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Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:08 pm
by TheCatt
thibodeaux wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:11 am
Of course headlines are usually pessimistic,
It's interesting, I was thinking about this earlier. The news I read tends to be pretty straight-forward: Here are the figures, here are the past figures, here are people's opinions on the future, and trends that will impact it. Mostly, because for this kind of news I read the WSJ I sometimes read CNBC, which has an odd mix of "Things will be fine" (Kramer, Jamie Dimon, etc) and "
nightmare coming!" by regular journalists. But I don't put much stock in that reporting.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:05 am
by thibodeaux
The global supply chain nightmare is about to get worse
Yes, that's exactly what I'm talking about. We're at Threat Level Midnight, people!
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:50 am
by TheCatt
Biden to talk to unions about making ports move faster.
The president plans to meet with the leaders of the two busiest ports in the United States -- Los Angeles and Long Beach, both in California -- and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, "to discuss the challenges that ports across the country and actions each partner can take to address these delays," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday.
The port of Los Angeles, a senior Biden administration official said, will announce on Wednesday that it will move to 24/7 operations in order to help alleviate bottlenecks.
Maybe the unions are part of the problem.
These were pre-pandemic levels, but job demand sure seemed pretty high. Like they could easily hire more people or something.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:55 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:50 am
Maybe the unions are part of the problem.
Duh.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:42 am
by TheCatt
Well, fuck, now
It's a crisis
Luxury watch shortage drives growth of $20 billion secondhand market as start-ups rush to cash in
There's something I've never wanted or needed.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:46 am
by GORDON
It never occurred to me that ports wouldn't work 24/7.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:05 am
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:46 am
It never occurred to me that ports wouldn't work 24/7.
Right?
In their defense, they say there's not enough trucking capacity to be worth being open 24/7. But Long Beach, right next door, opened 24/7 before LA did.
The port’s gates are closed during the early-morning hours midweek and have limited hours on Saturdays. They are closed on Sundays.
Mr. Seroka said the port can extend operating hours only if trucking, warehousing and other industries also move toward 24-hour operations. ”You can’t hire labor, you can’t open terminal gates and tell everybody you are open for business and nobody shows up,” he said.
- WSJ 9/24/2021
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:05 pm
by GORDON
Is it all covid-response related?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:05 pm
Is it all covid-response related?
They've never been 24/7. So, in that sense, no.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:53 pm
by GORDON
So is it that the economy out-paced the labor pool?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:19 pm
by Leisher
Catt, 'splain any inaccuracies here? The general message of the government being irresponsible with money is one I completely agree with, however I think it's complete bullshit when either letter points at the other as the issue.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:47 pm
by TheCatt
The weirdest thing about that graphic is that I cannot figure out when it's from.
The US Tax Revenue data comes close to data from 2000, 2005, and 2010.
The "Fed budget" data comes from 2016.
The national debt # comes from 2022.
Closest year for the deficit: 2009
Recent budget cuts: I can't remember the last time we had budget cuts.
So what's the author of that thing going to do, vote out every single person? Hah! Enjoy your Kang or Kodos, buddy.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:01 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:47 pm
So what's the author of that thing going to do, vote out every single person? Hah! Enjoy your Kang or Kodos, buddy.
Right?
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:53 pm
by Leisher
Zillow isn't buying houses anymore.
Also, I guess they're selling homes at a loss.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:19 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:53 pm
Also, I guess they're selling homes at a loss.
I would really like to see that data. I've only heard a few stories with specifics, but they were not making money.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:45 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:19 am
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:53 pm
Also, I guess they're selling homes at a loss.
I would really like to see that data. I've only heard a few stories with specifics, but they were not making money.
I would give it to you, but I just saw it referred to in a tweet with a couple of examples screenshot. I don't remember the account or I'd go try and dig it up.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:44 pm
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:11 pm
Inflation is here, it's hurting the world, especially on energy, and won't ease up quickly like people hope.
Fed Chairman says Catt is right
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:29 am
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:19 am
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:53 pm
Also, I guess they're selling homes at a loss.
I would really like to see that data. I've only heard a few stories with specifics, but they were not making money.
They were losing a shitton of money
Revenue in Zillow’s Offers business, which competes with Opendoor, climbed to $1.17 billion in the quarter. That’s way up from $186 million a year earlier, which was in the middle of the pandemic and in a dry period for transactions. However, the homes segment, which is mostly Offers, lost $422 million in the quarter, producing an overall net loss at the company.
Losing $400M on $1,200M of revenue... that's... amazingly bad.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:15 am
by TheCatt
TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:01 am
Only 197k jobs added last month, but private employers hired 317k, which implies 120k public sector/government jobs were lost. This seems highly unlikely, and is probably an artifact of the statistical analysis used. I bet these numbers go up when revised in 1 month. August #s were also revised upward from prior #s.
!RmindMe 11/15/2021
We don't have the official restatement for September, and will have them in a couple of weeks.
But we have initial private data for October,
which smashed expectations hitting 571,000 jobs, versus estimate of 395,000.
Hopefully some of them decide to drive the school buses around here, since we're on day 3 of their sick out.
Bad Economic Predictions
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:36 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:15 am
TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:01 am
Only 197k jobs added last month, but private employers hired 317k, which implies 120k public sector/government jobs were lost. This seems highly unlikely, and is probably an artifact of the statistical analysis used. I bet these numbers go up when revised in 1 month. August #s were also revised upward from prior #s.
!RmindMe 11/15/2021
We don't have the official restatement for September, and will have them in a couple of weeks.
But we have initial private data for October,
which smashed expectations hitting 571,000 jobs, versus estimate of 395,000.
Hopefully some of them decide to drive the school buses around here, since we're on day 3 of their sick out.
I truly hope people are returning to work, but I'm cautious that many of them will be temporary.