Bad Economic Predictions
Bad Economic Predictions
We're getting some super choppy news.
Apple: Missed revenue (84M vs 87-92 predicted) due to slow sales in China (they are saying), down 9-10%
Jobs: December highest jobs added in all of 2018
ISM Manufacturing Index fell, but still in expansion: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/ism-man ... ember.html
New orders fell to 51.1 (also still in expansion, but down from 60 in November)
Delta airline announced lower revenue targets, all airline stocks down.
Apple: Missed revenue (84M vs 87-92 predicted) due to slow sales in China (they are saying), down 9-10%
Jobs: December highest jobs added in all of 2018
ISM Manufacturing Index fell, but still in expansion: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/ism-man ... ember.html
New orders fell to 51.1 (also still in expansion, but down from 60 in November)
Delta airline announced lower revenue targets, all airline stocks down.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
The last couple of months have been kind of weird.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
Two weeks after hitting 1315, it's 1633, up 25%.
Hope everyone bought
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Bad Economic Predictions
Was listening to some stats from the '09 crash. Comparing our recovery to the rest of the world's (particularly China's) is kind of jarring. Really gives some weight to the notion that the quantitative easing created a market bubble.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
This is somewhat economy stuff:
There was no skill gap, because companies have lowered their expectations given the lack of choices now.
https://www.vox.com/2019/1/7/18166951/s ... g-ballance
When unemployment was high, job requirements went up. When it went down, companies lowered their expectations. In summary, greedy companies should have been training people for the jobs instead of waiting for the government to do it. But there was no skill gap.
Fucking entitled millennials. . .
There was no skill gap, because companies have lowered their expectations given the lack of choices now.
https://www.vox.com/2019/1/7/18166951/s ... g-ballance
When unemployment was high, job requirements went up. When it went down, companies lowered their expectations. In summary, greedy companies should have been training people for the jobs instead of waiting for the government to do it. But there was no skill gap.
Fucking entitled millennials. . .
Bad Economic Predictions
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
I think the last time we didn't have a trade deficit was after the '08 crash when no one was buying anything.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
Amid another bad downturn. Weren't we close after the '08-'09 crash?TheCatt wrote:Last time was actually 1975.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
I guess it's all relative.
Was back up to $500bn by 2010.The U.S. Census Bureau reported recently that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell from $695.9 billion in 2008 to $380.7 billion in 2009, a decline of $315.3 billion (45.3%).
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Bad Economic Predictions
Yeah, I knew we shot back up rather quickly. I've never been to worried about it really. Service is the future of jobs rather than manufacturing, I suspect.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
Already is, and that's not awesome.
Huge differences in pay and benefits between those two job types.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
I've been thinking about manufacturing here in the US lately, and I wonder how much of our golden age of manufacturing was unsustainable from the get-go? We really got rolling during WWII and how much global competition did we have for the next 20 years? Every other industrial nation had the crap bombed out of them for the last 5 years or so. Add to that the rapidly expanding customer base we had coming out of the war and manufacturing was sitting pretty there for a bit. I think the massive momentum carried us for another 15-20 years after that. So late 70's to early 80's things just started to settle in to normal world distribution in a world no longer threatened with the massive scale disruption of world wars. We had no where to go but down from there. Even so, we far outpace any other country for our size, I think. We're 2nd in the world just behind China in dollars on manufacturing.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
Good speculation.
I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.
The U.S. would be tough to pull off without penalizing companies, but could be done.
The Mexico route would hurt China and strengthen Mexico. It would also do more to stop illegal immigration than any wall.
I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.
The U.S. would be tough to pull off without penalizing companies, but could be done.
The Mexico route would hurt China and strengthen Mexico. It would also do more to stop illegal immigration than any wall.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
There's a bunch of papers from the 80s and 90s on this idea (probably even the 00s, but I haven't studied economics lately). That most of post WW2 American exceptionalism was due to everyone else trying to rebuild and/or having lost a bunch of people.
Well, there are no countries our size, really, for 1st world countries. You'd have to add up most of Europe to be our equal.
In terms of per capital GDP, we're around 11th. Behind Ireland/Norway/Switzerland, etc, but ahead of Germany, UK, Sweden, etc.
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Bad Economic Predictions
Not pertaining to Trump's re-election, but the future in general... I don't think it will matter where things are being physically produced within the next 30 years because there will be almost no actual jobs in the mass manufacturing of things. I think we're seeing a transitional period as we did 150 years ago when 80-90% of the population were farmers.Leisher wrote: Good speculation.
I think if Trump wants to win the next election he has to take steps to make manufacturing here in the U.S. or in Mexico cheaper than in Asia.
The U.S. would be tough to pull off without penalizing companies, but could be done.
The Mexico route would hurt China and strengthen Mexico. It would also do more to stop illegal immigration than any wall.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
Like.... with sanctions to even out the trade imbalance?
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
Essentially, yes.
Heavily tax U.S. corporations to force them to move production back home or to Mexico.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
Yeah, that's a terrible idea.
Trump's right about an equal playing field, though.
It's not me, it's someone else.