Preferred media. THE way to buy movies on physical media. As popular as DVDs were last year.
You are making an assumption here that I believe is incorrect. You are assuming that the preferred media will be a physical one. I will bet you $10 that 7 years from now the preferred way to consume media is completely divorced from physical formats (i.e. downloads or purchased as digital files on a flash drive or just streamed online, etc).
I expect we'll see high-speed access much more widespread by then than you think. Some of the stuff being tested on Internet2 is pretty promising and could lead to even crappy old copper being able to sustain a decent enough throughput for video enjoyment.
Edited By TPRJones on 1271684278
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
I think Internet 2 is a long way off. I think ISPs are going to be allowed to throttle the shit out of media downloads, barring the Second American Revolution (The secret one).
I take your bet.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Indeed, I say the most popular will be independent of the physical medium. Probably downloads or streaming on demand, but if wide area high-speed access doesn't come into being as much as I think it will there's also the possibility of media coming on flash drives, or from kiosks where you plug in your own flash drive. Either way I don't see physical distribution of disc-based media still being the primary method within seven years.
Edited By TPRJones on 1271701940
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
I think units would be better than dollars. That'll level the price-point playing field.
You've got to only count units sold as permanent copies. Anything rented shouldn't count.
Even if it's sold on the iPad, but can't be transferred to another device, it shouldn't count.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Shelves at Best Buy will still be full of BDs in 7 years.
Hell, they're still mainly DVDs at this point. I expect Blu-Rays will be the majority in 7 years with DVDs consuming an aisle or two.
Want to know a massive obstacle in the way of full on digital distribution? Movies for children.
In turn, parents will be accustomed to buying physical copies of movies. Sure, they'll rent them digitally, buy they'll buy their favorites on a DVD/Blu-Ray.
When you can buy movies digitally and play them on any TV in your house, even when cable service is down, AND transmit them to your mini-van for your family vacation...that's when digital distribution will force physically media to the curb permanently.
Thinking about it, there's also an issue of storage. Hard drive space might be cheap, but consumer electronics, particularly those that would hold said digital movies are WAYYYYYYYYY behind the curve right now. The sad part is the curve isn't that tough to reach.
Edited By Leisher on 1271727248
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
I disagree. There's a very good change that this will be the primary way that media is consumed in seven years, which is part of my argument. On-demand downloading and memberships to places like Netflix are part of what will kill Blu-ray.
Thinking about it, there's also an issue of storage
While I don't think we'l be quite to this point in seven years, in not much longer than that storage won't be a problem. Not because we'll have scads of storage (we will) but because bandwidth will be pervasive, reliable, and dirt cheap. Why store it when you can watch it on-demand through the cloud any time anywhere with connections as unlikely to break down as whatever media player you would have previously owned? But that's about 10 to 12 years away, not 7.
Shelves at Best Buy will still be full of BDs in 7 years.
Fair enough. I say they either will be out of that business, selling them on flash drives, or hosting kiosks to sell them as digital downloads. If there are still Blu-rays on the shelves of Best Buy in seven years it's because they're marked down for quick sale and they haven't been able to shift them.
Edited By TPRJones on 1271761150
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
memberships to places like Netflix are part of what will kill Blu-ray.
If Netflix is still renting Blu-Rays, then Best Buy will be selling them on shelves. Ditto for Amazon, Walmart, etc.
One outlet you're forgetting that is a huge player in this is Red Box. One dollar a night rentals and you get them at any gas station, convenience store, etc. They're the fastest growing video rental business, by a mile. Blockbuster is trying to sue them simply because they know if they don't stop them, it's lights out.
So keep in mind that digital distribution has to offset the ease of renting a DVD at your normal stops on the way to work or home daily, AND be in the same price range as $1.
I don't see that happening in 7 years. That model should also destroy the flash drive projection simply due to costs.
It also damages the kiosk plan simply due to cost. That $1 price point is going to be tough to beat.
Will it eventually be beat by more convenience, and potentially price? Of course, but not in the next 7 years.
You're also overlooking the market's slow nature of adapting. How many homes have internet access? Not as many as you think? I believe the number is around 50%. Fewer have broadband. How many homes have Blu-Ray? How many have cable? How many have HD TVs? How many still use VCRs? You've got to account for all those folks. Yes, they will be forced to change at some point, but not in 7 years.
There's also folks like Gordon and I, the collectors. I would argue that we're a very large part of the market. That's why you see so many box sets and extras. Digital distribution wipes us out.
And there's still something to be said for feeling a product in your hands rather than looking at text on a screen.
Why store it when you can watch it on-demand through the cloud any time anywhere with connections as unlikely to break down as whatever media player you would have previously owned?
Again, can I access my media at any time? From anywhere? Really? So if there's another East Coast blackout and I'm driving from Toledo to Bangor, my van's TV will still be playing Spongebob to entertain my kids?
And "unlikely to break down as whatever media player you would have previously owned"? Really? There's at least one thread bitching about Time Warner's service around here somewhere. You're telling me DVD players break more often than Time Warner goes down?
