Bad Economic Predictions

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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:48 am then why ever broadcast bad news?
Because it gets views and clicks. This is absolutely proven.
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Post by GORDON »

Citi says recession in a few months.

https://www.businessinsider.com/recessi ... iti-2024-2
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Leisher wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:12 pm
GORDON wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:48 am then why ever broadcast bad news?
Because it gets views and clicks. This is absolutely proven.
Not in an election year. Peeps put aside their advertising revenue to help their senile horse win the race against Trump.
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GORDON wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:17 pm
Leisher wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:12 pm
GORDON wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:48 am then why ever broadcast bad news?
Because it gets views and clicks. This is absolutely proven.
Not in an election year. Peeps put aside their advertising revenue to help their senile horse win the race against Trump.
While certain MSM outlets, by their own admission, tried their damnedest to present Biden in a good light, the negative stories about other things still ran AND they also ran tons of negative Trump stories. So again, bad news sells, good news doesn't.

What's interesting right now is that neither nomination is "official". So you're seeing negative stories on both right now because there are Ds who want Biden to drop out of the race. They see the polls showing a Trump victory, they see the polls about people being unhappy with the country (rightfully so), and to a MUCH lesser extent they're actually concerned about Biden's age. There's also still hope by the most optimistic that somehow Trump will exit the race.

That's why Nikki Haley is still running and being financed despite it looking like she'll lose to Trump by 30 points in her home state.
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Post by Leisher »

Catt, is the conclusion they're making logically sound? (Notice I didn't say "correct".)

The chart IS legit, which is actually a bit shocking. Unless it's just a measure of those available to work, IE: not currently employed, not retired, able to work, etc.?

Image

My follow up would be: "How in the hell does one create jobs for native born people?"
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Post by TheCatt »

GORDON wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:16 pm Citi says recession in a few months.

https://www.businessinsider.com/recessi ... iti-2024-2
This is a much better article than the failed CEO one. I still disagree, but it's certainly possible.
Leisher wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:54 pm Catt, is the conclusion they're making logically sound? (Notice I didn't say "correct".)

The chart IS legit, which is actually a bit shocking. Unless it's just a measure of those available to work, IE: not currently employed, not retired, able to work, etc.?
I feel like better data would have some relative measure of available working population. Native born people tend to be OLDER than foreign-born people, and our population would be shrinking (last I checked) without immigration (legal or otherwise). Absolute #s are usually bad stats.
Leisher wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:54 pm My follow up would be: "How in the hell does one create jobs for native born people?"
Tell them to get skills that people want?
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:10 pm Tell them to get skills that people want?
Catt says to get in shape and start an OnlyFans! :D

Uh, color me skeptical on this one, and that's saying something considering I am firmly in the "prices are way too high for most things" camp. There are a lot of variables here that this person doesn't go into, like: Did the area around those apartments suddenly become very desired or a hot spot? Are you a shitty lawyer?
Image
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:08 pm Uh, color me skeptical on this one, and that's saying something considering I am firmly in the "prices are way too high for most things" camp. There are a lot of variables here that this person doesn't go into, like: Did the area around those apartments suddenly become very desired or a hot spot? Are you a shitty lawyer?
I think housing has gone up above inflation, sure. But yeah, there's also a lot of variables. Was the place gentrified? Did the city do a waterfront rebuilding project?

Also... that last one. "Are you a shitty lawyer" is my favorite. As I was wondering the same.
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I remember years ago walking through London and seeing salaries that (yes, converting from lbs to usd) were just incredibly low. Lower than my mid-rent city.
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FTC votes to ban non-compete agreements, 3-2 on party lines: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/ftc ... _permalink
The rule prohibits companies from enforcing existing noncompete agreements on anyone other than senior executives. It also bans employers from imposing new noncompete contracts on senior executives in the future.

The rule restores rights to Americans that corporations have taken by imposing noncompete clauses in the workplace, FTC Chair Lina Khan said Tuesday. “Robbing people of their economic liberty also robs them of all sorts of other freedoms,” she said.
There will be lawsuits about this soon. I generally agree, but I'd probably include a few more people.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Having dealt with these, some are stupid, and unenforceable. Others are definitely needed and should be upheld.

