Post-Corona Economy
Post-Corona Economy
TO MY KNOWLEDGE, ok. I know they're getting some take-out business. She's reduced hours and is closed an extra day per week, though.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Post-Corona Economy
I was wondering about your mom's. If she was closer I'd order take out. We've been doing that for our favorite restaurants and ones owned by friends.
However, that brings up a whole other conversation about how delivery services suck. Have you ever compared a restaurant's normal prices to the ones delivery places charge? It's highway fucking robbery. I've heard a lot of restaurants are being squeezed by these delivery services during this crisis as well. Essentially, asking for more money or they won't deliver for their business.
However, that brings up a whole other conversation about how delivery services suck. Have you ever compared a restaurant's normal prices to the ones delivery places charge? It's highway fucking robbery. I've heard a lot of restaurants are being squeezed by these delivery services during this crisis as well. Essentially, asking for more money or they won't deliver for their business.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Post-Corona Economy
Bambino's Pizza:
Restaurant prices are 15% less than "Slice"-app prices. But Bambino's has a 15% upcharge on internet orders.
Identical prices whether you order direct from restaurant, or the Slice app.
Restaurant prices are 15% less than "Slice"-app prices. But Bambino's has a 15% upcharge on internet orders.
Identical prices whether you order direct from restaurant, or the Slice app.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Post-Corona Economy
If you're talking about UberEats, etc, they charge 30% as their base.Leisher wrote: However, that brings up a whole other conversation about how delivery services suck. Have you ever compared a restaurant's normal prices to the ones delivery places charge? It's highway fucking robbery. I've heard a lot of restaurants are being squeezed by these delivery services during this crisis as well. Essentially, asking for more money or they won't deliver for their business.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Post-Corona Economy
The USA is the top oil producer in the world. (Source)
Russia producing oil overtime in order to hurt the expensive producers. (Source)
At the same time, oil demand down in the USA, due to Corona and no one driving/flying. But everyone keeps producing oil in order to keep everyone working. (Source)
Prices begin to collapse. (Source)
Oil is now worth negative money per barrel, as there's a glut, no one's using it, and millions of barrels are still heading to the USA with nowhere to put them. (Source)
Now the speculation: how will this NOT put American oil production out of business? U.S. cost per barrel production was already three times higher than the in the middle east (Source).
And after corona is done, and people are driving back to work/flying, and winter comes and now people are buying heating oil again, and now there's zero American oil production,. What's to stop the price of gasoline from shooting above $4/gallon, and hurting the economy even more than it will already be hurting, at that point?
More fucked economy.
Russia producing oil overtime in order to hurt the expensive producers. (Source)
At the same time, oil demand down in the USA, due to Corona and no one driving/flying. But everyone keeps producing oil in order to keep everyone working. (Source)
Prices begin to collapse. (Source)
Oil is now worth negative money per barrel, as there's a glut, no one's using it, and millions of barrels are still heading to the USA with nowhere to put them. (Source)
Now the speculation: how will this NOT put American oil production out of business? U.S. cost per barrel production was already three times higher than the in the middle east (Source).
And after corona is done, and people are driving back to work/flying, and winter comes and now people are buying heating oil again, and now there's zero American oil production,. What's to stop the price of gasoline from shooting above $4/gallon, and hurting the economy even more than it will already be hurting, at that point?
More fucked economy.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Post-Corona Economy
TN, GA, and SC looking at varying degrees of opening up.
Right now, there's nowhere in the US to store oil (or almost nowhere), so prices have collapsed. They will need demand to pick up to get a rebound.
I'm skeptical of > $60 oil this year.
It will. But many rigs are not hard to restart. Someone will pick up the assets from bankrupt companies and restart.
It is not super hard to restart most rigs. I consult for a hedge fund that does oil market stuff, and can watch their rig counts go up + down each week as new ones open, or they shutter temporarily.GORDON wrote: And after corona is done, and people are driving back to work/flying, and winter comes and now people are buying heating oil again, and now there's zero American oil production,. What's to stop the price of gasoline from shooting above $4/gallon, and hurting the economy even more than it will already be hurting, at that point?
Right now, there's nowhere in the US to store oil (or almost nowhere), so prices have collapsed. They will need demand to pick up to get a rebound.
I'm skeptical of > $60 oil this year.
It's not me, it's someone else.
-
thibodeaux
- Posts: 8121
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 7:32 pm
Post-Corona Economy
The US oil business has ALWAYS been cyclical, at least in my lifetime. I grew up in Louisiana, and guys who don't work in the timber industry work in the oil industry (or leave). They're ALWAYS not working because the rig has been "stacked."
Unfortunately for them, not being the sharpest tools, they also ALWAYS have a brand new giant-ass pickup, jet ski, etc, that they now can't pay for.
Unfortunately for them, not being the sharpest tools, they also ALWAYS have a brand new giant-ass pickup, jet ski, etc, that they now can't pay for.
Post-Corona Economy
Nobody is asking the real questions - If I bring my lawnmower gas can to these oil future markets will they pay me to put gas in it?
