Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:18 pm
TheCatt wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:42 pm
Leisher wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 6:09 pm Elon came out today and said he's probably going to lay off 75% of Twitter's workforce and he's being ripped as a "job destroyer".
75% versus 1-5% is pretty different.
Like I said, what have you seen out of Twitter employees that has proven they do anything worth a salary?
Just a prank, bro.
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Post by GORDON »

"73, 74%, tops."

Now that the code's locked in, and it's stable, I don't know why they need more than 15 employees.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

GORDON wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 8:51 am "73, 74%, tops."

Now that the code's locked in, and it's stable, I don't know why they need more than 15 employees.
oh lawd.
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Post by GORDON »

Well, maybe 50. They need to run 3 shifts.
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Bad Economic Predictions

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Bad Economic Predictions

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The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that is adjusted to reflect changing consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the 5.3% estimate. Also, headline inflation rose 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3%, according to a gauge the Federal Reserve uses.
Inflation cooling, economy growing, job losses still super low
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by thibodeaux »

https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/11/06/m ... nd-bubble/
“Passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies — these do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery.” – Michael Burry (Bloomberg)

The S&P 500 index bubble could burst if holders all began to exit on a loss of faith in their system. The index can also stop going up or crash if people simply stopped contributing consistently to hold up prices. In bear markets the price to earnings ratio can seem lower but the market is pricing in decreased earnings in coming months and years. With 78.8% of the S&P 500 companies in the hands of other types of investors and traders it will not be difficult for the index to go much lower.
Great.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by thibodeaux »

lol I should have kept reading:
Michael Burry has exited all his positions which as of March 31st, 2022 had a value of +$200 million. Private jail operator GEO Group was the only stock he held as of the end of the second quarter of 2022. This position brought his portfolio exposure down to only $3.3 million in this one position as he shifts his capital to all cash.
Bearish on stocks in general but bullish on private prisons. It's worse than we imagined.
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Burrys been saying this for years. Yawn. There's enough active money to move markets
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Bad Economic Predictions

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Image
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:11 pm Back to the core of what this thread was supposed to be about: Me making bad economic predictions.

Inflation is here, it's hurting the world, especially on energy, and won't ease up quickly like people hope. Stagflation is not a huge concern, but is a bigger concern than people thing. Growth over the next year will be hurt, and we may see $4 gas at some point.

!RmindMe 9/1/2022
Gas briefly touched $5. Currently $3, at least here.
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Post by GORDON »

Oh, I meant to say, gas jumped sixty cents overnight on Monday, here.
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Post by TheCatt »

GORDON wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 10:33 am Oh, I meant to say, gas jumped sixty cents overnight on Monday, here.
Something weird happening in Ohio? It's not nationwide.
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Post by GORDON »

Not that I know of, but it was all over town, overnight. I saw one single place that had the lower price for the day, but it was up by the next day.
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Post by Leisher »

Citadel Scandal

Trending on Twitter. Apparently a huge deal. If I understand correctly, a billionaire buying and selling stocks, some of which he doesn't own, and possibly fucking our economy. He's blacklisted in China for the same thing.

Catt, I'm certain to be getting something wrong here, please correct me.

Why isn't this, IF it's as big a deal as they say, the top story on every MSM outlet?

Also, why the fuck is it legal to sell stocks you don't own?
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Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:35 am Also, why the fuck is it legal to sell stocks you don't own?
This is called shorting. How else can you bet against stocks? If you think a stock is going to fall, you borrow the stock from someone else, pay interest on it, and sell it with the obligation to buy it back at some point.

I haven't heard any rumblings of Citadel issues (only their record profit last year)
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:46 am This is called shorting. How else can you bet against stocks? If you think a stock is going to fall, you borrow the stock from someone else, pay interest on it, and sell it with the obligation to buy it back at some point.
Call me crazy, but this sounds like a perfect recipe for abuse.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:46 am I haven't heard any rumblings of Citadel issues (only their record profit last year)
Like I said, it's trending on the Twitters. Check it out. I'd like to know more. Do they have a legit gripe or is it just haters?
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:51 am Call me crazy, but this sounds like a perfect recipe for abuse.
You can only borrow so much of what's outstanding (float). If you remember when the GME short squeeze was successful, it was because of people shorting stocks (borrowing + selling what they didn't own), and then getting raped when the price rose. Shorts can lose MORE than they invest. Longs can only lose what they invest.
Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:51 am Like I said, it's trending on the Twitters. Check it out. I'd like to know more. Do they have a legit gripe or is it just haters?
It's definitely worthy on inquiry. Hedge funds have certainly cheated in the past. But I was told we didn't need IRS or SEC officials to police people.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:20 pm It's definitely worthy on inquiry. Hedge funds have certainly cheated in the past. But I was told we didn't need IRS or SEC officials to police people.
I was told Wall St was about raising capital and SS# would never be used to track you, but here we are.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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