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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:52 pm
by GORDON
If pay scales are going up across the board, I think it means we're guaranteed high inflation for a while.

But wages are overdue to go up, so good?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:01 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:52 pm If pay scales are going up across the board, I think it means we're guaranteed high inflation for a while.

But wages are overdue to go up, so good?
nominal wage increases don't matter, only real ones.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:09 pm
by GORDON
Here's a random thought I had the other day.

Last week our garbage pickup was a day late, the VM I got said "Sorry, unexpected equipment problem, we'll get your trash by the end of the week."

Truck broke, NBD. It happens.

But what if the problem was a circuit board, or something, and there was a 4-month lead time in getting a new one? The post-corona economy, and resulting supply chain problems, might easily end up looking like piles of trash in the streets in a short time frame.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:22 pm
by Leisher
Well, yes.

New chip manufacturing facilities are being constructed here now that the problem has been put into the spotlight, but I imagine those are still years away from going into full scale production.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:25 pm
by GORDON
They better be automated, because it appears we have a nationwide labor shortage.

I'm guessing we're within 12 months of a McD's run by a single person, also.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:36 pm
by Leisher
I don't know. Everywhere I look I see Dollar Generals being built or just completed and they all have "Now Hiring" signs. While this construction is going on several existing Dollar Generals have closed early or for days due to staffing issues. Doesn't seem to make DG corporate nervous about building more and more and more.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:18 pm
by GORDON
Subway overbuilt, too. Bad decisions get made.

A DG can probably operate if a single employee comes in. A fast food place cannot.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:52 pm
by GORDON
TheCatt wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:01 pm
GORDON wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:52 pm If pay scales are going up across the board, I think it means we're guaranteed high inflation for a while.

But wages are overdue to go up, so good?
nominal wage increases don't matter, only real ones.
Pretend like I don't have an MBA and explain for these other idiots what that means

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:16 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:52 pm
TheCatt wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:01 pm
GORDON wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:52 pm If pay scales are going up across the board, I think it means we're guaranteed high inflation for a while.

But wages are overdue to go up, so good?
nominal wage increases don't matter, only real ones.
Pretend like I don't have an MBA and explain for these other idiots what that means
If you get a 5% raise and inflation is also 5%, then it doesn't really matter. That is a real raise of 0%

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:32 am
by TheCatt
Trucker shortage. Although, there's apparently also some crazy inefficiencies in how trucking works.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:45 am
by GORDON
I also read somewhere this morning, I forget where, of a trucker saying infrastructure hasn't kept up with the 4-fold increase of trucks on the road, over the last 30 years. Like, no one wants to deliver in or out of San Fran because chances are there is nowhere to park overnight within 2 hours of the city, everything is full by 5pm.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:50 am
by GORDON
TheCatt wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:32 am Trucker shortage. Although, there's apparently also some crazy inefficiencies in how trucking works.
Drivers and fleet owners also say that government regulations can be intrusive or cut into driver earnings, pushing some to leave. Those include rules intended to reduce fatigue by electronically tracking drivers’ time behind the wheel, or to curb pollution near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach by phasing out the use of older trucks.
There it is. They have taken trucks off the road, at a time when there is a shortage of trucks.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:54 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:50 am There it is. They have taken trucks off the road, at a time when there is a shortage of trucks.
If you go from 200 truck to 150, but only have 100 drivers, it doesn't matter.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:20 pm
by Leisher
GORDON wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:45 am I also read somewhere this morning, I forget where, of a trucker saying infrastructure hasn't kept up with the 4-fold increase of trucks on the road, over the last 30 years. Like, no one wants to deliver in or out of San Fran because chances are there is nowhere to park overnight within 2 hours of the city, everything is full by 5pm.
It's not just the increase in number of trucks, but the size of trucks. I get stopped almost daily by trucks fighting to turn into lots or driveways where the road was clearly not designed with them in mind.

Not just with semis either. Go to your local grocery store and look at how some vehicles simply cannot fit into the standard parking spot anymore. Of course, those assholes seem to always try and park as close to the front doors as possible. If you drive a vehicle that size, plan to park farther away and/or only go for spaces where you can pull through and take two spots. You're still a dick, but now you're at least realistic and only inconveniencing one other person and not everyone driving around your ass end that's sticking out 5 feet.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:22 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:20 pm Go to your local grocery store and look at how some vehicles simply cannot fit into the standard parking spot anymore. Of course, those assholes seem to always try and park as close to the front doors as possible.
Fuck those assholes.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:42 am
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:01 am Only 197k jobs added last month, but private employers hired 317k, which implies 120k public sector/government jobs were lost. This seems highly unlikely, and is probably an artifact of the statistical analysis used. I bet these numbers go up when revised in 1 month. August #s were also revised upward from prior #s.

!RmindMe 11/15/2021
Nailed it. I look forward to Fox News' retraction of their articles from 1 month ago, same with WSJ, and big blaring headlines about the new numbers.

531,000 jobs added last month; September restated to a gain of 312,000 jobs. August was also revised up another 100,000

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:06 am
by GORDON
"Unemployment may be super low, but those jobs aren't good so he's still bad."

~Reporting on GW. Bush's job performance, 2005.

Just bringing back a classic

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:59 am
by Leisher

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:51 pm
by Leisher
Startup valued at $7B, about to IPO, just received $750M in cash, and has "about $1B on the balance sheet" lays off 900 workers via Zoom.

When the worker revolution begins, will anyone be surprised?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:27 pm
by GORDON
It always eases the blow if you tell the people you're firing that firing people makes you cry.