Bad Economic Predictions

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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Leisher » Tue May 29, 2018 7:01 pm



Don't they need a government to do anything?

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Tue May 29, 2018 7:25 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post


Don't they need a government to do anything?

Also a problem.

10 yr closed at 2.77%... wow.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu May 31, 2018 9:49 am

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Postby Leisher » Thu May 31, 2018 11:52 am

Yay more tariffs! *sigh*

I really hope there's a master plan at work.

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Postby TheCatt » Thu May 31, 2018 12:08 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post Yay more tariffs! *sigh*

I really hope there's a master plan at work.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:40 am

Decently strong economic news
223k jobs added; 3.8% unemployment (lowest since 1969); wages up 2.7%. This is all pretty inflationary news (10 year up 0.08 to 2.90% on the news). If only we weren't looking at a trade war...
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Postby GORDON » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:46 am

When W's unemployment numbers were low, everyone said, "Yeah people have jobs, but they are bad jobs." Plus his oil crony buddies were keeping gas costs high on purpose.

When Obama's unemployment numbers were high, and people were getting fucked on insurance, and hours were getting cut to bypass the rules of Obamacare, he was a Golden God and Boyfriend, all in one. Besides, the economy is W's fault.

Now Trump's unemployment numbers are low, and this is doom and gloom, and we're all going to die. THIS IS NOT NORMAL.
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Postby TheCatt » Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:51 pm

To be fair, the % of the people employed is low/bad (blue line left axis below):
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:07 pm

Ben Bernanke joins the 2020 recession crowd

If their right, I expect lots of 2020 sight jokes.
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Postby thibodeaux » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:05 pm

Naturally Bernanke, a member of the global elite, wants a US recession in 2020. He hates Trump.

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Postby Vince » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:51 am

thibodeaux wrote:Source of the post Naturally Bernanke, a member of the global elite, wants a US recession in 2020. He hates Trump.

I'm not hoping for one, but we're due for something. I suspect before 2020 though.

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Postby TheCatt » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:24 am

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Postby Leisher » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:34 pm

That sounds a LOT like the ones I posted about earlier this morning in the Trump thread... :D

But yeah, fucking stupid. Again, really hoping there's some master, long term plan at work. (Commence your laughing.)

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Postby thibodeaux » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:34 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html
NYT article about the yield curve.
On Thursday, the gap between two-year and 10-year United States Treasury notes was roughly 0.34 percentage points. It was last at these levels in 2007 when the United States economy was heading into what was arguably the worst recession in almost 80 years.

As scary as references to the financial crisis sound, flattening alone does not mean that the United States is doomed to slip into another recession. But if it keeps moving in this direction, eventually long-term interest rates will fall below short-term rates.

When that happens, the yield curve has “inverted.” An inversion is seen as “a powerful signal of recessions,” as the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, said this year, and that’s what everyone is watching for.

Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...


I'll leave aside the obvious Top Gun references. This is worrisome, yet given that we know it's coming, how do we profit from it? Or at least, not lose our shirts? Short the S&P?

Catt, wat do?

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Postby GORDON » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:36 pm

SInce it's still Trump's first term we can still blame it all on Obama, right? Political points are the important thing.
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Postby thibodeaux » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:38 pm

More from the article:
An important caveat to the predictive power of the yield curve is that it can’t predict precisely when a recession will begin. In the past the recession has come in as little as six months, or as long as two years, after the inversion, the San Francisco Fed’s researchers note.

I guess that it won't be practical to be short the market, since the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. But still, there must be some general strategy.

We actually sold a bunch of stocks toward the end of last year and bought land. There's deer and a spring, so fuck you bitches if society goes to hell, at least.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby GORDON » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:44 pm

Give me GPS coordinates so Vince and I can invade and annex, after the fall.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:46 pm

thibodeaux wrote:Source of the post I'll leave aside the obvious Top Gun references. This is worrisome, yet given that we know it's coming, how do we profit from it? Or at least, not lose our shirts? Short the S&P?

Catt, wat do?

I addressed this beforehand.

The signal is distorted, so I'd be hesitant to read too much in to it this time around, at least as in regards to as a historical indicator. The main issue this time would be fear from a massive trade war, but the trade war is the signal, the yield would just be reacting.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby thibodeaux » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:49 pm

"This time is different?" Hm. Ok.

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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Cakedaddy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:47 pm

Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...


But does every inverted curve lead to a recession? If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign? Did the curve recover, then recession? Two years of invert? Has there ever been an invert, recover, then invert again before a recession hit?


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