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Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:40 am
by Leisher
Was in the shower this morning prepping to head into work and got a call that someone in our plant is showing symptoms. We are completely shut down now.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:56 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote: Was in the shower this morning prepping to head into work and got a call that someone in our plant is showing symptoms. We are completely shut down now.
yyyyaaaaayyyyyyyy
Italy seems to have flattened out; Spain still growing, US growing but more slowly. The data is crap due to lack of testing though.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:09 am
by TheCatt
Possible bad news for hydroxychloroquine
A small trial from China may already throw into question whether a treatment touted as a way to save people with severe covid-19 can really work. It found no evidence that the existing drug hydroxychloroquine alone was more effective for patients hospitalized with the novel coronavirus than standard care. However, the results aren’t any more definitive than the earlier research that suggested the drug can work.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:12 am
by TheCatt
This one took me a while to get. Honestly, quarantine for us has been pretty uneventful. The kids miss getting out to see their friends + go to the rock climbing gym, but we're taking walks together, playing more games together, crafts, etc.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:58 am
by Troy
TheCatt wrote:
This one took me a while to get. Honestly, quarantine for us has been pretty uneventful. The kids miss getting out to see their friends + go to the rock climbing gym, but we're taking walks together, playing more games together, crafts, etc.
Our couple friends with young kids are having a rough, very rough, time of it. Kids seem hard.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:03 am
by TheCatt
Troy wrote: Our couple friends with young kids are having a rough, very rough, time of it. Kids seem hard.
If my kids were under 5, I probably would have killed myself by now. But above that age? Much more fun.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:59 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote: If my kids were under 5, I probably would have killed myself by now. But above that age? Much more fun.
This.
I've spent an hour in the car with my oldest every day as she needs 50 hours towards her license. It's been the best hour of my day. The other two have been playing together, helping out around the house, etc.
Kids are awesome.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:07 am
by Leisher
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:08 am
by GORDON
Hiked 4 miles with my kid the other day, we shot the shit the entire time.
I hope it's stuff like that he remembers.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:00 pm
by Leisher
You know who is doing well because of the cornoavirus?
Every tech related company and pets.
Pets aren't sitting in empty houses, so win for them.
Tech companies, particularly retail, are selling out of shit for people to work remotely. The Best Buy closest to my house sold out of laptops and Surface Books, so people started making a run on iPads. Printers also sold out. Ink is at a premium.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:26 pm
by TheCatt
How is your state doing on testing?
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:49 pm
by Troy
Really think that chart is useless at current testing numbers and availability.
Y axis with deaths related to COVID-19 or ICU % occupied would be better.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:58 pm
by Troy
Think we may lead the world in confirmed cases in next few hours. Good that we are getting better at testing I suppose...
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:06 pm
by TheCatt
Troy wrote: Think we may lead the world in confirmed cases in next few hours. Good that we are getting better at testing I suppose...
USA! USA! USA!
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:09 pm
by TheCatt
Even with this added capacity, the CDC anticipates that the demand for testing will continue to outpace supply. So the CDC has put out new guidance on criteria for testing, and NC has adopted that new criteria.
The short version is this, direct from DHHS: "In general, patients with mild illness (defined as fever and cough without shortness of breath or difficulty breathing) do not need testing."
So the old qualification was: fever + negative flu test + cough OR shortness of breath.
The new qualification is: fever + negative flu test + cough AND shortness of breath (or other serious symptom).
We still suck at testing.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:13 pm
by GORDON
Wild-ass guesses for under-reporting?
My guess is 10x. For every confirmed case, at least 10 have come and gone. My super-logic comes from the old adage, "For every cockroach you see, there are ten you don't."
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:18 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote: Wild-ass guesses for under-reporting?
My guess is 10x. For every confirmed case, at least 10 have come and gone. My super-logic comes from the old adage, "For every cockroach you see, there are ten you don't."
I would guess a minimum of 2x, (95% confidence) maximum of 10x, and guesstimate of 5-7x based on our current stats.
Some of the stuff I've been reading shows a likely fatality rate in the 0.25% range, ASSUMING proper medical care. So if we run out of ventilators, if populations are less healthy, etc, etc, then the rate will be higher. The largest issue there (aside from American health) is that these patients need to be on ventilators for ~2 week, so lack of proper medical care could be a significant concern.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm
by Cakedaddy
10x seems way high to me. That means, what, 90% get it, get over it, and didn't know it? Or get it, get over it, and wonder if it was COVID-19? Ya, my wild-ass guess disagrees. I have no doubt that the number of infected are far more than what's reported. That's a given. I guess I would agree more with Catt's numbers. But I'd narrow it down to 5x because even 7x seems high.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm
by GORDON
I think shitloads of people will be exposed, carry, and never show more than mild symptoms. They wont go to the hospital, and wont be confirmed.
I stand by my 10x WAG, but don't know if we'll ever have that number confirmed.
Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:30 pm
by Leisher
U.S. now has more cases than anywhere.
We're #1!!!!
Also, Michigan is becoming the latest hotspot.