Bad Economic Predictions

[TheCatt]

But it isn't a nice, acceptable 3% COLA that social security peeps will be told is their raise this year.

Inflation since January 2021 has been about 19% cumulative.

Social Security COLAs by year:
2021 COLA 5.9%
2022 COLA 8.7%
2023 COLA 3.2%

For a cumulative change of (wait for it...) 19%. It's almost like it's indexed to inflation. Actually, that was higher than inflation, since that's just 3 years, and I was doing the 19% for 3 years + 8 months. Inflation was 17.5% through 2023.

[Leisher]

That was a good post about PEs Catt. I agree with most everything you said, except...

Maybe you've heard of Dunkin' Donuts? Man, that places sucks.

I genuinely think it does, but I accept your point about its success.

Timbits > Munchkins

+

For Tea, which is what I drink: Starbucks > Tim Horton's > Dunkin

The problem with distressed companies that PE often gets headlines for investing in (Toys R Us, etc), is that they are shitty companies that are going to die anyway. So yeah, there's probably more bankruptcies via PE because of the types of firms that PE invests in (selection bias).

This is a fair point, and I have no issue with them going after distressed companies.

It's when they go after otherwise healthy companies, like the push by Blackrock to buy Jersey Mike's. If a company is thriving, leave them the fuck alone.

And yes, I'm certain some PE firms are better than others.

I am considering your other pointed comment. I wonder how that would work out. If the ultimate goal is a stand alone company, I think I'd be very safe.

[TheCatt]

Timbits > Munchkins

Honestly, they both suck. You cannot get a good mass market donut any more.

I am considering your other pointed comment. I wonder how that would work out. If the ultimate goal is a stand alone company, I think I'd be very safe.

The good thing about PE is they often get shit done, because they know what they are doing. The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.

[Leisher]

The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.

And the pound of flesh comes at everyone else's expense.

[Cakedaddy]

Timbits > Munchkins

Honestly, they both suck. You cannot get a good mass market donut any more.

You'll pick, and support, one of two shitty candidates. But you'll put your foot down when you have to pick a donut!

[GORDON]

A donut is way more real to the great majority of people than anything said in a popularity contest where the winner gets millions.

[TheCatt]

But you'll put your foot down when you have to pick a donut!

I have standards where it matters.

We have at least four local donut places that are great... and now that I think about it slightly more, maybe 8 or so. Actually, half of those are chains, but smaller than DD, regionalish.

[TheCatt]

The bad thing is they want their pound of flesh.

And the pound of flesh comes at everyone else's expense.

If there's enough pounds of flesh to go around, everyone wins. If not, PE makes sure they get theirs.

[Cakedaddy]

We have at least four local donut places that are great... and now that I think about it slightly more, maybe 8 or so. Actually, half of those are chains, but smaller than DD, regionalish.

So what you're saying, is you like having more donuts to pick from. And you'll pick the smaller, less known, but way better donut. To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!

[Leisher]

If there's enough pounds of flesh to go around, everyone wins

True, but unfortunately, that's rare. Thus, like you, I'm not a fan of PEs. I get them, but I think they generally do more harm than good.

[TheCatt]

To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!

Yeah, except if you pick the lesser known way better donut in politics, no one gets that donut.

[GORDON]

Everyone needs to, en masse, get tired of eating the shit donut, and stop accepting the shit donut.

But just as we all know the only way to get the airlines to stop shrinking seats, and stop beating the hell out of passengers, is to STOP FLYING, for like just a week, and we aren't going to do it.

Secretly, too many people love the shit donut. They need the shit donut.

This is the kind of thing John Conner meant when he said, "We're not going to make it, are we."

[Leisher]

Everyone needs to, en masse, get tired of eating the shit donut, and stop accepting the shit donut.

This times infinity.

Stop accepting the choice between the douchebag and the turd sandwich. That's the only way this ever changes.

[TheCatt]

There's only 1 turd sandwich.

[Leisher]

There's only 1 turd sandwich.

Correct. The other is a douchebag.

[TheCatt]

There's only 1 turd sandwich.

Correct. The other is a douchebag.

Sexist!

[Leisher]

There's only 1 turd sandwich.

Correct. The other is a douchebag.

Sexist!

To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.

[TheCatt]

Correct. The other is a douchebag.

Sexist!

To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.

Racist!

[Cakedaddy]

To bad SO many people just pick the national, popular donuts, instead of trying the lesser known, but way better donut. So an inferior product rules the land, because people are too stupid, or stubborn, to pick the lesser known, but way better donut!

Yeah, except if you pick the lesser known way better donut in politics, no one gets that donut.

That's true. At the end of the day, you still have to eat the shitty donut. But at least you tried to get a better donut.

[Leisher]

Sexist!

To be fair, I was thinking Trump was the douchebag (because he is) and Kamala the turd sandwich.

Racist!

The second I hit submit on that, I knew what you would come back with. BUT IT FITS!!! Trump IS the douchebag and Kamala is the useless turd sandwich.