Non compete that says you can't get another job in the same sector is stupid. You have skills x and y. Someone saying you can't get another job using skills x and y is stupid. I guess you have to work at Walmart now since all of your skills are null?

Non compete that says you can't approach our customers is not stupid and should be enforced. They typically only last a year and doesn't prevent you from finding a new job and doing that job.

Non compete that says "if we send this work to you, you won't go behind our back and cut us out of future work" is not stupid and should be enforced. If we can agree ahead of time you aren't an asshole that's going to steal my customer, then we can work together. If not, I'll find someone else. If they agree to not be assholes, they should be bound to that agreement.

I didn't read either article so I don't know which version they are talking about.
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Cakedaddy wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 4:21 pm Non compete that says you can't approach our customers is not stupid and should be enforced. They typically only last a year and doesn't prevent you from finding a new job and doing that job.
I wasn't sure if this covered that, since that would generally be considered a non solicitation agreement.
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I feel like elimination of non-competes might apply a little pressure to companies to treat their people better so they're less tempted to hang out their own shingle and steal your customers.
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I agree with Cake. Preventing someone from working with their skill set is absolutely horseshit and unethical. However, simply asking them to not call upon your customers for X amount of time is fine, imho.
GORDON wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2024 4:28 pm I feel like elimination of non-competes might apply a little pressure to companies to treat their people better so they're less tempted to hang out their own shingle and steal your customers.
I also agree with this.

In a weird coincidence, I had a sales rep from a vendor reach out to me today to say she's leaving, enjoyed working with me, etc. She hinted around that if someone called her new employer, who she did not name, that'd be fine, but they couldn't ask for her.
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Post by TheCatt »

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1- ... -rate.html

Nothing good there. Gdp growth at 1.6% annualized, inflation up to 3.7% annualized for last month.

Markets sad
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Post by Leisher »

I was discussing the economy with the Director of Finance this morning. His car needs service and he knows it's going to cost a ton. He was lamenting how things used to be built to last. We discussed our mutual belief that consumers do not wield the power they are supposed to in this Capitalist country. That's when it dawned on me that Capitalism is absolutely going to correct this problem.

Companies are going to begin demanding their engineers begin designing units built to last, using parts built to last.

Why would they do that you might ask?

Two reasons:
1. Consumer demand
2. Global warming

People want better, more reliable products and we need to stop filling landfills.

"But why would they give up profits in this Wall St driven economy? That makes no sense!"

Allow me to introduce you to AaaS (Appliances as a Service).

We will no longer own our appliances, TVs, cars, etc. Instead, you'll pay a subscription fee that covers the device and service. Companies won't want to lose money on service, thus they'll build them to last.

HP has already dipped their foot into this water with PaaS (Printing as a Service).

It's easily justified and consumers can't do shit about it. It's coming.
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Post by GORDON »

Tucker tried to break into the automotive insdustry when it was well-established, with a better product. The automakers were dishonest and killed him.

Musk is doing something with Tesla, but his cars are arguably the worst-built on the road. That company is surviving with an EV model that may or may not pan out, with as much across-the-board resistance it gets.

I don't think the unreliability thing is going to get fixed. Cars have, what, nearly doubled in price over the last 10 years? Cheap fenders are now full of traffic radars and bullshit that makes a dented quarter panel a $8k fix? People keep buying them even with inflated cost and shitty craftsmanship?

The automakers have to reason to be better, any more than the airlines do. People keep purchasing their shitty products.
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Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:02 pm I don't think the unreliability thing is going to get fixed.
When the corporations are picking up that tab and not the consumers, it's going to get fixed immediately.
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Post by GORDON »

I think they build to last the 3-year warranty. Anything else doesn't make sense for them. Planned obsolescence as a marketing strategy is a well documented thing.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:37 am discussing the economy with the Director of Finance this morning. His car needs service and he knows it's going to cost a ton. He was lamenting how things used to be buil
this is such fucking bullshit. Complete fucking bullshit. But people believe it.
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