Post-Corona Economy
Well... no. You'd have to be in Cushing, OK, between 5/1 and 5/31 for the negative futures. And they deliver wholesale.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Post-Corona Economy
This article says 0.1% of it went to larger public companies.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Post-Corona Economy
I am aware...
HAHA! I'll be rich bitch!GORDON wrote: And after corona is done, and people are driving back to work/flying, and winter comes and now people are buying heating oil again, and now there's zero American oil production,. What's to stop the price of gasoline from shooting above $4/gallon, and hurting the economy even more than it will already be hurting, at that point?
That is genuinely good news.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Post-Corona Economy
The Treasury Department is asking publicly traded companies to repay the loans they received from a program intended to aid small businesses hurt by the pandemic.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Post-Corona Economy
What is their definition of "larger company". The amount you can borrow is:
Total annual payroll for 2019 / 12 * 2.5. So, 2.5 months of average salary. What small company has $1,000,000 per month salary to end up with a $2.5 million loan? Granted, if you have 500 employees, that's only $2k per month per employee. I think the 500 employee cap was too high. And exempting restaurants from that rule was dumb too.
I think a fuck ton more than .1% of the money went to companies that didn't need it, but, they still met the requirements. In an effort to get money out fast, they left HUGE openings for abuse. For those companies to already be paid, when soooooooooo many more are still waiting to be processed means they have connections too. Just like any other government run program, it got hammered with corruption. But, it's not like we didn't see that coming.
I think, they should have had stronger rules. Not to try to get the money. Keep that easy. But their should have been language saying "When this is all over, you're going to get audited. And if we find that you didn't need it, then you have to pay it back". Right now. It's free money, and EVERYONE is trying to get as much as they can. Including me.
Prove you lost money during the shut down. And it should be based on 2020, not March/April. We are all losing money right now. I expect a rush by Q4 as things get back to normal which will balance out my year. Amount forgiven is based on true impact of the event. Stuff like that. This shouldn't be a free for all.
In the end, if I do get a PPP loan, I will be paying it back. Because I'm a great guy! But also because we are all on unemployment which means none of it will go towards payroll, which is mandatory for loan forgiveness. I'm applying so that I have cash on hand if needed to fund new projects depending on how long this lasts and how drained reserves become. My overhead is VERY low though.
What pisses me off are the companies bitching about not being able to work. Such as, landscape companies. They are suing here because they want to work. Their reasons?
1. They care about the employees and want to be able to take care of them.
2. They have inventory they bought that they need to deploy to recover the cost.
3. Some others that were examples of their bottom lines being hit.
My response?
1. They should all be on unemployment. They would be making $900 a week. How much different is that than what you pay them? You also said you got PPP loans. Which means you are paying your crews, for free. They are being taken care of.
2. Too bad. We all do.
3. Too bad.
Really, all I'm hearing is "I'm not making as much money as I wanted to. Let me put my people, and others at risk so I can profit". You can argue that lawn cutting is social distancing at its best. That's true. Until you need gas. Then you are exposed to the pump handle, credit card keypad, etc. That is a potential transfer area. Minor. Sure, but potential. And at a time when we are trying to minimize it, do your part!! But ya. Over all, the companies that I hear doing the most bitching are the ones who's profit margins are being hit and they want to put their techs in the field, while they sit and work from home. I know I'm in a fortunate position to have a business that does well, so I can ride this out. I know there are a lot of them out there that are hanging on, paycheck to paycheck, and that's just how they operate. And I do feel bad for them. Some of them are run by idiots who shouldn't own businesses, but others are just in a market that doesn't do well, but is necessary. And I wish the PPPs were going to them because they are the ones it was created for. But, government. . .
Also, a big concern of mine is, getting my techs back to work. When the shut down is lifted, and the calls start coming, I anticipate a lot of doctor's notes saying they still can't work and need to stay on unemployment. And I can't fire them because they are sick. I have to hold their job. Which means I have to find someone new to fill in, which exposes me to more unemployment costs if I have to let them go when my regulars are ready to go back to work (when their unemployment runs out). OH, and as a reminder. ANYONE on unemployment due to COVID-19, those unemployment costs do not go to the business's account. Normally, when an employee collects unemployment, it affects my insurance premiums (I have to pay that back). Right now, that is waived. It's costing me nothing for them all to be on unemployment. Another reason I KNOW that anyone talking about "wanting to take care of their employees and pay them" is code for "I'm not making as much money as I need to pay my own bills because I'm the only one who's salary is being cut. I need my techs out there so I can make my nut!"
Final thought, if you think about it, between unemployment at $900/week, PPP, Stimulus checks. . . The 99% are being taken care of. Quick quiz. How many TVs will stimulus checks buy?! Does anyone know anyone who's using their check to pay bills or doesn't see it simply as a bonus?
