Bad Economic Predictions

For stuff that is general.
Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Thu May 02, 2024 1:03 pm Being a whistleblower is almost as dangerous as flying their planes.
Go there and say that. You deserve the credit. That's fantastic.
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Post by GORDON »

If the board is required to do what's best for the shareholders, to maximize their profits, then they could probably be sued by the shareholders for NOT murdering whistleblowers.

Wall Street model unsustainable?
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Stonks. It cuts off the bottom unless you click, which shows you real estate, cash, and 10 year treasuries.

Also, these are nominal returns, not inflation-adjusted.
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Post by Leisher »

So why are so many corporations buying housing? It can't all just be for relocating workers.

Although, I think I heard that the AirBnBs of the world are struggling? Turns out Bidenomics has been bad for tourism and vacations.
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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Fri May 03, 2024 9:31 am So why are so many corporations buying housing? It can't all just be for relocating workers.
It's 0% for relocating workers. It's mostly for yield. You buy a house, rent it out, collect 5%-10% roi. Which was pretty exceptional in low interest rate days.

Most AirBNB struggling I've heard has been relative. In 2020/2021, you couldn't leave the country, so AirBNB's were great. Once people had options, they stopped visiting places in the US. European travel has been on fire 2022-2024.

I also have like zero sympathy for AirBnbers.
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Post by TheCatt »

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/stock-m ... dates.html

Bad news is good news. New jobs only up 175k, unemployment up to 3.9%. So the stock market is up 1.4%, and bond yields are down 5 basis points (0.05%), and crypto is up.
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Leisher
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TheCatt wrote: Fri May 03, 2024 9:56 am I also have like zero sympathy for AirBnbers.
Ditto.
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Post by TheCatt »

GORDON wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2024 4:42 pm White water rapids are super fun right up to the waterfall.

But nah...... things that work now are guaranteed to last forever.
actually the waterfalls are pretty fun, too.

At any rate… now do cars, computers, etc.
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Post by Leisher »

Consumers are losing faith in the economy.

Dropping 13% when you're expecting a .3% drop is something.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

It occurs to me, my biggest problem with all the bitching is semantics. People keep bitching about the economy, when really, they have a problem with prices.

The economy is fine, but prices suck.

I'm no economist, but I feel like there's a difference.
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Post by TheCatt »

Cakedaddy wrote: Fri May 10, 2024 6:51 pm economist, but I feel like there's a difference.
Economics is really supply + demand, and prices are where supply + demand meet, so... I'd say they are one and the same.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Ok. . . then there's the 'good' economy, because 'good' things are happening (low unemployment, high GDP, other economy stuff), but then there's the economy is 'bad' because I don't like things about it. So the perception is different from the reality because of how it affects people.

On one side, there's people saying "The economy sucks" on the other hand, there's economists saying "No, the economy is good". Since the economists are technically correct, what should people be saying? I feel like with you saying 'Price = supply + demand' and people saying 'prices suck' are two different things.

Just because prices are where they're supposed to be, doesn't mean it doesn't suck.

I guess economists should start saying the economy is 'healthy', because it's not 'good'. People should start saying the economy 'sucks', not the economy is 'bad'. So again, semantics.
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Post by TheCatt »

The problem is that broad stats (GDP good, inflation dropping, wage growth good) doesn't mean everyone's economy is good. The past 5 years have been great for me. But, I'm basically immune to grocery store inflation. It just doesn't matter to me.

If you were having at tight budget before inflation took off, and food/groceries/car/rents are a big part of your budget, the economy sucks balls because your wages probably haven't kept up.

And there's a lot more people in that latter boat than that first boat. Like the top 10% have probably done great. Maybe top 20%.
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Cakedaddy
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Post by Cakedaddy »

When you say "have done great" what do you mean? How did they 'do great'?
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Post by TheCatt »

Cakedaddy wrote: Sun May 12, 2024 6:58 am How did they 'do great'?
Incomes have gone up in real terms. Stock market gains. Real estate gains. Etc.
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TheCatt wrote: Sat May 11, 2024 4:35 pm The problem is that broad stats (GDP good, inflation dropping, wage growth good) doesn't mean everyone's economy is good. The past 5 years have been great for me. But, I'm basically immune to grocery store inflation. It just doesn't matter to me.

If you were having at tight budget before inflation took off, and food/groceries/car/rents are a big part of your budget, the economy sucks balls because your wages probably haven't kept up.

And there's a lot more people in that latter boat than that first boat. Like the top 10% have probably done great. Maybe top 20%.
This is fair, and probably why Trump is leading in every poll.
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Post by GORDON »

Clinton won on "it's the economy, stupid."

80% of people feeling inflation are going to be resentful that everything is great for the wealthy, and they keep being told to stfu about it.
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Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 12:23 am they keep being told to stfu about it.
This is the part that irritates me.
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Post by TheCatt »

Inflation tamer than previous reports
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations.
Core inflation was at 3.6%, the lowest reading ex-food and energy since April 2021.
Markets hit new highs.
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Post by Leisher »

Outsourcing fast food workers is apparently now a thing.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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