Bad Economic Predictions
Bad Economic Predictions
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
Shitty day in the market today. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/a-rare- ... l-too.html
Down + S&P down 3%, NASDAQ down 4%.AMZN down 10% in 5 days.
Stocks have been on such a run that a correction isn't a big surprise. S&P still up 4% YTD.
Down + S&P down 3%, NASDAQ down 4%.AMZN down 10% in 5 days.
Stocks have been on such a run that a correction isn't a big surprise. S&P still up 4% YTD.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
It was kind of funny listening to business channels yesterday. Lots of words to say "we're really not sure, a combination of a few things. Probably."
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
Bad Economic Predictions
There's a few things: China, Italy, interest rates rising. But mostly I think it's a case of taking profits, and not wanting to be the one holding the bag. There's been a tremendous run up in tech this year.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
Down another 545 points (2%) for the Dow.
Tech actually only down 1%
Tech actually only down 1%
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
I forget, is Trump using the tariffs to force balanced trade and/or is he demanding China actually crack down on pirates there?
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
Former, as far I know. I've heard a little about the latter, but like 90/10
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
Economy did well in Q3
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, the government said Friday.
That's still strong, though lower than the 4.2% clip the economy grew during the second quarter. It was the sixth consecutive quarter with growth above 2%.
...
Real disposable personal income grew at an annual rate of 2.5%, the same as last quarter. That's slightly above the 2.35% average growth since the end of the last recession in late 2009. But it's considerably less than the 4.0% increase in consumer spending.
...
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure that the Federal Reserve watches carefully when deciding whether to raise interest rates, rose only 1.6% in the third quarter. That's down from 2.0% from last quarter, and considerably short of the Fed's inflation target.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
A good economy?
This is not normal.
This is not normal.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
Stock market today:
Let's go up 300 points!
Wait, but what if we went down 300 points instead?
Let's go up 300 points!
Wait, but what if we went down 300 points instead?
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
Economy added 250k jobs, wages up 3.1% 10 yr bond up 0.05 to 3.19%
This will keep pressure on the Fed to keep rates rising, as wage increases could become inflationary. Expect auto loans, mortgages, etc to keep going up. I'd hold to modest returns for the stock market through 2018-2019, especially as yields increase, and the impact of the tax cuts slows.
Recession 2020? I'd say more likely than not.
This will keep pressure on the Fed to keep rates rising, as wage increases could become inflationary. Expect auto loans, mortgages, etc to keep going up. I'd hold to modest returns for the stock market through 2018-2019, especially as yields increase, and the impact of the tax cuts slows.
Recession 2020? I'd say more likely than not.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
That'd be perfect timing for another tax cut.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
Then a new wave of government spending!
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
Breakdown in civil order 2029!
Sadly, the same year I plan to retire.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
I was assured during the Obama administration that debt spending was the only way to fix an economy, and not cutting spending, because that's 100% racist. Therefor, Leisher's suggestion is sound.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Bad Economic Predictions
I was, literally, listing the government's go to plays for each scenario. (Or did I get them backwards?)
Speaking of all this, I was stunned that my Economics book actually gave the Bush (W) administration props for its handling of the fallout from the Dot Com bust, and lightly blasted the Obama administration for not making the right moves in the Great Recession. To that point, it had typically not weighed in politically one way or another.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
Bad Economic Predictions
I've never been a fan of crediting Presidents with economic growth, so this works.
It's not me, it's someone else.
Bad Economic Predictions
7 months later... the stock market is down 2% YTD. That's a whole lot of sidewaysTheCatt wrote: Unemployment hits 3.9%.. WSJ did a big article about the last time this happened. Hint: not good news
That being said, they were comparing a single event, and the dotcom bust was pretty different from now. I would still expect stocks to be sideways, absent a trade war or strangley exceptional stock news. And interest rates to continue to climb
It's not me, it's someone else.