That #1 company is our investor at my day job.
Bad Economic Predictions
Bad Economic Predictions
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Bad Economic Predictions
Americans fear faster inflation is on the horizon.
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey, released Friday, showed that Americans’ inflation expectations for the year ahead surged this month to 4.3%, up a full percentage point from January to the highest level since November 2023.
“This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, in a release.
The survey’s sentiment index also declined in February for the second consecutive month, down 5% from January to its lowest reading since July 2024.
“The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups,” Hsu said.
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This guy says what I've been saying for a long time. The government's "strong economy" numbers are wrong.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00203464
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00203464
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Bad Economic Predictions
I love this article. (paraphrasing below)GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:47 am This guy says what I've been saying for a long time. The government's "strong economy" numbers are wrong.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... y-00203464
"U3 is a bad unemployment measure! Government workers are well-intentioned, but doing bad things!" Gee, i wonder why it's called the U3. Like, are there OTHER unemployment measures?
So yeah, the data the author wants is 1) already there and 2) provided by the government.U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
He then says the same thing about the CPI. Spoiler alert, there's at least 5 of these as well.
OK, So what's your issue?To be fair, the prevailing indicators aren’t without merit.
Dude, your indicator is (essentially) the U-6.The indicators my colleagues and I have constructed could serve as the basis for or inspiration for government-sponsored alternatives.
The headlines numbers are broad indicators, and always have been. Shocking! that nuance is needed to understand things. Duh.
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Bad Economic Predictions
One of the things I love about this country. We make new things happen.
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Bad Economic Predictions
Everybody willing to take a risk left Europe for N America a couple hundred years ago.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
Saw this being discussed on them interwebs this weekend.
A very interesting theory was floated out there suggesting that many potential Hooter's girls are now on OF, and that's hurt the chain overall.
I would say it's not nothing. Not only are many of the hottest women no longer working at Hooters, but their clientele are at home subscribed to OF and just Door Dashing food.
Hooters should try a full rebrand and get in bed with someone like Barstool. Barstool could promote the restaurants, hold events, tournaments, etc. Make Hooters event dining for bros.
Also, Hooters' spicy garlic is the best in the business. Fight me.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Bad Economic Predictions
They're fine.
Like ANY place, if the oil has gone bad, they're going to suck. Honestly, that's my biggest criticism of most wing places. It's really not hard to see burn marks on your fried foods. When that happens, change out your oil.
But that's a different topic.
Hooters has larger wings, pretty decent strips, good lunch specials, and arguably the best sauces in the business. I make it there once every couple of months.
Like ANY place, if the oil has gone bad, they're going to suck. Honestly, that's my biggest criticism of most wing places. It's really not hard to see burn marks on your fried foods. When that happens, change out your oil.
But that's a different topic.
Hooters has larger wings, pretty decent strips, good lunch specials, and arguably the best sauces in the business. I make it there once every couple of months.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Bad Economic Predictions
I can always tell when the oil needs to replaced, based on the state of my frenched fries.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
Walgreens in protracted legal battle with maker of smart doors/screens used in refrigerated items
I hate those fucking screens, and think Walgreens should burn in hell for ever using them. Can't believe they signed such a dumb contract.
I hate those fucking screens, and think Walgreens should burn in hell for ever using them. Can't believe they signed such a dumb contract.
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Bad Economic Predictions
We didn't get those at the local Walgreens here.
Also, the door company turning off the feed for a week seems like something that won't help them in court.
And yes, who the fuck thought these screens were a good idea.
Also, the door company turning off the feed for a week seems like something that won't help them in court.
And yes, who the fuck thought these screens were a good idea.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Bad Economic Predictions
Trumpcession already?
Based on tariffs starting next week, firings, etc:
Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025
Based on tariffs starting next week, firings, etc:
Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025
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Again, it doesn't work that way. Democrat administrations blame the previous R administrations for years bad news, after that terms. No one is going to accept "2 months later," now. The precedent has been set to deeply.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
Typically there's lag in economic reactions to policies. Not with tariffs.
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Bad Economic Predictions
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/stock-f ... dates.htmlTheCatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2025 1:01 pm Trumpcession already?
Based on tariffs starting next week, firings, etc:
Latest estimate: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025
Stocks super unhappy today with tariffs starting. What does Trump hate more than the American economy?
-1.5 percent estimate has changed to -2.8% for Q1 GDP.
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Bad Economic Predictions
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Bad Economic Predictions
I like his two-sided approach, encouraging production + also killing demand.Leisher wrote: ↑Tue Mar 04, 2025 11:47 am Oil prices are falling as Russia and Saudi Arabia step up production.
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