Bad Economic Predictions

For stuff that is general.
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Vince wrote: I just saw a chart showing that the 30 yr has been dropping pretty steady since the 80's. I can't imagine the agreement to lift the debt ceiling caps helped much.
You've confused me. The yield on the 30 yr has been dropping like a rock. Below 2% for the first time ever today/last night (iirc; At the very least, below 2% for the first time in generations).

Lifting the debt ceiling caps would mean putting more 30 year debt out (more supply), which in normal times, would depress the prices, raising the yields.
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Vince
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Vince »

I don't dispute the yield is dropping quickly recently. Just pointing out that it's been dropping for a long time.

And I agree that in normal times this would raise the yields. My concern is that our economy (world economy in general) is in the end stages of the cancer that has been spiraling debt. Though now that I think about it... never mind. I can't wrap my head around it this early in the AM (and that's after two cups of coffee already).
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

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Vince wrote: My concern is that our economy (world economy in general) is in the end stages of the cancer that has been spiraling debt. Though now that I think about it... never mind. I can't wrap my head around it this early in the AM (and that's after two cups of coffee already).
So 1990s to present Japan? Yeah, there's certainly an argument there.
Vince wrote: Just pointing out that it's been dropping for a long time.
Oh yeah, we're in a 40 year bond bull market. Sadly the primary way out is painful. Due to the inflation issues of the late 70s and early 80s, the Fed has been trying to get a lid on inflation ever since, with a 2% target. So over time, they've done what they can to keep future inflation muted. The end result is that if people finally believe in muted future inflation rates, then bond rates go down, too. (I'm simplifying here, but basically true)
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Inversion reverted after 1 day, as the entire yield curve dropped, with the 2 year dropping more than the 10 year. There are some yellow flags in the economy (housing starts, car sales), but overall things are OK. Unless people get spooked out and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

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Trump administrations says that things that totally happened "did not happen"
The White House trade advisor called it a “flat curve” because the spread was too narrow. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.623% Wednesday, briefly below the 2-year rate of 1.634%.

“An inverted yield curve requires a big spread between the short and long,” Navarro said. “All we have had is a flat curve. It’s a flat curve which is a very weak signal of any possibility.”

Investors, however, did not seem to interpret the yield curve that way on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 800 points or about 3% in its worst performance of 2019 as investors grew spooked about the U.S. economy.
...
“In this case, the flat curve is actually the result of a very strong Trump economy,” he said.
Nothing he is saying is true. Literally, nothing.
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Post by Leisher »

I’m reminded of Armageddon.

“You should know the President’s scientific advisor believes a nuclear weapon will destroy this thing.”
“I was at MIT with the President’s advisor and you don’t want to trust a man who got a D- in Astrophysics. The President’s advisors are wrong, I’m right.”

That was purely from memory, how’d I do?
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Vince »

Nothing shocking here. Trump is Trump. His people will say stupid stuff to keep him from throwing a fit. Everyone realizes they're dealing with a child.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Manufacturing sector declines (barely)
The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 49.9 in August, down from 50.4 in July and below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since September 2009, according to IHS Markit.

“Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009,” Tim Moore, economics associate director at Markit, said in a statement on Thursday.

Manufacturers continued to reduce their inventories this month, which was mainly contributed to the concerns about the demand outlook, according to Markit.

U.S. overall business activity growth also fell to a three-month low as the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropped to 50.9 in August, signalling a “renewed slowdown” in the rate of U.S. private sector business activity growth, Markit said.
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Post by GORDON »

Oh no how will they roll the army into Honk Kong without american made cars.
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Post by GORDON »

If Trump is against it then I am now for bringing in more drugs from china to kill people.
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Post by Leisher »

What did I wake up to?

CNBC's article actually discusses what I think is the biggest issue.
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said last week there are still many “structural issues” the U.S. needs to settle with China before they can reach a deal. These issues include cyber intrusion into U.S. business networks, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation, he said.
YES! Why isn't the whole world joining to force China to stop being shitty? They're still making CFCs and nobody seems to give a fuck that they're the world's #1 polluter. Nope, the world only reacts if the U.S. pulls out of a toothless and one sided Kyoto Accord.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by GORDON »

If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: What did I wake up to?

CNBC's article actually discusses what I think is the biggest issue.
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said last week there are still many “structural issues” the U.S. needs to settle with China before they can reach a deal. These issues include cyber intrusion into U.S. business networks, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation, he said.
YES! Why isn't the whole world joining to force China to stop being shitty? They're still making CFCs and nobody seems to give a fuck that they're the world's #1 polluter. Nope, the world only reacts if the U.S. pulls out of a toothless and one sided Kyoto Accord.
Seriously. Where's Europe in all of this?
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

GORDON wrote: If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.
Yes, we heard you the first 1,000 times.
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Post by TheCatt »

China started this war in the 80s, and it's sad that we've been complicit this long.
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Post by Leisher »

I use AlienVault at work to monitor my network. It's constantly scanning internally and registering when external parties scan or try to gain access to my network. You know what two countries are almost exclusively responsible for that traffic? Russia and China.

Everyone fucking knows those two do this shit, so why is nobody doing anything about it?

Trump is easily one of the largest and most divisive assholes on the planet, but isn't this exactly when everyone should be bandwagoning against China? He can take all the blame if it goes south. He can have all credit taken away easily if it goes well. He's the perfect foil to finally curb China's behavior. I really wish Europe and the political left would realize that.
TheCatt wrote: China started this war in the 80s, and it's sad that we've been complicit this long.
Yep.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: It's constantly scanning internally and registering when external parties scan or try to gain access to my network. You know what two countries are almost exclusively responsible for that traffic? Russia and China.
I remember when I ran my own firewall 15 years ago, and it was the same (albeit much less in volume) story.
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Post by GORDON »

TheCatt wrote:
GORDON wrote: If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.
Yes, we heard you the first 1,000 times.
Was that the 1001st time? Fuck, we should have celebrated the 1000th.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
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