Post-Corona Economy

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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

You mean company X signed a 5-10 year lease and while they left, they're still paying on the original lease? Would the landlord be allowed to lease an office already being leased? I would think that'd be illegal.

But yeah, I get your point. If such things were happening, it would delay the CRE bankruptcies.
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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:32 pm You mean company X signed a 5-10 year lease and while they left, they're still paying on the original lease? Would the landlord be allowed to lease an office already being leased? I would think that'd be illegal.
I was mixing things:

1) Bankruptcies delayed by leases that haven't expired yet.

2) The new leases, I was just posting the name for that lease type. Which seems weird.

But I was saying 60% empty doesn't mean 60% unleased.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:45 pm But I was saying 60% empty doesn't mean 60% unleased.
Ah yes, that is true. We kind of need commercial real estate owners to start feeling a pitch so that things start shifting.

Related: I have been seeing all the apartment buildings in my area have "Now renting" signs out for months and months. That's a big change.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:14 pm Related: I have been seeing all the apartment buildings in my area have "Now renting" signs out for months and months. That's a big change.
Rent has apparently fallen in 2023.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:25 pm Rent has apparently fallen in 2023.
I believe that is correct, although I'm not sure by how much?

I just find the open apartments interesting. They were full for years, but post-covid they're open. Where did the people go? Why can't they fill them?
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:35 pm I believe that is correct, although I'm not sure by how much?
Not by as much as it rose in 2020-2022, certainly. Probably just a very small drop. Cannot recall.
Leisher wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:35 pm I just find the open apartments interesting. They were full for years, but post-covid they're open. Where did the people go? Why can't they fill them?
There was (at least nationwide, I cannot speak to any locality) a pretty big multi-unit housing construction boom after the pandemic. Possible they overbuilt. Also possible people were like "Fuck this" and moved in with friends/random roommates/family to save $$. Especially with the rest of inflation + student loan pause ending.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:23 pm There was (at least nationwide, I cannot speak to any locality) a pretty big multi-unit housing construction boom after the pandemic. Possible they overbuilt. Also possible people were like "Fuck this" and moved in with friends/random roommates/family to save $$. Especially with the rest of inflation + student loan pause ending.
All of this makes sense. I wonder if my area's population has decreased since covid? And people need to get smart like me and be trapped waiting for the housing market to crash. :D
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Post by TheCatt »

GDP grew well, inflation slowing. 3.3% growth in Q4, 2.5% total for 2023, above expectations on both. The "inevitable" 2021 2022 2023 recession didn't come.
On the inflation front, the price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 2.7% on an annual basis, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared with 5.1%.

However, the inflation rates were both much lower in a quarterly basis. Core prices, which the Federal Reserve prefers as a longer-term inflation measure, rose 2% for the period, while the headline rate was 1.7%.

The chain-weighted price index, which accounts for prices as well as changes in consumer behavior, increased 1.5% for the quarter, down sharply from 3.3% in the previous period and below the Wall Street estimate for a 2.5% acceleration.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:22 am The "inevitable" 2021 2022 2023 recession didn't come.
I'm starting to trust financial predictors about as much as I trust NOAA's annual hurricane forecasts.
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Post by Leisher »

You won't believe this, but it turns out self-checkout isn't awesome for consumers.

What a shocking realization! Who knew customers wouldn't want to go to stores, pay more, AND do all the work?
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:22 am You won't believe this, but it turns out self-checkout isn't awesome for consumers.
The only time I like self checkout is when I have like 4 items and there are lines. That's it. Otherwise, fuck you.
Leisher wrote: Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:22 am What a shocking realization! Who knew customers wouldn't want to go to stores, pay more, AND do all the work?
Right?
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Post by GORDON »

The other day there was ANOTHER reddit conversation about shopping carts left in parking lots. It was in my costco reddit so i saw it.

Anyway, they were brainstorming ideas about how to get people to return them. The popular idea was the "it costs a quarter deposit" model. Someone says "That way a customer could make money going around and returning all the loose carts." Everyone thought it was a brilliant, moral idea.

I replied with, "And this is different than them just paying a person to do it in the first place, how?"

I got no answers.

I saw a good line the other day: "Some people want to live their whole lives being left alone. Other people exist simply to not let them."
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Post by Leisher »

No idea where else to put this...

This is really just to get Catt's take.

Saw this today: Ok, she loses it at the end, but I've often done the same thought exercise. I thought money couldn't be taxed twice, yet if you think about it, it's taxed constantly, or perhaps it's more accurate to say "every time it changes hands".

