Post-Corona Economy

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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Quick, everyone sell your house and move in with family! Oh, wait :)

But yeah, feel pretty frothy, and 5% mortgages aren't going to help.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:48 pm Quick, everyone sell your house and move in with family! Oh, wait
I'd get upset, but my bank statement says I feel awesome about it. :D
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:45 pm
TheCatt wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:48 pm Quick, everyone sell your house and move in with family! Oh, wait
I'd get upset, but my bank statement says I feel awesome about it. :D
:)
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Cakedaddy
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Well of course there's a bubble. Anyone shopping knows that prices are extremely inflated right now. Sure, demand is high, stock is low, etc. But people have things priced ridiculously high in some areas.

I've seen some houses that were listed in the 400's in 2019, and then taken off the market. Now, they are listed at 850k and (who could have predicted) are still not selling.
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Post by TheCatt »

Things here are insane... but I'm guessing they cool off this year.
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Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:54 am
Leisher wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:36 am Job market is still nuts.

4.4M quit
6.2M hired
11.3M job openings.
That quit-hired-fired gap implies the labor force should be very close to pre-pandemic #s once March labor numbers are out.
The moves in the jobless rates came as the labor force participation rate increased one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.4%, to within 1 point of its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
Not quite as close as the #s implied, but getting closer.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by Cakedaddy »

That type of thing is not a "one size fits all" type thing. You take me in my early days at OAPI, and I would easily maintain 100% productivity over the 4 days. Take me at my last days at Lason, and I only have to be 50% productive over 4 days instead of 5. People who hate their jobs and spend the whole day on message boards will still do that. Again, take me at the beginning, and I couldn't even get everything done in 40 hours. I was working 60 hour weeks consistently the first 2 years I worked there, and still had more to do. That was awesome because everything was new, and OAPI encouraged us to explore new things. I learned more about IT related subjects the 3 years I was at OAPI than I did the next 7 at other jobs.

So, I have to ask, how do you measure productivity? Later years 'me' might have made a slight bit more effort the 4 days of work, but only so I didn't mess up the 4 day work week setup. I was very much in "Do just enough to not get fired" mode. Does that mean the 4 day work week is a success? Because you are getting the same amount of work from me? Which was already WAY WAY below what you would have gotten from me 3-5 years earlier. And then, it would only be successful for a finite period as I would learn ways to continue to slack off more and more over time. I will admit that I completely took advantage of my employer the last couple of years I was there. But, I also don't think I'm all that unique. A co-worker once said "It's the worker's goal to get paid as much as possible for doing the least amount of work, and it's the opposite for the employer". Granted, do what you love and you'll never work a day in your life. But how many people do you know that love their job so much that they would do it regardless of pay amount?

I'm rambling now. But this "Experiment" thing is dumb and immeasurable in my opinion, and certainly wouldn't apply across the board. It will just be a 'perk' or something different to offer to bring people on. But bottom line, the company is still trying to get you to do as much work as possible for the lowest possible price.
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Post by TheCatt »

Inflation high, Fed going to tighten up and soon.
In addition, markets expect the Fed to lay out a plan at its May meeting for running down some of the nearly $9 trillion in assets, primarily Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on its balance sheet. According to Brainard’s Tuesday comments, that process will be swift.

“The [FOMC] will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting,” she said. “Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017-19.”

Back then, the Fed allowed $50 billion in proceeds to roll off each month from maturing bonds and reinvested the rest. Market expectations are that the pace could double this time around.
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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

It's not me, it's someone else.
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Post by GORDON »

GORDON wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:24 am "This robot is cheaper than a human."

https://www.wired.com/story/rent-robot- ... ying-human

I know my prediction for an automated McD's was the end of 2022. Did I make an overall automate-the-workforce prediction? $25/hour fast food workers will kill the economy.... more. Yeah there will be more money out there, but these corporations aren't just going to lower their profits. They're going to raise prices and that extra money wont spend any farther than it does now.
I'd guessed it would be McD's, but Chipotle is the first one I've seen in the news.

Automating their chip making. Baby steps.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/chipotle-te ... ing-robots
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Post by Leisher »

Is this where we've been talking about people returning to the office?

Riot Games wants their workers back. The workers aren't thrilled.

Honestly, I think a gaming company is where you do need some real face time to get things done properly. Not saying folks can't work from home a lot, but pretty sure recent studies have proven the positives of working face to face with a team. Again, not for everything!!!
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

BoA continues warning about impending recession.

Meanwhile, there's an article up on Yahoo about new homebuyers being outbid 6 times...

Biden admin is clearly trying to pin inflation on Putin and Ukraine.

However, as CNN notes in that article:
(It's worth noting here that inflation had been surging prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the United States' decision to stop importing all Russian oil.)
That's not me picking on them as I also agree with this from the article:
When that happens, you look for someone to blame. And, if past is prologue, you blame the party in charge.
Now, that is, at some level unfair. It is very difficult for the president of the United States to deal with rising inflation -- particularly given the ongoing international crisis occasioned by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by thibodeaux »

Leisher wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:57 pm Biden admin is clearly trying to pin inflation on Putin and Ukraine.

However, as CNN notes in that article:
(It's worth noting here that inflation had been surging prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the United States' decision to stop importing all Russian oil.)
Fact check: FALSE! I expect Biden and team to be de-platformed for spreading misinformation.
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Post by TheCatt »

My job is part-time in the office, and I think that makes sense for a lot of jobs. I'd be mad if someone wanted me in fulltime.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by GORDON »

Mine was slightly adjusted up last year, so I'm prolly good another decade. My county is typically slow to do adjustments. Doesn't hurt having a nuclear power plant in the county also paying taxes.
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