Total annual payroll for 2019 / 12 * 2.5. So, 2.5 months of average salary. What small company has $1,000,000 per month salary to end up with a $2.5 million loan? Granted, if you have 500 employees, that's only $2k per month per employee. I think the 500 employee cap was too high. And exempting restaurants from that rule was dumb too.
I think a fuck ton more than .1% of the money went to companies that didn't need it, but, they still met the requirements. In an effort to get money out fast, they left HUGE openings for abuse. For those companies to already be paid, when soooooooooo many more are still waiting to be processed means they have connections too. Just like any other government run program, it got hammered with corruption. But, it's not like we didn't see that coming.
I think, they should have had stronger rules. Not to try to get the money. Keep that easy. But their should have been language saying "When this is all over, you're going to get audited. And if we find that you didn't need it, then you have to pay it back". Right now. It's free money, and EVERYONE is trying to get as much as they can. Including me.
Prove you lost money during the shut down. And it should be based on 2020, not March/April. We are all losing money right now. I expect a rush by Q4 as things get back to normal which will balance out my year. Amount forgiven is based on true impact of the event. Stuff like that. This shouldn't be a free for all.
In the end, if I do get a PPP loan, I will be paying it back. Because I'm a great guy! But also because we are all on unemployment which means none of it will go towards payroll, which is mandatory for loan forgiveness. I'm applying so that I have cash on hand if needed to fund new projects depending on how long this lasts and how drained reserves become. My overhead is VERY low though.
What pisses me off are the companies bitching about not being able to work. Such as, landscape companies. They are suing here because they want to work. Their reasons?
1. They care about the employees and want to be able to take care of them.
2. They have inventory they bought that they need to deploy to recover the cost.
3. Some others that were examples of their bottom lines being hit.
My response?
1. They should all be on unemployment. They would be making $900 a week. How much different is that than what you pay them? You also said you got PPP loans. Which means you are paying your crews, for free. They are being taken care of.
2. Too bad. We all do.
3. Too bad.
Really, all I'm hearing is "I'm not making as much money as I wanted to. Let me put my people, and others at risk so I can profit". You can argue that lawn cutting is social distancing at its best. That's true. Until you need gas. Then you are exposed to the pump handle, credit card keypad, etc. That is a potential transfer area. Minor. Sure, but potential. And at a time when we are trying to minimize it, do your part!! But ya. Over all, the companies that I hear doing the most bitching are the ones who's profit margins are being hit and they want to put their techs in the field, while they sit and work from home. I know I'm in a fortunate position to have a business that does well, so I can ride this out. I know there are a lot of them out there that are hanging on, paycheck to paycheck, and that's just how they operate. And I do feel bad for them. Some of them are run by idiots who shouldn't own businesses, but others are just in a market that doesn't do well, but is necessary. And I wish the PPPs were going to them because they are the ones it was created for. But, government. . .
Also, a big concern of mine is, getting my techs back to work. When the shut down is lifted, and the calls start coming, I anticipate a lot of doctor's notes saying they still can't work and need to stay on unemployment. And I can't fire them because they are sick. I have to hold their job. Which means I have to find someone new to fill in, which exposes me to more unemployment costs if I have to let them go when my regulars are ready to go back to work (when their unemployment runs out). OH, and as a reminder. ANYONE on unemployment due to COVID-19, those unemployment costs do not go to the business's account. Normally, when an employee collects unemployment, it affects my insurance premiums (I have to pay that back). Right now, that is waived. It's costing me nothing for them all to be on unemployment. Another reason I KNOW that anyone talking about "wanting to take care of their employees and pay them" is code for "I'm not making as much money as I need to pay my own bills because I'm the only one who's salary is being cut. I need my techs out there so I can make my nut!"
Final thought, if you think about it, between unemployment at $900/week, PPP, Stimulus checks. . . The 99% are being taken care of. Quick quiz. How many TVs will stimulus checks buy?! Does anyone know anyone who's using their check to pay bills or doesn't see it simply as a bonus?
Post-Corona Economy
The size of the typical loan nationally was $206,000, according to the SBA report released April 16.
That's a big number. Your local restaurant doesn't need that much. These were larger small companies who's banks took care of them and made sure they were at the top of the loan queue.
Post-Corona Economy
If we couldn't have a lawn service, our lawn would look like shit. I'm glad they are allowed here.
More like the 95%, iirc. But just nit-picking.
There are already companies complaining about not being able to get people to work due to their high benefits. But, it's a pandemic, shit's going to happen.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Post-Corona Economy
Ours too. I don't even own a lawnmower. But I'd still rather have tall grass than risk spreading more than needed. Also, our grass still isn't growing much because it's still cold up here. Advantage North.
That's cool, because I had no source for the 99% amount anyway. But I felt the point was accurate.
People don't need a Pandemic to try to work the system and not work. The Pandemic is just lobbing a slow one to them.
Post-Corona Economy
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Post-Corona Economy
I don't know about JP, but restaurants were exempt from the 500 employee limit, etc, and were eligible to apply. There may be moral, possibly, ethical 'rules' broken, but not laws, I don't think.