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TheCatt wrote: ↑Wed Jul 02, 2025 8:32 pm Private jobs down for first time in a long time.

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says

Weird.

I saw this buried in my YouTube feed. It's a bit old, I was cleaning out some shit. Made me remember your post. Just wanted to get clarity. Did this really happen? What'd they do, pad the jobs report with BS, which we've seen previous admins do? Were the July 2nd numbers not final or something?

Or they cherry picked the worst stat out of the larger group of stats that make up the job number.

Private sector down by 33k, but manufacturing and white collar up by 177k, or something.

ADP Private sector report was down 33k, and the government report was up 147k. So, first, by definition, the private sector job report excludes... wait for it... government jobs. Half of the 147k was public sector jobs. So there's still a discrepancy of about 100k, but there always is some difference between the reports. These are preliminary numbers that will be revised in the coming months as more data comes in.

The end of 2024 job growth was pretty great (2nd half of 2024), and 2025 has been very weak.

The unemployment rate going down was reflective of people opting out of the job market, not job growth. But again, 4.2% to 4.1% is largely noise.

The ADP trend is somewhat alarming.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 9:36 am ADP Private sector report was down 33k, and the government report was up 147k. So, first, by definition, the private sector job report excludes... wait for it... government jobs. Half of the 147k was public sector jobs.

So the same numbers game that every administration does, but people only feign concern about when it's not their favorite letter in charge.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 9:36 am The ADP trend is somewhat alarming.

Not to those of us who have been saying for years that there's only one direction the number of available jobs can go in a market where corporations are punished if they don't make record profits every quarter.

This system combined with the looming AIpocalypse is going to lead to interesting times.

Leisher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 2:48 pm Not to those of us who have been saying for years that there's only one direction the number of available jobs can go in a market where corporations are punished if they don't make record profits every quarter.

Individual companies try to be more efficient, but then new companies start.

Leisher wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 2:48 pm looming AIpocalypse

wut?

TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 3:42 pm Individual companies try to be more efficient, but then new companies start.

Those new companies aren't hiring the tens of thousands of folks who get laid off and certainly not at the same salaries, but I don't disagree with what you're saying.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 18, 2025 3:42 pmAIpocalypse

Ai - pocalyse. Reads better with the lower case i. It's the theory that AI is going to take a lot more jobs than what people think.

Leisher wrote: ↑Sat Jul 19, 2025 12:19 amAi - pocalyse.

Yeah, didn't see that as an i/I at all, gotcha.

It may, but I still think that's at least 5 years away to be significant.

what da faq?

Genuinely, Obama set the bar high for modern presidents. Trump and Biden both mumble and make shit up. W was a Texan (I said what I said). Clinton had the drawl.

I think you have to go back to Reagan for another good orator.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:29 pm what da faq?

Tweet didn't show for me at first. Saw you had a link and went to it, but it's been deleted by the creator.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Jul 28, 2025 3:15 pm Tweet didn't show for me at first. Saw you had a link and went to it, but it's been deleted by the creator.

Sleeping with 14 year olds wasn't considered bad until the 90s, was, I think the post. And I was like, uh, is this France? Cuz even France frowned on that by then, I think. She went on this whole diatribe about how 14 years olds were RESPONSIBLE for sleeping with 40 year old men and shit, and everyone said it was OK, etc.

I dunno, it was... insane.

"She"? WTF?

It's not only insane, it's abhorrent. Stop trying to justify sexualizing children. Maybe in the 1500s 30 year olds married 14 year olds, but that's because we didn't know any better. While psychology still has zero proven scientific laws, we do know that childhood trauma fucks people up for life. And guess what? Sexual experiences while young are traumatic.

I could get into a whole "maybe a lot of things we ok at 18 should be at 25" debate, but this isn't the thread for that.

Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Jul 29, 2025 9:47 am"She"? WTF?

Azalea Banks.

Had to google her. I still don't know who she is.

Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Jul 29, 2025 11:27 am Consumer confidence up 2 points.

If only the economy were so confident.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8 (2016=100), after no change in May (revised upward from –0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 29, 2025 1:26 pm If only the economy were so confident.

Meh, it's something. I report good and bad.

Actual CNN headline: The US economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter

Got to give credit where it's due...plus, I'm trolling Catt just a little

Good news ends there though. In other Trump news...
-I see his admin is being blamed for blocking legislation to prevent Congresspeople from trading stocks. This is obviously a political stunt considering EVERY FUCKING MEMBER of Congress keeps voting against such bills, but the optics still suck for him.
-He is getting shredded all over the place for his ever shifting stance on Epstein. I know Maxwell's folks say he was not a client, but his latest revelation today about Epstein having pulled some girls from Mar-a-logo makes me wonder if he's in the files for something else...

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Jul 30, 2025 10:09 am Got to give credit where it's due...plus, I'm trolling Catt just a little

Lol.

This number needs to be averaged together with Q1, so (-0.5+3.0)/2 = 1.25%, which is pathetic. Why? Cuz imports were front-loaded into Q1 to avoid tarffis, so Q1 was depressed by that activity, where Q2 is being elevated by the lower levels of imports stockpiled from Q1.

Trump is bringing back the Presidential Physical Fitness test.

This I actually agree with as we're a country of fat fucks. Although, I look forward to all the liberal white women complaining about how it discriminates against minorities.