Hey, check out this YouTube video! - megathread

Post by **TPRJones** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:45 pm

I bought gas from that guy a few weeks ago.

Post by **Leisher** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:31 pm

Post by **Leisher** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:13 am

Post by **GORDON** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:15 am

That song was one on my first memories of the Beastie Boys, not counting my sister loving "License to Ill" in like 1986 or whatever. They used to play the real video a lot on the USS Tortuga in between movies.

Post by **TPRJones** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:58 pm

Post by **GORDON** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:03 pm

I sometimes wonder what the economy is going to become when 100% of labor can be done by machines. I don't think we are too far off.

Post by **TheCatt** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:31 pm

Soylent Green.

Post by **TPRJones** » Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:38 pm

The Post-Labor economy is almost impossible to predict. It's going to get really bad. Not as bad as 1939 because there will still be plenty of stuff to be had, it's just the primary means of stuff distribution that will be broken. I expect massive deflation and panicked economists. Fortunately the rich guys that own the means of production need consumers to have income to buy their stuff, and once they start to feel the economy collapsing under them then the politicians will get off their asses and figure something out.

But the days of trading time for dollars being the main way people get money are coming to an end. And soon. Probably within 20 years.

Edited By TPRJones on 1407987652

Post by **GORDON** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:04 am

I can see 20, I was guessing 50.

Post by **Vince** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 6:30 am

I think it'll be closer to 20 years than 50. Before we hit the tipping point on it, anyway. You're probably not going to hit the 100% mark. Once you get to 30 or 40 % of the labor force being unemployed, there's going to be something happen. Don't know what, but something will happen.

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 7:54 am

I'm leaning towards 50, before 20.

For instance, % of cars that are self-driving in 2030. Who wants to make a bet for that? I'm guessing it's small. Maybe 5%.

I think we're already starting to see some of the issues. If you look at social security disability payments, they have been skyrocketing in the past decade due to people who are "functionally" disabled. They are not actually disabled, but basically cannot find jobs in today's economy, already.

Post by **TPRJones** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:35 am

The 20 years is my guess for about when there will be more robots doing the physical work than people. For the creative, administrative, and professional stuff 50 seems more likely. In between those milestones is when I expect things to get bad and then get better.

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:46 am

Good thing I am a software engineer, right? Right? RIGHT? *panic*

Post by **TPRJones** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:52 am

At least you can rest comfortably in the knowledge that your bosses will probably be let go before you are.

Post by **GORDON** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:01 pm

TPRJones wrote:The 20 years is my guess for about when there will be more robots doing the physical work than people. For the creative, administrative, and professional stuff 50 seems more likely. In between those milestones is when I expect things to get bad and then get better.

See, my guess is exactly the opposite.

Digging a ditch is hard for a machine. Depth, drainage, slope, shoring up walls, obstructions.... a hundred little decisions that humans don't even think about but still account for. A machine would pretty much require a human still babysitting and making decisions.... pretty much exactly what we have now with a human running a ditch digger.

Most business programs I wrote and was exposed to are the same simple logic bullshit arranged in different ways. I think it would be much easier for AI to write a new program for the accounting department than to dig a ditch, maintain an HVAC system, or build a house.

Shit... an AI would write the accounting program in 1 second, compile it for 5, and be showing it to the user who requested it before they took a sip of their coffee after entering the parameters asking, "Is this what you wanted?" and immediately providing edits and tweaks. I think the typical programmer is fucked.

Edited By GORDON on 1408032209

Post by **Vince** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:47 pm

I think it'd be the opposite as well. In Gordo's example, you would have one AI replacing dozens, or hundreds of programmers. Each programmer costing... what? $60k-$120k depending on where they're at?

You'd need one automated ditch digging system for each ditch digging team and could get a ditch dug in maybe 1/3 of the time if you're really lucky. I'm guessing 1/2 the time would be more realistic (union's not withstanding) And you'll still need a real person monitoring the operation. And the system for automated ditch digging would be WAY more expensive than the programming AI. And a bigger payoff on the back end for all the highly paid programmers you get to lay off.

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:28 pm

What programmer is going to program the machines to program? I mean... common sense people

Post by **TPRJones** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:31 pm

But they only need one programmer to do it once, and then the machines will program each other.

Post by **TheCatt** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:04 pm

TPRJones wrote:But they only need one programmer to do it once, and then the machines will program each other.

I'm going to be eternally suspicious of other programmers until I retire.

Post by **Vince** » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:07 pm

Trust no one