WORST CASE SCENARIO.

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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

Yeah, I posted that article Catt, but the one I was thinking of was a Yahoo article. I know someone in the article said "4 hurricanes will make landfall in the U.S.".

I really wish I could find it again. I understand what you're saying about NOAA's predictions and I wish I could show you who said the 4 canes thing. (No, it wasn't Jean Dixon.)
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Post by TheCatt »

Yahoo Article
Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Seen
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than normal due to warmer ocean waters, with as many as ten hurricanes, and three to five of them could be major, the U.S. government's top climate agency predicted on Tuesday.

"We are right now in ... a period of more active hurricane seasons," said Conrad Lautenbacher, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "It just takes one hurricane to make it a bad year for everyone here."

NOAA foresees 13 to 17 tropical storms this season, with seven to 10 developing into hurricanes. Three to five could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 mph (177 kmh), the agency said in its annual forecast.

An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms, of which six reach hurricane wind speed of 74 mph (119 kph), including two major hurricanes, NOAA said. The hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1, typically peaks between August 1 and late October.

Earlier forecasts for the season also have predicted the return of an active pattern this year. A year ago, just 10 storms formed and no major hurricanes reached the United States.

The 2007 season got off to an early start this month when subtropical storm Andrea formed off the U.S. Atlantic Coast, making it the first named storm of the year.

In the devastating 2005 Atlantic hurricane season a record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage. The 2005 season generated 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes.

The storms also slammed U.S. offshore oil and natural gas platforms and shut coastal refineries, sending fuel prices to then-record highs.

LA NINA THREAT

Weather forecaster AccuWeather.com has predicted 13 or 14 tropical storms or hurricanes would form in the Atlantic this year and six or seven could hit the United States, with the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico oil installations at high risk.

The Colorado State University team under forecast pioneer William Gray predicted 17 storms, of which nine would become hurricanes. WSI Corporation and London-based Tropical Storm Risk also have predicted an active season.

Gerry Bell, a top NOAA forecaster, said while it was not possible to predict how many hurricanes might make landfall in the United States this year, similar seasons have seen between two and four storms hit the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

But he said La Nina conditions could develop in the eastern Pacific in the next one to three months, adding to the likelihood of above-average hurricane activity.

La Nina, which means "little girl" in Spanish, is an abnormal cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino, or "little boy," has the opposite effect.

"If La Nina develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Nina becomes," said Bell.

NOAA will update its hurricane outlook in early August.




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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

I think you stand corrected.
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GORDON
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Post by GORDON »

I know for a fact I read many "record hurricane season" articles last year, citing global warming, in the MSM. That was the summer that no hurricanes hit NC, compared to 3 the year or two before. I don't recall any bad hurricanes in the US the summer after Katrina (which Al Gore blamed on George Bush and global warming, iirc). I'm sure you'll refresh my memory of theer were.

No, I don't know who was being quoted.

But I remember reading them, and Leisher rememebrs reading them, and I was subjected to all the "doom and gloom/republicans hate the earth/we're all gonna die" crap on the leftie blogs I peruse... so you don't have to.

You argument IS that a record hurricane season wasn't predicted, right? We here can't help it when the MSM purges their news archives getting rid of stories that make them look like absolute jackasses. We didn't keep our own records, history has been rewriten, and we should all trust the enviro-nazis.




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Post by TheCatt »

My argument is that no one said "4 hurricanes will hit the US this year."

But I can make the other argument too. I know above average years have been predicted for the past few years. I hear it from far more reliable sources than the MSM [which, btw, does not make such predictions], without any sort of "global warming is killing us all" intent. If you go to NOAA/CSU you'll see adjectives like busy, above average, active, etc. You'll never see "record." Especially given what 2005 brought, I can't see any rational forecaster having called for a record 2006 or 2007. And, when you look at their forecasts, they don't.
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Post by TheCatt »

You are confusing people saying "OMG, global warming will make hurricanes kill us all" with actual predictions.
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Post by GORDON »

I'm not really sure what we're arguing. The original point (of this hurrucane argument thread) was that leftie environmentalists claimed we'd have record hurricanes due to global warming, "doom and gloom," and it seemed like you were arguing, then it didn't seem like you were arguing, but now I don't know what point you're defending.