It's bullshit, but not. The logic is completely there for the taxation to take place at each step because someone else is "earning" the money. However, it doesn't make it any less bullshit.

And I guess I really give it the bullshit label because of:
1. How much money they take in annually.
2. How far in debt we are as a country.
3. How terrible our infrastructure is, how poorly our borders are defended, how illegals get far more money spent on them than veterans, how basic services are lacking all over the U.S., etc.

But that's off the topic. If a dollar is constantly taxed every time it changes hands, does it constantly lose value or regain it? If it's regaining it, how? Or is that lost value just offset by other money paying the taxes? Is it all a massive shell game? Why do I feel like I'm asking questions someone who is baked would be asking? :D

This is one of those things where I completely understand it, but it just feels wrong. That make sense?
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Post by GORDON »

Does she go as far as to say "and then it gets taxed one last time when you die and leave it to your kid?"
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Post by Leisher »

She does not, but it's a fair point.

I believe Catt's in favor of the death tax, but I am not.

Just because grandpa was a savvy businessman who built a fortune doesn't mean his kids, grandkids, and so on are going to have the same intelligence. In fact, I'd argue it's far more likely that with each generation the odds go way up that all of grandpa's money will be back in circulation.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:31 pm No idea where else to put this...

This is really just to get Catt's take.
The moron thread. Put this in the moron thread. She said someone gave it to her, that's a gift. No taxes. Yes, we have consumption + profit taxes. But take the $500, sales tax is (depending on state) lets say 5% average. $25. Then, if she's at, say, a grocery store, they made 3% ($15) on that $500 which they pay about 20% ($3) on, for taxes.
Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:31 pm But that's off the topic. If a dollar is constantly taxed every time it changes hands, does it constantly lose value or regain it? If it's regaining it, how? Or is that lost value just offset by other money paying the taxes? Is it all a massive shell game? Why do I feel like I'm asking questions someone who is baked would be asking?
The tax $ goes somewhere. Schools, roads, politicians, etc. It just circulates. It doesn't lose value. Or gain value.
Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:58 pm I believe Catt's in favor of the death tax, but I am not.
Yes, I am. No need for those plantation owners to have such large generational wealth advantages.
Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:58 pm Just because grandpa was a savvy businessman who built a fortune doesn't mean his kids, grandkids, and so on are going to have the same intelligence. In fact, I'd argue it's far more likely that with each generation the odds go way up that all of grandpa's money will be back in circulation.
Most family fortunes are gone within 3 generations, I think. But they may not be "large" fortunes. I cannot recall the data.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

You only pay tax on profits. Not the entire sale amount.

I'm not sure that Best Buy pays tax when buying their inventory. I pay taxes on my materials, and I don't have to charge my customers sales tax. I already paid it. I can file for tax exempt, but then have to charge my customers sales tax on materials.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:20 pm She said someone gave it to her, that's a gift. No taxes.
That's not fair. The amount she's discussing would not be taxed, but there are limits (I believe $17K?) where taxes do kick in. She was probably not aware of that.

The rest of her thinking is not wrong at all. It IS taxed every single time it changes hands.
TheCatt wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:20 pm The tax $ goes somewhere. Schools, roads, politicians, etc.
Lies, lies, truth...
TheCatt wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:20 pm Yes, I am. No need for those plantation owners to have such large generational wealth advantages.
And this is one of the reasons I am not:
TheCatt wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:20 pm Most family fortunes are gone within 3 generations
Pussy, while SUPER powerful, cannot be the sole motivating factor incentivizing people to create wealth.

Also, one of the largest reasons given for reparations is "to help create generational wealth, which is an interesting argument to be made by the same people who push the death tax.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:30 pm That's not fair. The amount she's discussing would not be taxed, but there are limits (I believe $17K?) where taxes do kick in. She was probably not aware of that.
So even that isn't really true. There's an annual per person gift tax exclusion of about $17k (adjusts based on inflation). BUT, you may not be aware :), this goes against your lifetime exclusion, once you exceed the $17k, which is $13 million, before you actually have to pay taxes (this is the estate tax limit). So if you give someone $20k, you lower your $13 million estate tax limit by $3k.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:30 pm Pussy, while SUPER powerful, cannot be the sole motivating factor incentivizing people to create wealth.

Also, one of the largest reasons given for reparations is "to help create generational wealth, which is an interesting argument to be made by the same people who push the death tax.
At the end of the day, America has a lot of pay 2 win elements. And I don't like them, even when I can afford them. So I'm tired of people being born on home plate, already having a home run.
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