Coronavirus

Post by **thibodeaux** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:55 pm

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327
Good news!

Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study estimates

The overall death rate from covid-19 has been estimated at 0.66%, rising sharply to 7.8% in people aged over 80 and declining to 0.0016% in children aged 9 and under.

Ok, how do they know?

The estimates, calculated by researchers in the UK, used aggregate data on cases and deaths in mainland China. Unlike other estimates, however, they adjusted for undiagnosed cases and the number of people in each age group of a population.

Never mind, likely garbage-in, garbage-out.

Post by **TheCatt** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:07 pm

thibodeaux wrote: Unlike other estimates, however, they adjusted for undiagnosed cases and the number of people in each age group of a population.

So they took the undiagnosed data from Germany or South Korea, or similar where testing is much more widespread, and applied it to China, where we've seen the disease run its course (as far as we know/the government tells us).

Reasonable statistical method. Obviously some +/- there. The study notes its own limitations.

Post by **Cakedaddy** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:13 pm

GORDON wrote: 2. They are accurate. Most of those who are dying were already compromised by another illness. Also CDC data.

So you are confirming that if someone has any underlying issue (including just being old) that their death does not count towards the COVID death count. That to me, is insane. Again, a 70 year old gets hit by us bus. You are arguing he died of old age. All I can do is shrug my shoulders.

Post by **Cakedaddy** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:18 pm

GORDON wrote: I know that's a little on the callous side, but everybody's gonna die, no matter what. I don't want to go back to a shitty economy, I want my favorite local chinese buffet to not go out of business

Post by **GORDON** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:30 pm

"Going to die soon" is almost the defining characteristic of being elderly.

And if an 80 year old gets it, chances are still small they'll die from it.

Post by **Leisher** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:56 am

I think there is sound reasoning, even if it comes off as cold, behind allowing vulnerable folks to be exposed in the name of protecting the economy. Protecting the economy would be for the greater good. (Yes, that movie quote was intentional.)

However, I also believe there is something to be said for a "forest fire" hitting our economy. Sure, it'll suck for a bit, but weaker businesses will go under, some employees will see this as motivation to improve themselves to find better employment, other companies will rise up to fill market demand, people and companies will (theoretically) learn from this and be better prepared for similar events in the future, and so on.

Without being able to view the various timelines, who knows what was the correct course of action?

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:26 am

Germany has drawn up a list of measures, including an obligation to wear masks in public, limits on public gatherings and the rapid tracing of infection chains, that officials think should allow life to return to normal after lockdown’s scheduled end on April 19.

I wonder what it's like to live in a country with plans.

Post by **thibodeaux** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:28 am

TheCatt wrote:
Germany has drawn up a list of measures, including an obligation to wear masks in public, limits on public gatherings and the rapid tracing of infection chains, that officials think should allow life to return to normal after lockdown’s scheduled end on April 19.
I wonder what it's like to live in a country with plans.

You know who had a plan???

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:30 am

thibodeaux wrote: You know who had a plan???

lol. Germans + their plans.

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:42 am

So... is that an aberration, or are things finally working?

Post by **thibodeaux** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 am

I saw that too. We've had a couple of those blips (3/24 and 3/29). But this one was pretty big. Hopefully it's not something awful like 10k sick people didn't get tested yesterday bc they were in church...

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:01 am

Yeah, 3/29 was a Sunday, with a blip. But 3/22 was not. 3/15 - maybe. Guess we'll see what today's numbers look like.

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:47 pm

Pastor downplayed coronavirus, went to Mardi Gras. Got virus, died.

Orlando pastor broke distance rules, loses insurance for church.

"You don't need sanitizer, you need faith" woman dies or virus.

Post by **thibodeaux** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:29 pm

My 101yo grandmother’s in a nursing home. Still alive and not infect AFAIK. Helps that she’s in one of the lowest population parishes of Louisiana.

Post by **TheCatt** » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:21 pm

Wake county reported only 4 cases (on Sunday). Tonight that got updated to 11 (for Sunday). Wonder if that will happen elsewhere or was isolated

Post by **GORDON** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:38 am

The global numbers are higher than yesterday, but not as high as the day before.

Post by **GORDON** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:49 am

Anyone have a good aggregate page for tracking? I wanted to see if the "predicted peak" date changed, but the link I used for that before ended up being an updating page, and that info aint there any more.

Post by **Leisher** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:02 am

Wisconsin primaries will continue today per their state supreme court. And, of course, it's an evil R plot to kill people.

Other states' supreme courts have made the same ruling, and they're not all R states. I know in Ohio's case the health department shut the primary down after their courts said the primary would go on.

P.S. You know who wants the primary postponed? Sanders. He has publicly called for it. You know who hasn't said shit? Biden. I wonder why...

Boris Johnson is in the ICU with the coronavirus.

Texas now has cornoavirus checkpoints up on their Louisiana border.

Scientists are certain this came from bats, but "how" is still under debate.

The lab theory is interesting. China's lack of reporting and then blaming U.S. servicemen makes it seem even more likely. Like they were scrambling to cover their asses.

Health workers are testing positive at crazy rates.

Amazon workers in Chicago protesting as positive cases grow in their facility.

Cornoavirus reduces crime rates.

POCs worried about wearing masks in public.

Legit concern or victim mentality at play?

Post by **TheCatt** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:10 am

Leisher wrote: Health workers are testing positive at crazy rates.

Hopefully they'll all get immune fast?

Leisher wrote: Cornoavirus reduces crime rates.

I was reading about shutdown businesses being robbed, but I guess net net, crime is down.

Leisher wrote: POCs worried about wearing masks in public.

I saw a picture yesterday of a bandana wearing gangster from the 90s. "1990-2019 - Ganster; 2020 - Responsible Adult"

Post by **GORDON** » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:33 am

I have wondered how one wears a mask into a bank, when sunglasses and hats are illegal in mine.