Don't they need a government to do anything?TheCatt wrote: World concerned Italy will leave Euro, or otherwise violate Euro covenants.
10yr bonds down to 2.84%
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“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Also a problem.Leisher wrote:Don't they need a government to do anything?TheCatt wrote: World concerned Italy will leave Euro, or otherwise violate Euro covenants.
10yr bonds down to 2.84%
10 yr closed at 2.77%... wow.
It's not me, it's someone else.
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Yay more tariffs! *sigh*
I really hope there's a master plan at work.
I really hope there's a master plan at work.
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Decently strong economic news
223k jobs added; 3.8% unemployment (lowest since 1969); wages up 2.7%. This is all pretty inflationary news (10 year up 0.08 to 2.90% on the news). If only we weren't looking at a trade war...
223k jobs added; 3.8% unemployment (lowest since 1969); wages up 2.7%. This is all pretty inflationary news (10 year up 0.08 to 2.90% on the news). If only we weren't looking at a trade war...
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When W's unemployment numbers were low, everyone said, "Yeah people have jobs, but they are bad jobs." Plus his oil crony buddies were keeping gas costs high on purpose.
When Obama's unemployment numbers were high, and people were getting fucked on insurance, and hours were getting cut to bypass the rules of Obamacare, he was a Golden God and Boyfriend, all in one. Besides, the economy is W's fault.
Now Trump's unemployment numbers are low, and this is doom and gloom, and we're all going to die. THIS IS NOT NORMAL.
When Obama's unemployment numbers were high, and people were getting fucked on insurance, and hours were getting cut to bypass the rules of Obamacare, he was a Golden God and Boyfriend, all in one. Besides, the economy is W's fault.
Now Trump's unemployment numbers are low, and this is doom and gloom, and we're all going to die. THIS IS NOT NORMAL.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
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To be fair, the % of the people employed is low/bad (blue line left axis below):
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Naturally Bernanke, a member of the global elite, wants a US recession in 2020. He hates Trump.
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I'm not hoping for one, but we're due for something. I suspect before 2020 though.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
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That sounds a LOT like the ones I posted about earlier this morning in the Trump thread...
But yeah, fucking stupid. Again, really hoping there's some master, long term plan at work. (Commence your laughing.)
But yeah, fucking stupid. Again, really hoping there's some master, long term plan at work. (Commence your laughing.)
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/busi ... ction.html
NYT article about the yield curve.
Catt, wat do?
NYT article about the yield curve.
I'll leave aside the obvious Top Gun references. This is worrisome, yet given that we know it's coming, how do we profit from it? Or at least, not lose our shirts? Short the S&P?On Thursday, the gap between two-year and 10-year United States Treasury notes was roughly 0.34 percentage points. It was last at these levels in 2007 when the United States economy was heading into what was arguably the worst recession in almost 80 years.
As scary as references to the financial crisis sound, flattening alone does not mean that the United States is doomed to slip into another recession. But if it keeps moving in this direction, eventually long-term interest rates will fall below short-term rates.
When that happens, the yield curve has “inverted.” An inversion is seen as “a powerful signal of recessions,” as the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, said this year, and that’s what everyone is watching for.
Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...
Catt, wat do?
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SInce it's still Trump's first term we can still blame it all on Obama, right? Political points are the important thing.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
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More from the article:
We actually sold a bunch of stocks toward the end of last year and bought land. There's deer and a spring, so fuck you bitches if society goes to hell, at least.
I guess that it won't be practical to be short the market, since the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent. But still, there must be some general strategy.An important caveat to the predictive power of the yield curve is that it can’t predict precisely when a recession will begin. In the past the recession has come in as little as six months, or as long as two years, after the inversion, the San Francisco Fed’s researchers note.
We actually sold a bunch of stocks toward the end of last year and bought land. There's deer and a spring, so fuck you bitches if society goes to hell, at least.
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Give me GPS coordinates so Vince and I can invade and annex, after the fall.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
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I addressed this beforehand.
The signal is distorted, so I'd be hesitant to read too much in to it this time around, at least as in regards to as a historical indicator. The main issue this time would be fear from a massive trade war, but the trade war is the signal, the yield would just be reacting.
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"This time is different?" Hm. Ok.
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But does every inverted curve lead to a recession? If the recession happens two years later, was the invert really a sign? Did the curve recover, then recession? Two years of invert? Has there ever been an invert, recover, then invert again before a recession hit?Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...