Welcome to Thunderdome

TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:44 am

"White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow predicted Monday that the coronavirus outbreak is a short term economic hurdle — a matter of "weeks and months," he said — rather than a harbinger of longer-term strife in the U.S. economy."

Man he nailed that call.

What date did he make this terrible call? One hopes, for his sake, it was in Jan 2020 when Trump was actually being proactive about trying to prevent it and the Ds were calling it the "China Virus" and saying he was overreacting. Fucking weird how quickly those stances flip flopped.

GORDON wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:00 am coke dropping all their flavors

This one has really negatively affected me, and I'm not sure I can make it through the pandemic much longer. How does one survive while eating salsa without a vanilla cherry coke?

Troy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:48 am I noticed supply issues were way way worse when I was East of (and including) Ohio. Way more of "we are out" at restaurants and stores then in CA.

Probably a lot cheaper to give _______ to companies closer to the ports out West than to continue the shipping process further East.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:59 am What date did he make this terrible call? One hopes, for his sake, it was in Jan 2020 when Trump was actually being proactive about trying to prevent it and the Ds were calling it the "China Virus" and saying he was overreacting. Fucking weird how quickly those stances flip flopped.

April 2020, iirc. Might have been late March.

December jobs smashed expectations

807k private employer jobs added, vs 400k expected, and 505k in November.

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:24 am The "Buffet Indicator" says a market crash is coming.

Keep an eye on the Fed's ~$9T balance sheet. When that starts going down, rates should start moving up, and stocks down. They've already said they will taper buying, but no clear word on reducing the size of that thing.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:02 pm

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:24 am The "Buffet Indicator" says a market crash is coming.

Keep an eye on the Fed's ~$9T balance sheet. When that starts going down, rates should start moving up, and stocks down. They've already said they will taper buying, but no clear word on reducing the size of that thing.

OK, I'm not going to say I called it, but Fed minutes were release this afternoon and discuss shrinking the balance sheet.

Bond yields up on the news, stocks down.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:22 am December jobs smashed expectations

807k private employer jobs added, vs 400k expected, and 505k in November.

December jobs also disappointing, only up 199k vs 800k in the ADP report.

"Key inflation measure hits 39 year high"

Catt, are we all doomed?

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:06 pm "Key inflation measure hits 39 year high"

Catt, are we all doomed?

Nah. A lot of it is energy, which cratered in 2020. Inflation isn't ideal, but it's better than stagflation or deflation. I think the Feds steps will help and things will slow down in 2022 inflationwise, but probably still higher than normal. Let's guesttimate 4.0%. I'm also going to say no recession 2022.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:18 pm Let's guesttimate 4.0%. I'm also going to say no recession 2022.

Remind me?

!RmindMe 1/13/2023

TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:50 pm

TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:02 pm

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:24 am The "Buffet Indicator" says a market crash is coming.

Keep an eye on the Fed's ~$9T balance sheet. When that starts going down, rates should start moving up, and stocks down. They've already said they will taper buying, but no clear word on reducing the size of that thing.

OK, I'm not going to say I called it, but Fed minutes were release this afternoon and discuss shrinking the balance sheet.

Bond yields up on the news, stocks down.

Bond yields up 10 basis points (0.10) today, stocks down 1.5%
I feel like the march upwards is inevitable. Obviously there's a billion factors, but all equal, with just the Fed and the economy in the mix, rates are way below where they should be.

An interesting study came out recently showing how badly 10 year yields have lagged real inflation for the past 40+ years.

Basically, the yields right now are saying "Yeah, inflation is hot (7%), and growth is good (3%), but they will both end in one year"

"This robot is cheaper than a human."

https://www.wired.com/story/rent-robot- ... ying-human

I know my prediction for an automated McD's was the end of 2022. Did I make an overall automate-the-workforce prediction? $25/hour fast food workers will kill the economy.... more. Yeah there will be more money out there, but these corporations aren't just going to lower their profits. They're going to raise prices and that extra money wont spend any farther than it does now.

GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:24 am "This robot is cheaper than a human."

https://www.wired.com/story/rent-robot- ... ying-human

I know my prediction for an automated McD's was the end of 2022. Did I make an overall automate-the-workforce prediction? $25/hour fast food workers will kill the economy.... more. Yeah there will be more money out there, but these corporations aren't just going to lower their profits. They're going to raise prices and that extra money wont spend any farther than it does now.

But even this guy isn't removing workers, just supplementing with machines, like we've been doing for decades.

Figueroa says that he’d like to see 25 robots on the line within five years. He doesn’t envisage replacing any of the company’s 70 employees, but says Polar may not need to hire new workers.

Yeaaaahhhhh..... but...... you know how these things go. There may be a tipping point. 10k robots out there that replace 1 person each to get a specific job done, but now robot R&D gets a bigger budget because they're moving units, and now there's a better robot. Maybe it'll replace 1.25 people, now? We've got to be heading there, if we can keep the country limping along long enough to see it through.

GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:50 am Yeaaaahhhhh..... but...... you know how these things go. There may be a tipping point. 10k robots out there that replace 1 person each to get a specific job done, but now robot R&D gets a bigger budget because they're moving units, and now there's a better robot. Maybe it'll replace 1.25 people, now? We've got to be heading there, if we can keep the country limping along long enough to see it through.

But it is replacing people, or augmenting them? Or allowing them to do other things?

I guess the robot takeover is inevitable, but it sure seems like a slow march.

Fingers crossed. We're approaching a $20 whopper combo, if the restaurant is open at all.

GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:49 am Fingers crossed. We're approaching a $20 whopper combo, if the restaurant is open at all.

This. Due to kids' schedules I had to get fast food the other night. A whopper combo meal at my local restaurant was almost $12.

That's a sandwich, fries, and a drink. Within the past 7 years that same combo meal was $6.

Also, the restaurant has had signs on the drive thru kiosks for 2 years now saying, "Due to staff shortages we close at 8 p.m. until further notice."

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:31 am

GORDON wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:49 am Fingers crossed. We're approaching a $20 whopper combo, if the restaurant is open at all.

This. Due to kids' schedules I had to get fast food the other night. A whopper combo meal at my local restaurant was almost $12.

That's a sandwich, fries, and a drink. Within the past 7 years that same combo meal was $6.

Also, the restaurant has had signs on the drive thru kiosks for 2 years now saying, "Due to staff shortages we close at 8 p.m. until further notice."

I bet the milkshake machine was broke too