This obfuscation is how you never have to concede a point, I think. You've got it down to a science. I mean that in a good way. America II will need diplomats like you.




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Post by TheCatt »

And here's Al's actual words.
Here's what I think we here understand about Hurricane Katrina and global warming. Yes, it is true that no single hurricane can be blamed on global warming. Hurricanes have come for a long time, and will continue to come in the future. Yes, it is true that the science does not definitively tell us that global warming increases the frequency of hurricanes - because yes, it is true there is a multi-decadal cycle, twenty to forty years that profoundly affects the number of hurricanes that come in any single hurricane season. But it is also true that the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans evaporating into the storm - thus magnifying its destructive power - makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.
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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote:
Leisher wrote:The predictions were for the U.S.
You are mistaken.

The predictions are for the entire Atlantic basin.

People then make additional predictions on top of that for landfall in the U.S., but the hurricane season affects the entire west of Atlantic.
Here's the original argument I made. The same point I then backed up several times.
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Post by GORDON »

Yeah, he said that in English, but when he turned around and said it in arabic it was all "George Bush hates the earth and makes hurricanes with global warming!"

Plus on the cover of "An Inconvenient Truth" factory smoke is spewing a hurricane.
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GORDON
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Post by GORDON »

TheCatt wrote:
TheCatt wrote:
Leisher wrote:The predictions were for the U.S.
You are mistaken.

The predictions are for the entire Atlantic basin.

People then make additional predictions on top of that for landfall in the U.S., but the hurricane season affects the entire west of Atlantic.
Here's the original argument I made. The same point I then backed up several times.
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Post by TheCatt »

Also, I've still seen no evidence that anyone predicted "worst ever on record," as was also claimed.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

Sorry, this chain slipped under my radar.
I think you stand corrected.


Based on the evidence you provided and the evidence I can't dig up, I can't argue that. However, I will point out that the article you linked is NOT the one I linked. The one I linked had the standard Yahoo background and was an AP article summarizing the NOAA's predictions.

Not being able to find the original article doesn't surprise me in the least considering Yahoo's habit of altering/updating articles.

I do still stand by what I remember seeing, although I concede that it was probably a reporter's viewpoint rather than a quote from any scientist.

Still, that does not discount the fear mongering that does occur, which was the purpose of Gordon's post. There is no way any human being can deny that "global warming" is something Americans are warned about on a daily basis. The warnings are not in the vein of "Hey, we should keep an eye on this", but "We are all going to die because of this."
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by GORDON »

Leisher wrote:The warnings are not in the vein of "Hey, we should keep an eye on this", but "We are all going to die because of this."

What is scary to me is that as this gets more and more attention... and people become more and more convinced it is FACT and not somewhere between theory and hypothesis, and then they start making decisions which affect MY life... whether it be getting a law passed that says I can't set my home's thermostat higher than 55F in the winter in order to save energy, or just flat-out kill me if I drive a gas-guzzling car, and they'll consider it self defense because they are so indoctrinated.

That's a long sentence.




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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Do you mean this Yahoo article? If not, I can't find a link you made.

I generally agree as to the fear-mongering.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

Do you mean this Yahoo article? If not, I can't find a link you made.


Yeah, but it obviously expired.

Oh well.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote:
Do you mean this Yahoo article? If not, I can't find a link you made.
Yeah, but it obviously expired.

Oh well.
K...

Well, then that is not the article you remember, or your memory is faulty. If you look at the link, you'll see "s/nm/" in one part of it.

the two letter code "nm" means Reuters.
If it were an AP article, it would be "s/ap/"
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

Well, then that is not the article you remember, or your memory is faulty. If you look at the link, you'll see "s/nm/" in one part of it.

the two letter code "nm" means Reuters.
If it were an AP article, it would be "s/ap/"


No, I was just using "the AP" as the example. Kind of how people will say "Coke" when referring to pop despite the fact that they could mean Pepsi, RC, Jolt, etc.
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Post by TheCatt »

Ah. OK... well, that's the article, then, according to archive.org.
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