This time may be different
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This time may be different
So far, in the past 60 years, in the United States alone, yes. Inversion -> recession.Cakedaddy wrote:But does every inverted curve lead to a recession? If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign? Did the curve recover, then recession? Two years of invert? Has there ever been an invert, recover, then invert again before a recession hit?Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...
Yes, as it typically is showing that long term growth prospects have dwindled.If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign?
2 consecutive quarters of contraction. Unsure if they are measuring from the first date of inversion to the start of the recession, but that would make the most sense.
Only until the recession is declared... not until it starts. That being said, historically the recession has followed 6 to 17 months later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_cur ... ield_curve
0.5% of our exports... and 367 minutes of our economic output.
Stock futures down about 1% on the newsTheCatt wrote: more tariffs on China
Yes, but are tariffs the answer for that?Leisher wrote: Trying to find the silver lining in these tariffs, which are always a stupid idea, I guess one could say Trump isn't wrong in trying to get China to stop stealing from us. Not just IP either. Most corporate espionage is done by China, which is troubling when you look at their Made in China 2025 plan.