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Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:06 pm
by Leisher
So we can only make that offer for 22% of it? Who owns the rest? I'll come up with a different offer.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:30 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:06 pm
So we can only make that offer for 22% of it? Who owns the rest? I'll come up with a different offer.
Funnily enough, the federal government is probably the #1 owner. The Federal Reserve, Social Security (trust fund), etc.
Other holders of the public debt include insurance companies, U.S. savings bonds, private pension funds, and other holders, including individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, banks, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, and other investors.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:38 pm
by Leisher
Maybe that's why they don't care about paying it back?
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:41 pm
by Leisher
Always wanted to watch this site:
Congress trades.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:41 am
by Leisher
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:52 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:41 am
ESG global investments collapsed by $5 trillion in just 2 years.
Context:
The industry’s assets fell to $30.3 trillion from $35 trillion
Drop in US tied to change in methodology for calculating number
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ckout=true
As a result of the US SIF’s methodology change, the report finds a drop from $17trn in reported AUM in the US in 2020 to $8.4trn in 2022.
So... it actually increased by $4 trillion, not collapsed by $5 trillion, net of accounting changes.
https://esgclarity.com/gsia-heralds-mat ... s-30-3trn/
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:45 am
by Leisher
Thank you, I had a hard time buying that number. Your context makes sense, but...
That second article is behind a paywall so I couldn't read it, but "tied to" is not "100% due to", meaning there is still loss here, yes? You'd be very hard pressed to make the case that ESG here hasn't resulted in losses considering Bud Light, Hollywood's 2023 financial results, Target's Gay Pride display, and so on. Blackrock's not letting ESG folks go because they're making the company so much money.
Based on that ESGClarity link/article, I'd say ESG here in the states is not equal to ESG elsewhere in the world. ESG here is pushed as diversity, inclusion, race, sex, gender, etc. while that article almost exclusively discusses sustainability.
I'm down with sustainability. Not so much on ensuring each company's board has an arbitrary number of chicks with dicks as members.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:28 am
by TheCatt
Well it said "as a result of the accounting change," so I attributed the entire $9 trillion drop to that. I just don't have better details. But ESG as a whole, even with that drop, only fell $5 trillion, which is how I came to the underlying growth of $4 trillion.
It's all a little fuzzy, as much accounting is. But, at any rate... it's not a "$5 trillion collapse" which was my main point (regardless of how I feel about ESG). If people want a thing, and invest for such, fine. I generally just like my $$ to grow to more $$.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:01 pm
by TheCatt
Since we were talking about the debt, here's some fun facts:
https://www.crfb.org/papers/riches-rags ... ation-2001
Looking at the policy changes enacted since the beginning of 2001, we find:
Debt is 37 percent of GDP higher due to major tax cuts, 33 percent higher due to major spending increases, and 28 percent higher due to recession responses.
Most debt – 77 percent of GDP – can be attributed to bipartisan legislation.
Absent these tax cuts and spending increases, the debt would be fully paid off.
Comparing spending and revenue as a share of the economy over time, we find:
Rising spending relative to GDP explains about two-thirds of the growth in annual budget deficits since 2001, while declining revenue explains one-third.
Had revenue remained stable as a share of the economy, the debt would be half its size; had primary spending been stable, it would be nearly paid off.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:31 pm
by Leisher
Argentina's new pres gives a "yay capitalism" speech at WEF.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:52 am
by Leisher
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:28 pm
by TheCatt
S&P 500 rallies 1% to all-time high, surpassing record set in 2022
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:38 pm
by Leisher
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2024 1:10 pm
by Leisher
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2024 1:44 pm
by TheCatt
I've been remote since 2018, and would quit if they said work FT in an office.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2024 2:55 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 1:44 pm
I've been remote since 2018, and would quit if they said work FT in an office.
Here it's about two of the four board members on site being micromanagers, IE: control freaks.
Thankfully, my department is not under them. However, the writing is on the wall that we will be within the next 5 years, which is why I'm keen to get out before that happens.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:11 am
by Leisher
Was discussing local commercial real estate the other day with a local business owner looking to move. He said 60% or so of all commercial real estate in the area is vacant, according to his realtor. Instead of lower prices, the building owners have gone to a "three net" plan. (I know I have the name wrong.) Basically, they want new tenants to pay for three things now:
1. Normal rent, which is still higher than normal
2. Some percentage of the mortgage on the building
3. Some percentage of the building maintenance
In the past, this was just known as rent. However, now they're specifically spelling this stuff out, and I don't know why.
It just sounds like these building owners want someone else to pay off their properties rapidly.
I have never understood the "sales are down, so raise prices" strategy.
Lower your prices so that you get something coming in to help you financially. Clearly, this is not a seller's market.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:22 am
by TheCatt
Triple Net Lease:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tr ... se-nnn.asp
I'm surprised there aren't more CRE-related bankruptcies. Supposedly a friend of my daughter's dad was in CRE and went bankrupt and moved to FL and got divorced. But my daughter isn't exactly a reliable narrator.
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:45 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:22 am
I'm surprised there aren't more CRE-related bankruptcies.
I have heard they are coming, but I've heard that for a while.
I wonder if people are stuck holding properties nobody wants to rent or buy or if bigger entities, like Blackrock, have bought up a lot of them?
Post-Corona Economy
Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:01 pm
by TheCatt
I wonder if, despite being empty, the building are still in the middle of 5-10 year leases.