NCAA

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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

Bob Stoops teabags the SEC...with facts to back up his statements.
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Post by TheCatt »

I'm finding it hard to believe OSU is only 3 point favorites tonight. I'm guessing OSU by 10.
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Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote:I'm finding it hard to believe OSU is only 3 point favorites tonight. I'm guessing OSU by 10.
Well... guess it's a good thing I don't bet.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote:
TheCatt wrote:I'm finding it hard to believe OSU is only 3 point favorites tonight. I'm guessing OSU by 10.
Well... guess it's a good thing I don't bet.
Never saw your comments. I would've called you insane. Bucks defense is just terrible. Unfortunately, nobody who interviewed our defensive coordinator hired him away.

Did you watch the Bucks and MSU tonight? Amazing game. Down 17 with 7 to go, they climbed back for OT. Actually missed a contested layup in regulation to win it. Lost in OT by 4, but the last bucket came off a foul after a missed 3. A loss, but a good loss.

Also, since we haven't discussed it, fuck the SEC! I'm not a FSU fan, but I was thrilled to see them end the run. Great game too. Or, I should say, a great second half.
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Post by TheCatt »

FSU!

No, didn't see the game last night, didn't realize MSU/OSU were even playing until I was going to bed, which was still the first half. Sorry I missed it now.

As for OSU/Clemson... I guess I was too familiar with Clemson, especially having seen the beatdown they received from FSU. Just didn't think they could hang with a real team.




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Post by TheCatt »

Auburn was stealing play calls in 1st half.

Auburn has a former FSU assistant on their team. Oooops, FSU.
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Post by Leisher »

Just didn't think they could hang with a real team.


OSU was beaten all year by their defense. They just can't stop anyone, and the blame lies in the coaching. Lots of talent, but the wrong defenses are being called, they're not focusing on fundamentals (like wrapping), and they're not aggressive.

I don't understand why Luke Fickel was kept after he failed as the head coach, nor why he's making so much money. He interviewed a few places after the season and nobody hired him.

He is a great recruiter though...

Auburn was stealing play calls in 1st half.


Bill Belichek would be proud.
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Post by Leisher »

Someone's doing what OSU got in trouble for...

But it's Alabama and the SEC, so I'm sure nothing will come of it.

Funny how the "worldwide leader in sports", who is also in bed with the SEC and launching an all SEC channel doesn't seem to be covering this story. I'm sure it's just an oversight.

By the way, this is the second time this scandal has occurred. The first time was when OSU was facing the same scandal and got punished for it.

Weird how it didn't warrant MSM coverage back then, huh?

The Big 5 conferences move closer to being labeled semi-pro teams.
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by TPRJones »

No notes about how to sign up yet?

Is it so rare to have a perfect bracket, then?
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Post by TheCatt »

Yeah, I'd like to know what discount/odds they used on the $1billion for the actual payment. I'm guessing somewhere in the 0-1%
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Post by Leisher »

162 billion to 1

I think the lottery gives better odds.

Did anyone notice the second tier prizes that are guaranteed? Funny how they're all linked to Buffet and Gilbert's businesses...

It's like they're giving themselves prizes.
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Post by TheCatt »

162 billion to 1? How did they come up with those odds?
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Post by TPRJones »

How deep are the brackets?

162 billion to 1 is somewhere between 2^8 and 2^9. If the brackets are 8 levels deep that would almost account for that number, plus some other variation I don't know about for the rest of it.
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Post by TheCatt »

68 teams, basically 6 levels deep with a partial level at the beginning, 67 games.

Uh, 2^8 = 256. 2^9 = 512.
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Post by Malcolm »

Yeah. That seems off. 8*4 games in round 1, then 4*4 games 2*4 games, 4 games, 2 games, 1 championship. 32+16+8+4+2+1 = 63. Winning 63 random coin tosses in a row is about 1.08 x 10^-19. 1 in 162 billion would be 1.62 x 10^-11.

EDIT: Damnit, I'm off a bit on the number of teams, was assuming a perfect tree. Still, how are they calculating this?




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Post by Malcolm »

Thought: are they using the rankings as weights or is it 50/50 chance of winning for each team for every game?
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Post by TPRJones »

Okay, let's work through this. Using 50/50 per game, because I got no idea about odds.

68 teams up front means 34 games with a possibility of 2^34 outcomes, so that's 17 billion right there. Multiply that by round 2 which has 2^17 outcomes and clearly I've already gone off the rails.

Looking up a chart it looks like there's only 64 teams going into the real tournament. So I presume there's an initial round to knock out the four worst? Taking out the four worst will have 68*67*66*65 combinations, which is about 19.5 million combinations. Now on to round 2 with 64 teams means 2^32 games or 4.3 billion combinations ... and again that's way too high already.

Hell, fuck if I know. The overall odds they give seems orders of orders of magnitude too small to me. I would think it should be (68*67*66*65 )*(2^32)*(2^16)*(2^8)*(2^4)*(2^2)*(2) but that's not 162 billion.
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Post by TheCatt »

It's 67 games. 2^67... like 10^20 or something.

But no idea how they got to 168 billion. But the initial rounds should be weighted. The first round has 4 games, each of which is probably pretty close to 50/50. But then the first real round has several games that are basically 100% (16v1).

They clearly feel the odds suck. But I also have no idea how you can calculate those odds, as there are so many permutations.
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Post by TPRJones »

It's 67 games. 2^67... like 10^20 or something.

That doesn't seem right to me. If it were a single round of 67 games among 134 teams that would be right, but this has progressive rounds. The teams available in round 3 depend on the results of round 2, so you have to do the odds of each round and then multiply them together. Don't you?
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