Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:40 am

We're getting some super choppy news.

Apple: Missed revenue (84M vs 87-92 predicted) due to slow sales in China (they are saying), down 9-10%
Jobs: December highest jobs added in all of 2018
ISM Manufacturing Index fell, but still in expansion: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/ism-man ... ember.html
New orders fell to 51.1 (also still in expansion, but down from 60 in November)
Delta airline announced lower revenue targets, all airline stocks down.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:38 pm

The last couple of months have been kind of weird.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:32 pm

TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post Markets down again.

I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.

AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.

Down even further with AMZN touching 1315; AAPL down to 148; DOW down 18.5% (22,000).

And back to 1500 1 week later. That's some awesome volatility.

Two weeks after hitting 1315, it's 1633, up 25%.

Hope everyone bought :P
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:34 am

Was listening to some stats from the '09 crash. Comparing our recovery to the rest of the world's (particularly China's) is kind of jarring. Really gives some weight to the notion that the quantitative easing created a market bubble.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Cakedaddy » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:25 pm

This is somewhat economy stuff:

There was no skill gap, because companies have lowered their expectations given the lack of choices now.

https://www.vox.com/2019/1/7/18166951/s ... g-ballance

When unemployment was high, job requirements went up. When it went down, companies lowered their expectations. In summary, greedy companies should have been training people for the jobs instead of waiting for the government to do it. But there was no skill gap.

Fucking entitled millennials. . .

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:23 am

Supply + Demand, baby.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Leisher » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:28 am


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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:16 pm

I think the last time we didn't have a trade deficit was after the '08 crash when no one was buying anything.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:02 pm

Vince wrote:Source of the post I think the last time we didn't have a trade deficit was after the '08 crash when no one was buying anything.

Last time was actually 1975.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:52 pm

TheCatt wrote:Last time was actually 1975.

Amid another bad downturn. Weren't we close after the '08-'09 crash?

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:56 pm

Vince wrote:Source of the post
TheCatt wrote:Last time was actually 1975.

Amid another bad downturn. Weren't we close after the '08-'09 crash?

I guess it's all relative.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported recently that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell from $695.9 billion in 2008 to $380.7 billion in 2009, a decline of $315.3 billion (45.3%).

Was back up to $500bn by 2010.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:15 am

Yeah, I knew we shot back up rather quickly. I've never been to worried about it really. Service is the future of jobs rather than manufacturing, I suspect.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Leisher » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:47 pm

Vince wrote:Source of the post Service is the future of jobs rather than manufacturing


Already is, and that's not awesome.

Huge differences in pay and benefits between those two job types.

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Postby Vince » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:53 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post
Vince wrote:Source of the post Service is the future of jobs rather than manufacturing


Already is, and that's not awesome.

Huge differences in pay and benefits between those two job types.

I've been thinking about manufacturing here in the US lately, and I wonder how much of our golden age of manufacturing was unsustainable from the get-go? We really got rolling during WWII and how much global competition did we have for the next 20 years? Every other industrial nation had the crap bombed out of them for the last 5 years or so. Add to that the rapidly expanding customer base we had coming out of the war and manufacturing was sitting pretty there for a bit. I think the massive momentum carried us for another 15-20 years after that. So late 70's to early 80's things just started to settle in to normal world distribution in a world no longer threatened with the massive scale disruption of world wars. We had no where to go but down from there. Even so, we far outpace any other country for our size, I think. We're 2nd in the world just behind China in dollars on manufacturing.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Leisher » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:19 am

Good speculation.

I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.

The U.S. would be tough to pull off without penalizing companies, but could be done.

The Mexico route would hurt China and strengthen Mexico. It would also do more to stop illegal immigration than any wall.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:31 am

Vince wrote:Source of the post So late 70's to early 80's things just started to settle in to normal world distribution in a world no longer threatened with the massive scale disruption of world wars. We had no where to go but down from there

There's a bunch of papers from the 80s and 90s on this idea (probably even the 00s, but I haven't studied economics lately). That most of post WW2 American exceptionalism was due to everyone else trying to rebuild and/or having lost a bunch of people.

Vince wrote:Source of the post Even so, we far outpace any other country for our size, I think.

Well, there are no countries our size, really, for 1st world countries. You'd have to add up most of Europe to be our equal.

In terms of per capital GDP, we're around 11th. Behind Ireland/Norway/Switzerland, etc, but ahead of Germany, UK, Sweden, etc.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:47 am

Leisher wrote:Source of the post Good speculation.

I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.

The U.S. would be tough to pull off without penalizing companies, but could be done.

The Mexico route would hurt China and strengthen Mexico. It would also do more to stop illegal immigration than any wall.

Not pertaining to Trump's re-election, but the future in general... I don't think it will matter where things are being physically produced within the next 30 years because there will be almost no actual jobs in the mass manufacturing of things. I think we're seeing a transitional period as we did 150 years ago when 80-90% of the population were farmers.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby GORDON » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:44 am

Leisher wrote:Source of the post Good speculation.

I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.


Like.... with sanctions to even out the trade imbalance? ;-)
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Postby Leisher » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:48 pm

GORDON wrote:Source of the post Like.... with sanctions to even out the trade imbalance?


Essentially, yes.

Heavily tax U.S. corporations to force them to move production back home or to Mexico.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:54 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post Heavily tax U.S. corporations to force them to move production back home or to Mexico.

Yeah, that's a terrible idea.

Trump's right about an equal playing field, though.
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