Post-Corona Economy

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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:11 pm CBS put context, whale didn't.
Whale doesn't need to as they aren't a news organization. But I do think they should have posted a link.
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Post by GORDON »

Poll: 81% of registered voters say economy not good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/2024-pr ... ntage.html
The most striking result from the survey was not the outcome in any particular state, however. It was the whopping 81% of registered voters overall who said the condition of the U.S. economy was either “Fair” or “Poor,” compared with just 19% who said it was “Good” or “Excellent.”

This split persisted despite the fact that Biden has traveled the country for the better part of a year, promoting his “Bidenomics” agenda and touting the economic gains made under his presidency.
"Trust me you guys, the numbers are terrific. Stop forming opinions based only on the cost of insurance, college, cars, homes, or groceries."
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Post by GORDON »

JP Morgan: 99% of Americans will be worse of by next year, than they were pre-pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/99-ameri ... ccounter=1
JPMorgan said the vast majority of Americans have burned through excess savings.

It's likely that all but the top 1% of consumers will be worse off financially in mid-2024 than they were pre-pandemic, the bank said.
Five years to normality.
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Post by TheCatt »

Based on a stupid, stupid statistic.

It's only Deposits + MMFs.

That's like measuring the economy by what people have in their wallet.
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Post by TheCatt »

Inflation... tamed?
The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose just 0.1% in November and was up 3.2% from a year ago, both close to expectations.
On a six-month basis, core PCE was up 1.9%, below the Fed’s 12-month target.
Including food and energy costs, so-called headline PCE actually fell 0.1% on the month and was up just 2.6% from a year ago.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 8:40 pm what people have in their wallet.
You mean like Capital One?
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Post by Leisher »

Catt, his numbers accurate?

Totally sustainable.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:36 am Catt, his numbers accurate?
The chart - Yes.

Interest is currently 15% of tax receipts. And is certainly a concern. You know, unless you're Congress.

"The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion." is a bit misleading since it would have gone up earlier if not for the temporary debt ceiling stuff, so the chart looks more vertical than it should.

One could also argue that absolute numbers are less meaningful than relative/adjusted numbers (percent of government spending, GDP, or adjusted for inflation).
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Post by Leisher »

Wasn't there a senator whose who spiel was "the sky is falling" over the debt? Can we get a voting majority of people like that? It's kind of important to get this under control.

Was it Rand Paul?
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:50 pm Wasn't there a senator whose who spiel was "the sky is falling" over the debt? Can we get a voting majority of people like that? It's kind of important to get this under control.

Was it Rand Paul?
Rand Paul. But he's a dick, so no one really cares what he says.
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Post by GORDON »

He was sold as a dick when his words went against party policy, yes.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm But he's a dick, so no one really cares what he says.
As opposed to every other Congressperson?
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:32 pm
TheCatt wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm But he's a dick, so no one really cares what he says.
As opposed to every other Congressperson?
More dick. Like you keep asking for when you're with Gordon.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:20 pm
Leisher wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:32 pm
TheCatt wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 1:16 pm But he's a dick, so no one really cares what he says.
As opposed to every other Congressperson?
More dick. Like you keep asking for when you're with Gordon.
There is no way Rand Paul is a bigger dick than most of Congress.

And yes, every time I'm with him and trying whatever new recipe he's made, he always gives me a ridiculously small amount. I ALWAYS have to say, "More, dick."
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Post by Cakedaddy »

What if we just declared bankruptcy. I mean, I feel like 34 trillion is worth taking the credit hit.

But really, what happens to the world if we just say "Fuck it. We aren't paying you."? to all the foreign investors. I could imagine a way we could still pay our American creditors. I remember a while back where our credit rating dropped a bit because of something. What affect does that have on things?
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Post by TheCatt »

Cakedaddy wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:00 pm But really, what happens to the world if we just say "Fuck it. We aren't paying you."? to all the foreign investors.
Well, how do we sell the next $1 trillion of debt? Also, I don't think we can pick + choose creditors, legally.
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Post by Leisher »

Dear China, in exchange for wiping half of our debt out we make the following offer to you:

We are giving Rs and Ds until 2050 to pay off the balance. Each party will be responsible for half. Any legislation passed to intentionally sabotage the other results in automatic forfeit.

If the Rs fail, you get TX.
If the Ds fail, you get CA.
If they both fail, you get TX, CA, and HA. (To sweeten the pot for China.)

You get the land, resources, buildings, and citizens who decide to stay.

Never happen, but it'd be fun to watch play out.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

I'd like to keep Hawaii. I was going to say 'give them Oregon' instead. But I think your point was to sweeten the pot.
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Post by Leisher »

Ha!
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:02 pm Dear China, in exchange for wiping half of our debt out we make the following offer to you:
China only own about 3% of our debt. 22% of US debt is owned by foreign countries.
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