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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:52 pm
by TheCatt
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Leading Economic Indicators forecasting a Q1/Q2 recession.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:48 am
by Leisher

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:53 am
by TheCatt
Good.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:36 pm
by Leisher
Another train derails in Ohio.

No chemicals this time.

This is what happens when you focus on getting record profits every quarter instead of putting money into your company.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:50 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:36 pm This is what happens when you focus on getting record profits every quarter instead of putting money into your company.
Also when the government cuts back on oversight + rules.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:15 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:50 pm
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:36 pm This is what happens when you focus on getting record profits every quarter instead of putting money into your company.
Also when the government cuts back on oversight + rules.
True, but if the company was actually concerned with its business, it wouldn't need the government to impose a lot of rules. They would already be concerned about keeping their employees, their reputation, and their customers' products safe.

The company AND your government currently don't give two shits about their employees, their reputation, their customers' products, or us.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:19 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:15 pm They would already be concerned about keeping their employees, their reputation, and their customers' products safe.
Weird how it's never worked out that way.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:53 pm
by GORDON
Anyone blaming Biden for the recent railroad union busting, yet?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:34 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:19 pm
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:15 pm They would already be concerned about keeping their employees, their reputation, and their customers' products safe.
Weird how it's never worked out that way.
Why would it? Adam Smith's invisible hand is broken. Ds and Rs hold the strings and run it like a fucking marionette.

Yes, human beings' natural greed will always play a role in shitty owners trying to run things in a shitty manner, but it would be scaled down without the Wall St. influence. Or should be all things being equal. If people actually had a choice on where to shop and work.
GORDON wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:53 pm Anyone blaming Biden for the recent railroad union busting, yet?
Random comments on Twitter, but nothing else. Honestly, the union busting itself was a dogshit move, but isn't the issue with these accidents. The railroads being publicly traded and government corruption are why tracks are in a terrible state and why railroads aren't operating efficiently.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:58 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:36 pm Another train derails in Ohio.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:57 am
by TheCatt
SVB and another bank fail; Others might be in trouble due to bank runs.

Little bit of chaos out there, but the Fed has stepped in to make sure that customers will not be harmed (not using "taxpayer money" but rather a fund paid for by existing banks, like FDIC); Bond holders and equity holders will be wiped out.

Fed's goal is to stop any more bank runs from happening, which is a good thing, imho.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:23 am
by GORDON
BANDAID

BANDAID

BANDAID

"Economy's great."

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:13 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:57 am Fed's goal is to stop any more bank runs from happening, which is a good thing, imho.
I've seen quite a bit of finger pointing at the Fed that their constant interest rate bumping is why these banks failed.

Truth?

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:06 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:13 am
TheCatt wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:57 am Fed's goal is to stop any more bank runs from happening, which is a good thing, imho.
I've seen quite a bit of finger pointing at the Fed that their constant interest rate bumping is why these banks failed.

Truth?
The correct finger to point would be at the banks who failed to take into account the possibility of the Fed raising rates in their securitization models. They had a gross mismatch between their deposit liquidity and their asset liquidity.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:25 pm
by Leisher
FYI, the articles I've seen on this were mostly CNN if politics matter here?

The biggest thing that was pointed out in the articles is that banks like SVB put huge money into treasury bonds, but when the fed raised rates, it basically made those bonds less valuable. They reported they were going to take a big hit as they sold those bonds at a loss, Wall St got wind, and everything came crashing down.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:36 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:25 pm FYI, the articles I've seen on this were mostly CNN if politics matter here?
There are voices on the left and right yelling at the Fed for raising rates, so I don't know that this one is neatly political.
Leisher wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:25 pm The biggest thing that was pointed out in the articles is that banks like SVB put huge money into treasury bonds, but when the fed raised rates, it basically made those bonds less valuable.
Yes, that's how it goes.

They had locked up money into multi-year bonds, but had deposits that people could take out in a single day. Liquidity mismatch. What's interesting is just how fast people can move/act, causing the failures. No one wanted to be caught with their money locked up.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:42 pm
by GORDON
For the record, a bank bailout for clients who have >250,000 in the bank is a great look as we're on the edge of telling poor college student to go fuck themselves on their school loan bailouts.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:04 pm
by Leisher
GORDON wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:42 pm For the record, a bank bailout for clients who have >250,000 in the bank is a great look as we're on the edge of telling poor college student to go fuck themselves on their school loan bailouts.
Those students CAN go fuck themselves.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:09 pm
by GORDON
But people who knew the federally protected bank limit deserve a bailout?

All.im saying is why the preferential bailouts for the people who kinda don't need it.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:11 pm
by Leisher
GORDON wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:09 pm But people who knew the federally protected bank limit deserve a bailout?
They can go fuck themselves too.