inflation news bad.

Wholesale prices rose 9.6% from a year ago, the highest level going back to November 2010.
The pace was even faster than the 9.2% estimate.
The core producer price index increased at a 6.9% pace, a bit slower than estimates but still the fastest ever in records dating to August 2014.

Yesterday my wife went to the grocery store and got filet cuz "it was on sale." The list price was $48/pound. Holy fuck.

Yeah, I buy steak in bulk, uncut, from Costco so I can save 3-5 dollars per pound. Choice strip loins were $7 last year, they're about 10, now. Prime strip loins were about $12 last year, they are $20, now.

So.... yeah. Good times.

Fed will cut asset purchases completely by March 2022, and will probably raise rates 3x next year.

Note: This has always been a turbulent time for markets, regardless of how expected the actions are.

I'm going to go bold and say that the stock market barely moves over the next year, or goes down.
DJIA 35,641.50
S&P 500 4,648.59
NASDAQ 15,251.42

- Cake says "I'm going to predict a pretty harsh slide next year, with some recovery but resulting in the markets being lower next year."

- Leisher says "pain"

!RmindMe 12/15/2022

I was going to post something similar in the bad economic predictions thread. I just received an email from my money guy who is predicting a good year next year with "pent-up demand, gradual improvement in supply chain challenges, solid labor force growth, and productivity gains".

I think, things will go down because I believe a LOT of people are living on credit and/or deferred house payments. There's no logical or financially sound way to explain the high number of open jobs right now. I don't believe that many people died from Covid. I think people are 'holding out for management positions' and spending money they don't have.

I'm going to predict a pretty harsh slide next year, with some recovery but resulting in the markets being lower next year.

- edit - OK, merged this prediction with the above.

My prediction?

Pain.