Oh, and while we're on that subject, how about companies like TW trying to charge based on how much bandwidth your use? Let's say digital downloads are $2.95 a movie through Netflix. $4.95 through TW. (Rental prices.) Why wouldn't TW charge me more for the bandwidth I use when I'm renting from someone other than them?
And again, I point back to that $1 price point of Red Box.
Also, how much to purchase a movie outright so I can watch it whenever I want? Keep in mind that the studios still want their money, so it can't be super cheap. Sure you save money on packaging and shipping, but you add new costs in digital distribution and storage, especially bandwidth.
And what happens when Twilight Part 12 comes out and 40 million women try to access the movie at the same time?
All these issues get resolved in 7 years? I don't buy it.
The technology may exist to make everything you've said possible, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. It doesn't mean the backbone is there to support it. It doesn't mean the market is going to accept it. Etc.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Leisher wrote:If Netflix is still renting Blu-Rays, then Best Buy will be selling them on shelves. Ditto for Amazon, Walmart, etc.
They won't be. Blu-ray will be dead (or at least well on the way to dying) by then. Same goes for Redbox: they'll still be doing their thing but in different ways that don't involve Blu-rays or DVDs. Well, except for a few boxes in rural areas maybe, the same areas that still have a few VHS rental stores right now.
It also damages the kiosk plan simply due to cost. That $1 price point is going to be tough to beat.
Are you saying it's more expensive to build a kiosk that simply copies a digital file to your flash drive than it is to build one that tracks and distributes an inventory of plastic discs?
How many homes have internet access? Not as many as you think? I believe the number is around 50%. Fewer have broadband. How many homes have Blu-Ray?
According to government stas, about 74% of US citizens have access at home and about 62% of US homes have broadband as of June 2009.* Blu-ray penetration is harder to pin down, but the numbers I see with a google search of the experts seem to average around 25%.
And "unlikely to break down as whatever media player you would have previously owned"? Really? There's at least one thread bitching about Time Warner's service around here somewhere. You're telling me DVD players break more often than Time Warner goes down?
Not at all. I'm saying in about 10 to 12 years I think that will be the case. Although I'm not sure that Time Warner will still be a major player in that market by then. And I phrased it that way to express that I don't think we'll ever have 100% uptime, but I do think we'll reach the point of 99.999% or better uptime, which is certainly good enough.
Oh, and while we're on that subject, how about companies like TW trying to charge based on how much bandwidth your use?
I don't think that will last. If they push it, it'll push them out of the market that much faster. The world is changing radically, and companies can either work to find new revenue streams that work in the new world or they can go out of business. Right now they're like agrarians grumbling about the evils of those new-fangled industrialists.
All these issues get resolved in 7 years?
No. I wish that were so, but it'll be another 15 to 20 years before it all gets resolved. But I do think within seven years enough changes will have gone on to make Blu-ray (and other physically-permanent forms of media distribution) less desirable and well on their way out.
They won't be. Blu-ray will be dead (or at least well on the way to dying) by then. Same goes for Redbox: they'll still be doing their thing but in different ways that don't involve Blu-rays or DVDs. Well, except for a few boxes in rural areas maybe, the same areas that still have a few VHS rental stores right now.
You need a qualifier here because you're a little all over the map. You have to admit that "will be dead or on the way" is a bit too much wiggle room.
I could easily argue that any technology is on its way to dying the day it hits shelves.
Are you saying it's more expensive to build a kiosk that simply copies a digital file to your flash drive than it is to build one that tracks and distributes an inventory of plastic discs?
It depends, what is the price point of the movies rented or sold at the kiosk and where are they located?
According to government stas, about 74% of US citizens have access at home and about 62% of US homes have broadband as of June 2009.*
I've got issue with those numbers, but will accept them as fact for this debate to make things easy. Although, I will say that 74% is still low considering BBs started in the 70s/80s and the net as we know it in the 90s.
Still, this is a heck of a leap you're suggesting in 7 years for 38% of the population.
Not at all. I'm saying in about 10 to 12 years I think that will be the case. Although I'm not sure that Time Warner will still be a major player in that market by then. And I phrased it that way to express that I don't think we'll ever have 100% uptime, but I do think we'll reach the point of 99.999% or better uptime, which is certainly good enough.
Again, you need to really qualify where your position is going to be because it makes it tough to argue if I can't nail you down to something. Obviously you have time lines here that I could jump all over, but can't because I don't know if you mean Blu-Rays will be dead or just dying.
And please understand, if Netflix isn't renting them and Best Buy isn't selling them, I consider them dead, not dying. DVDs are dying, and you can still buy/rent them.
I don't think that will last. If they push it, it'll push them out of the market that much faster. The world is changing radically, and companies can either work to find new revenue streams that work in the new world or they can go out of business. Right now they're like agrarians grumbling about the evils of those new-fangled industrialists.
I'll just say that I truly hope you're 100% right on this point, but I fear that's not how our country works anymore. I mean, show me some examples where the government hasn't completely hindered a true capitalism system from occurring.
No. I wish that were so, but it'll be another 15 to 20 years before it all gets resolved. But I do think within seven years enough changes will have gone on to make Blu-ray (and other physically-permanent forms of media distribution) less desirable and well on their way out.
Again, completely contrary to your first statement in this post, and impossible to pin you down to a specific position.
I honestly think of the folks who have posted in this thread that everyone knows what's coming, what's going, etc. we're just describing it in different ways, and have slightly different expectations about how soon it will arrive.
The only reason I'm debating against your stance is because I believe you're giving the consumers entirely too much credit, especially in a weak economy. People barely know how to use their DVD players now. They certainly don't know how to use their PCs. How many of the 25% who own Blu-Rays actually plug them into the net?
On top of that, you're ignoring my argument about usage for the children. Movies for kids are why you can buy movies. Remember when VHS tapes were $100 a piece? Someone realized that parents wanted movies for their kids so they could use them to entertain their kids while they did other things. It's still a massive market. I haven't looked, but it's probably the biggest part of home movie sales, although I'm sure geeks are a close second.
Point being, they have to resolve that issue before the next wave can be accepted. If someone can't put on a flick to keep their kid entertained during a flight, car ride, etc., then the public isn't buying it.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
If someone can't put on a flick to keep their kid entertained during a flight, car ride, etc., then the public isn't buying it.
Could be easily taken care of by a ubiquitous, universal storage device that you can carry around, provided all involved parties play ball. While you might not be able to download anything you want at any time, anything that you do grab will be permanently stored. Download a movie from a service accessed via your TV/internet connection to a portable, external storage device. Sync it up with any third-party device. You can already sort of do that now if you get an mp3 device that hooks up to your music data source (laptop/desktop) that can also plug into your car's radio.
EDIT : Again, whether or not all the involved industries will let this happen painlessly is a matter for debate.
Edited By Malcolm on 1271792403
Diogenes of Sinope: "It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
You need a qualifier here because you're a little all over the map. You have to admit that "will be dead or on the way" is a bit too much wiggle room.
By "well on the way" I mean that it may still be used, it may still even be sold, but it won't be the primary for most people. Sort of like VHS was a few years ago, when DVD had it beaten but it was still sort of around but no one would take it seriously anymore.
It depends, what is the price point of the movies rented or sold at the kiosk and where are they located?
Irrelevant to this point. I'm saying if you can have a kiosk at a location renting out DVD & Blu-ray for $1, you can do the same thing (and probably cheap) with a means of digital distribution kiosk. The kiosk is in the same place and the movies are the same in either case, the only difference is swapping out the mechanics of disc handling with something with a USB port on it.
Again, you need to really qualify where your position is going to be because it makes it tough to argue if I can't nail you down to something.
Well, I haven't actually been to the future, so I don't know for sure. Ask me again in 10 to 12 years. All I'll commit to for now is the original bet with GORDON.
DVDs are dying...
I wouldn't go that far yet. They're still the primary means of media consumption, far outselling Blu-ray by something like a factor of 8 to 1. I would agree that they are highly likely to be no longer the primary medium within seven years, though.
I mean, show me some examples where the government hasn't completely hindered a true capitalism system from occurring.
I wish I could. On the other hand, show me examples where the government was able to stop an important technology from advancing? Once the box is opened and all that.
The most they can do is slow things down a bit. They could sort of stop it, but only here. The rest of the world would keep advancing. In that case eventually it wouldn't matter, either the pressure to have it here too would be too strong to stop or we'd become irrelevant as a nation (given that it's an important enough technology in question, of course).
...we're just describing it in different ways, and have slightly different expectations about how soon it will arrive.
I agree. I'm much more optimistic about the accelerating tide of progress, but there's no fundamental differences in direction here.
The only reason I'm debating against your stance is because I believe you're giving the consumers entirely too much credit, especially in a weak economy. People barely know how to use their DVD players now. They certainly don't know how to use their PCs. How many of the 25% who own Blu-Rays actually plug them into the net?
That's actually part of why I think the change will speed up. The newer TVs and media players that handle digital that I've seen are pretty good, and very easy to use. With DVDs and Blu-ray, you have to at least be able to put the disc in right side up. Digital distribution (with the right user-friendly systems which we'll see coming along) aren't nearly that befuddling.
On top of that, you're ignoring my argument about usage for the children.
This is admittedly something that will be a hurdle in the movement to fully streaming cloud-based systems. Until wifi gets to the point where it's always available everywhere in the country for dirt cheap, there will still be some sort of physical option involved in media distribution. But in terms of digital downloads and point-of-sale kiosks USB flash drives are a better choice. I think within seven years more diaper bags will have a flash drive pouch than have a stack of DVDs/Blu-rays. They're more convenient because you can put several onto one tiny flash drive, which means less stuff to lug around and keep track of.
So, has this thread been totally derailed yet?
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
